|
|
Marlin1894
Elite user
436 Posts
|
Posted: May 2, 2012 5:04pm
Do any of you guys know anything about, or follow, horse racing at all? Maybe just the Triple Crown events here in the US? The first saturday in May means Kentucky Derby time. Looks like it could be another wild run for the roses with a full field of 20 three year olds who are all relatively healthy. Most of the big names are in the picture and look to be set to go on sat.
Any predictions or thoughts?
|
Ruairidh
Regular user
London
191 Posts
|
Posted: May 2, 2012 5:27pm
No predictions but I won £700 on the Grand National last year.
|
Marlin1894
Elite user
436 Posts
|
Posted: May 4, 2012 10:26am
KENTUCKY DERBY |PURSE: $2 MILLION |GRADE 1 |3-YEAR-OLDS |1 1/4 MILES
Post Horse Jockey Morning Line Odds
1 Daddy Long Legs C. O'Donoghue 30-1
2 Optimizer J. Court 50-1
3 Take Charge Indy C. Borel 15-1
4 Union Rags J. Leparoux 9-2
5 Dullahan K. Desormeaux 8-1
6 Bodemiester M. Smith 4-1
7 Rousing Sermon J. Lezcano 50-1
8 Creative Cause J. Rosario 12-1
9 Trinniberg W. Martinez 50-1
10 Daddy Nose Best G. Gomez 15-1
11 Alpha R. Maragh 15-1
12 Prospective L. Contreras 30-1
13 Went The Day Well J. Velazquez 20-1
14 Hansen R. Dominguez 10-1
15 Gemologist J. Castellano 6-1
16 El Padrino R. Bejarano 20-1
17 Done Talking S. Russell 50-1
18 Sabercat C. Nakatani 30-1
19 I'll Have Another M. Gutierrez 12-1
20 Liaison M. Garcia 50-1
|
the dealer
Regular user
las vegas
190 Posts
|
Posted: May 5, 2012 4:01pm
Alright boys and girls ...we want 15 with the 5-6 or 6-5 in the race...and the fight to end in a knockout before the 9th round....and a cotto win would be sweet.
|
iamslow
Inner circle
Proffessional Slacker
1816 Posts
|
Posted: May 5, 2012 4:36pm
If cotto wins tonight, it would help boxing...
"Everyone is tough till they get punched in the face" Mike Tyson
|
the dealer
Regular user
las vegas
190 Posts
|
Posted: May 5, 2012 5:27pm
Well I'm hoping he does. even though mayweather will most likely win...all it takes is one punch though, we seen it happen to tyson. if cotto does win, who is pacquiao gonna fight?...hehe.....also, its a supermoon tonight...so anything can happen. lol.
|
acesover
Special user
I believe I have
983 Posts
|
Posted: May 5, 2012 8:43pm
What do the above posts have to do with the Kentucky Derby? 
Lasciate ogni speranza, voi ch’entrate!”]
|
the dealer
Regular user
las vegas
190 Posts
|
Posted: May 5, 2012 8:44pm
My first post did...then we drifted off....happens all the time.
|
Marlin1894
Elite user
436 Posts
|
Posted: May 25, 2012 10:25am
One leg left.
June 9th. Same date Secretariat destroyed the field at Belmont and won the Triple Crown. It's gonna be exciting.
|
Marlin1894
Elite user
436 Posts
|
Posted: Jun 7, 2012 10:46am
1. Street Life -- Jose Lezcano -- 12-1
2. Unstoppable U -- Junior Alvarado -- 30-1
3. Union Rags -- John Velazquez -- 6-1
4. Atigun -- Julien Leparoux -- 30-1
5. Dullahan -- Javier Castellano -- 5-1
6. Ravelo's Boy -- Alex Solis -- 50-1
7. Five Sixteen -- Rosie Napravnilk -- 50-1
8. Guyana Star Dweej -- Kent Desormeaux -- 50-1
9. Paynter -- Mike Smith -- 8-1
10. Optimizer -- Corney Nakatani -- 20-1
11. I'll Have Another -- Mario Gutierrez -- 4-5
12. My Adonis -- Ramon Dominguez -- 20-1
I'll Have Another drew the 11th spot. Not great but that shouldn't be a big problem in itself. He drew the 9 gate in a field of 11 for the Preakness, and was way out in that 19 spot at the Derby. He doesn't seem to mind where he's lined up.
Unfortunately, he won't have Bodemeister to chase down this time. I would like to have seen them go head to head one more time, especially over the 1-1/2 mile. I'll Have Another would be a very unlikely Triple Crown winner in my opinion but I would love to see him pull it off. It's going to be an exciting race. I may post my handicapping handi-work later tommorow or sat in case anyone wants to get rich quick.
|
Marlin1894
Elite user
436 Posts
|
Posted: Jun 8, 2012 12:30pm
I'll Have Another - SCRATCHED.
|
Marlin1894
Elite user
436 Posts
|
Posted: Jun 9, 2012 6:29pm
Bet it all on Union Rags.
|
Marlin1894
Elite user
436 Posts
|
Posted: May 1, 2013 12:12pm
^ You could have been rich ^
Derby Day coming up this saturday. Very deep and competitive field. Verrazano, Orb, and Goldcents look to be early favs.
|
Marlin1894
Elite user
436 Posts
|
Posted: May 3, 2013 10:48am
Well your guess is as good as mine. Looks like another Derby where several horses have a chance to win. It seems ripe for an upset, but all of the longshots seem to be either too slow, or are not coming into the race very well prepared. Throw in the very good chance of a wet track and who knows what could happen.
Todd Pletcher has five horses in the field, D. Wayne Lukas, has only two. Bob Baffert doesn’t have any. Shug McGaughey is a Hall of Fame trainer who rarely enters a horse in the Derby but has one of this years favorites in Orb.
I will be betting this race but I'm not sure how yet. I have thoughts on each horse in this race (too many thoughts, really) but for now, since a race like this is so hard to figure, and since there aren't many, if any, race fans here I will just touch on a few or the favorites and a couple of longshots, then make my big prediction.
First, the three favorites I mentioned above.
#14 VERRAZANO---He’s had four races and won them all. A very talented horse but pretty inexperienced. Of the five horses Pletcher has in the race I guess most would say this is his best shot. If anything, a wet track would probably help him and he has one of the best jocks in the country aboard. He'll be bet very heavily, and for good reason I suppose. Although, from what I hear there just isn't much of a buzz around Verrazano at Churchill Downs.
#16 ORB--- He'll probably win it. He’s won four straight and dominated the Florida Derby. Joel Rosario is one of the hottest jocks in the country right now. That's favorable because this horse will most likely be coming from way, way, back and may require an almost perfect ride. Navigating through that giant field has gotten many great horses beaten. If the conditions favor pure speed he'll get smoked. Lots of good buzz about his workouts at Churchill Downs and most people have pegged him as the probable winner for weeks. But his winning times are actually pretty slow, and the fact that I think he will require a near perfect ride bother me. Still, if I had to just pick one horse to win outright, I suppose it would be Orb.
#8 GOLDENCENTS--- This is kind of a hard horse to figure. Trained by last years Derby winner, the always controversial Doug “Drug” O’Neill. Not much to say. This horse likes to run and may try to go wire to wire with this thing. His jockey does not have a ton of experience but had an excellent ride in their win at the Santa Anita Derby. If the track is favoring speed this horse jumps WAY up in my opinion.
Now the longshots
#11 LINES OF BATTLE---Maybe this will be Tommys favorite. The foreign INVADER! His trainer is an Irish legend named Aidan O’Brien who has won just about every race ever known, but never had a horse finish better than fifth at the Derby. LOB may have the best breeding in this field and cruised in that Dubai Derby a little over a month ago. Wet track shouldn't bother him, unlike a lot of Euro horses he is bred for mudding. It would be interesting if he did win, I don't think there has ever been a Kentucky Derby winner where the trainer didn't even show up for the race. Dubai has never had much of an impact on the Derby but one day that will change. Maybe Saturday. My favorite longshot.
#5 NORMANDY INVASION---I believe he could win this thing. He has the breeding for the distance, a good jockey, and a good young trainer. They have targeted this race and worked towards it for 5 months. They say his woorkouts the last couple of weeks have been a bit odd. Fast early and slow late. Ugh. He has a come from behind style which is fine as long as he can navigate the field. A wet track shouldn't be an issue. Normandy Invasion went a little mental and ran off with his exercise rider yesterday. But I think he's just feeling his oats. There is a chance here.
And one more:
#3 REVOLUTIONARY---Here is another Pletcher-trained horse and I would pick him to win in an instant if not for the #3 position and Calvin Borel. The horse has won three in a row and has been very well trained, but those inside post positions are murder at the Derby. Normally, that wouldn't really be a problem wih Calvin "Bo-Rail" aboard. Calvin has won three Kentucky Derbys and is an absolute legend at Churchill Downs. But there is something wrong with Borel, he has been riding poorly for the last two years now. A string of injuries seem to have him riding, for lack of a better word, scared. Based on the last couple of years I don't have a lot of confidence. Still, this is the Derby and if the Calvin Borel of old shows up he could put this horse right into the winners circle.
Anyway, here is my prediction for the order of finish. Top five spots (I may expand to ten if I have time to revisit this post). These five should figure prominently on my tickets.
HORSE# HORSE PROGRAM ODDS
16 ORB 7-2
11 LINES OF BATTLE 30-1
5 NORMANDY INVASION 12-1
3 REVOLUTIONARY 10-1
14 VERRAZANO 4-1
Guesses all, obviously. It's the Derby and the Derby is wild and unpredictable. Mine That Bird won in 2010 so that shows that *** near anything is possible in this race. I'm picking Orb but I'm not super high on him. It will pay to be extra flexible depending on track conditions etc. Depending on the track some horses may be downgraded or elevated. If the track is muddy but drying, closers will be more attractive to me. If it's wet but sealed, the speed demons will probably rise to the top. If it's a slopfest, who knows?
More than anything Derby Day is just plain fun! So hopefully we will have an exciting race.
If anyone has any thoughts I'd love to hear them.
P.S. If Vyjack wins this thing they are going to be holding Congressional hearings on horse racing.
|
tommy
Eternal Order
Devil’s Island
13343 Posts
|
Posted: May 3, 2013 12:04pm
I have had little bet on Revolutionary and hoping for rain.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.
Tommy
|
Marlin1894
Elite user
436 Posts
|
Posted: May 3, 2013 12:17pm
Good Luck! I think he's a great horse and I would love to see Borel win another one. He is going to have to summon up that fearless style he was so well known for. If he gets a clean start (twice Revolutionary has been slammed coming out of the gate and couldn't make up the time. But those were shorter races) and if Borel can get the rail, which is his world, they might be sporting roses.
|
Marlin1894
Elite user
436 Posts
|
Posted: May 4, 2013 2:32pm
Don't you wish you could lock in the odds when you placed your bet? The money is pouring in for Revolutionary. Down to 5-1
|
tommy
Eternal Order
Devil’s Island
13343 Posts
|
Posted: May 4, 2013 4:54pm
I took 10 - 1 hoping for rain for what it's worth, they said it what was 40% chance of rain and I knew it would shorten if it did.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.
Tommy
|
Marlin1894
Elite user
436 Posts
|
Posted: May 17, 2013 1:07pm
Well the record will show that my #1 pick won, my 3rd place pick finished fourth, and my 4th place pick finished 3rd. Longshot Lines of Battle finished 7th but far outran his 35-1 odds.
I have already broken down the Preakness. I have three really good bets lined up, which I was going to post. But since, you know, I know jack **** about gambling and everything I'll just hold on to them. Yes, I believe Orb can win and I believe given this crop of three year olds he could actually pull off the Triple Crown. We'll see.
You'll probably never get rich beting on this race. It's not a freaking 20 horse rodeo like the Derby, but then again it's easier to handicap. Basically I think it's Orb or Mylute to win. Mylute will be a better value but I favor Orb. The longshot Titletown Five is a sentimental favorite becuase I'm a big Green Bay (Titletown) Packers fan and the horse is owned by Packer Legend (and a bit of a gambling legend himself having been suspended from pro ball for gambling on NFL games while an active player) Paul "The Golden Boy" Hornung. Good old number 5.
30-1 shots don't win the Preakness but I believe Titletown Five will push the pace which should help Orb. A lot of people are predicting a fairly reasonable pace, but I think the presense of Titletown Five will lead to a fast paced race. After much back and forth I've picked Orb to win. I'm looking foward to this race big time.
|
acesover
Special user
I believe I have
983 Posts
|
Posted: May 21, 2013 12:59am
Whoops. Little miscalculation there.  That's why they call it a "horse race" and that is why they call it gambling.
Lasciate ogni speranza, voi ch’entrate!”]
|
Marlin1894
Elite user
436 Posts
|
Posted: May 21, 2013 8:53am
No doubt. In retrospect I should have given Oxbow more respect, everyone should have. All in all it wan't a major disaster for me, but it would have been a lot better if Orb would have at least finished in the money. I knew Itsmyluckyday and Mylute were going to be right there, but Orb had a terrible day. Once again I have to wonder if I'll see another Triple Crown winner in my lifetime. Orb isn't some kind of superhorse or anything but I really thought given what's out there he had a chance. On to Belmont.
|
| The Magic Cafe Forum Index » » The Gambling Spot » » The Sport of Kings |
|
|
