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Topic: Hurricane Jose
Message: Posted by: ed rhodes (Sep 12, 2017 12:09PM)
Originally, they predicted Jose was going to swing out to sea and miss almost everyone. Latest predictions I've seen show it swinging a little further West than expected and possibly contacting the mid-Atlantic states. :eek:
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Sep 12, 2017 12:33PM)
Https://www.google.com/amp/www.orlandosentinel.com/weather/hurricane/os-hurricane-jose-tuesday-0912-story,amp.html

I bet it doesn't stop them from scaring puerile though.
Message: Posted by: tommy (Sep 12, 2017 05:07PM)
Who thinks up these hurricane names?
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Sep 12, 2017 06:47PM)
[quote]On Sep 12, 2017, Dannydoyle wrote:
Https://www.google.com/amp/www.orlandosentinel.com/weather/hurricane/os-hurricane-jose-tuesday-0912-story,amp.html

I bet it doesn't stop them from scaring puerile though. [/quote]

People not puerile.
Message: Posted by: ed rhodes (Sep 12, 2017 07:46PM)
[quote]On Sep 12, 2017, Dannydoyle wrote:
Https://www.google.com/amp/www.orlandosentinel.com/weather/hurricane/os-hurricane-jose-tuesday-0912-story,amp.html

I bet it doesn't stop them from scaring puerile though. [/quote]

I'm assuming you mean people, and no, if Jose dwindles to a tropical storm before teaching land, I'm certain the news people will warn people not to take even a tropical storm lightly, but I doubt you'll see the; stock up on provisions, get to high ground, go to a shelter, response you got from Harvey and Irene.

I hardly think warning people of the risks involved constitutes "scaring." Or if it does, it's NECESSARY scaring in the face of two monster storms! I'm just glad Jose isn't looking to make it a hat trick!
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Sep 12, 2017 09:12PM)
[quote]On Sep 12, 2017, ed rhodes wrote:
[quote]On Sep 12, 2017, Dannydoyle wrote:
Https://www.google.com/amp/www.orlandosentinel.com/weather/hurricane/os-hurricane-jose-tuesday-0912-story,amp.html

I bet it doesn't stop them from scaring puerile though. [/quote]

I'm assuming you mean people, and no, if Jose dwindles to a tropical storm before teaching land, I'm certain the news people will warn people not to take even a tropical storm lightly, but I doubt you'll see the; stock up on provisions, get to high ground, go to a shelter, response you got from Harvey and Irene.

I hardly think warning people of the risks involved constitutes "scaring." Or if it does, it's NECESSARY scaring in the face of two monster storms! I'm just glad Jose isn't looking to make it a hat trick! [/quote]

Want to spellcheck this post? Or is it just mine?

Or do you mean the hurricane will teach the land?

And there is no such thing as NECESSARY scaring.
Message: Posted by: ed rhodes (Sep 13, 2017 07:59AM)
[quote]On Sep 12, 2017, Dannydoyle wrote:
[quote]On Sep 12, 2017, ed rhodes wrote:
[quote]On Sep 12, 2017, Dannydoyle wrote:
Https://www.google.com/amp/www.orlandosentinel.com/weather/hurricane/os-hurricane-jose-tuesday-0912-story,amp.html

I bet it doesn't stop them from scaring puerile though. [/quote]

I'm assuming you mean people, and no, if Jose dwindles to a tropical storm before teaching land, I'm certain the news people will warn people not to take even a tropical storm lightly, but I doubt you'll see the; stock up on provisions, get to high ground, go to a shelter, response you got from Harvey and Irene.

I hardly think warning people of the risks involved constitutes "scaring." Or if it does, it's NECESSARY scaring in the face of two monster storms! I'm just glad Jose isn't looking to make it a hat trick! [/quote]

Want to spellcheck this post? Or is it just mine?

Or do you mean the hurricane will teach the land?

And there is no such thing as NECESSARY scaring. [/quote]

Stupid auto-correct!

Are you suggesting the news media DOWNPLAY the potential effects of storms?
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Sep 13, 2017 10:04AM)
I'm suggesting that don't overhype them.
Message: Posted by: ed rhodes (Sep 13, 2017 12:01PM)
How do you overhype a category 5 storm?
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Sep 13, 2017 01:40PM)
Ok you fell for it. Got it
Message: Posted by: NYCTwister (Sep 13, 2017 02:02PM)
Actually a story designating Irma as a category 6 was shared over 2 million times.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Sep 13, 2017 02:09PM)
Indeed that is one way to over hype it.
Message: Posted by: 0pus (Sep 14, 2017 06:57AM)
Nigel Tufnel said it went to 11.
Message: Posted by: ed rhodes (Sep 14, 2017 08:26AM)
I did not see any reliable media call Irma a 6. 5 was the most I saw and downgraded to a 4 as soon as it hit land.

What stupid people on social media choose to share is not the fault of the news.

The damage to Texas from Harvey is in the billions.
The damage to Florida from Irma is in the billions.
(Although less than anticipated since the brunt of the storm missed both Miami and Tampa.)
There is no way those storms were over hyped.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Sep 14, 2017 10:38AM)
Ed there was a run on water in Miami a full week probably 10 days prior to it NOT hitting Miami. The storm was WAY over hyped. The FEMA director said nobody in Florida had lived through a storm that strong, yet Andrew and Charlie both hit Florida in our lifetimes. Over hype sorry. Just because you didn't see it doesn't mean it never happened.

I lived in Florida through the season they had 5 storms hit. Right in Key Largo and trust me it is WAY over hyped.
Message: Posted by: slowkneenuh (Sep 14, 2017 11:38AM)
The NWS is in a unique position. With hype and a hit they are heroes. With hype and a miss they are fools. With no hype and a hit they are dangerously incompetent. With no hype and a miss they are ignored. With Irma, given the magnitude of the storm and the uncertain track until the last moments I believe they made the right call. Sadly, I guess people want devastation once they are told to expect it and if they don't get it someones not doing their job.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Sep 14, 2017 11:46AM)
Do you know how much it costs a tourist community when they are evacuated for no reason? The economic impact is absolutely horrible. Not as bad as being hit, but certainly preventable, unlike bring hit.
Message: Posted by: slowkneenuh (Sep 14, 2017 12:07PM)
How can you say there was no reason. They had every reason to issue the warnings. Look at the islands in the Caribbean, look at the size of the storm in strength, breadth and depth. There were no signs in advance that it would weaken or change course. Just a "possibility". To ignore the warnings were a gamble. Like a bet, some folks made out and others didn't. I don't gamble when the threat of death is a possible outcome.

Although I was in New Hampshire during the storm it cost me a significant amount of time and money to evacuate my loved ones, and that's not including canceling my eagerly anticipated trip to the west coast, in order to assist them, for a relaxing vacation. When all was said and done they had minor damage and inconvenience but the peace of mind on all of our parts was well worth it.

By the way, it was kind of ironic in that I had them go to Orlando and at the last minute it was headed there. Fortunately it weakened and passed in between Tampa and Orlando.

P.S. For the pet lovers, lodging cost $270.00 per dog. More than the per person rate.
Message: Posted by: ed rhodes (Sep 16, 2017 05:17AM)
[quote]On Sep 14, 2017, Dannydoyle wrote:
Ed there was a run on water in Miami a full week probably 10 days prior to it NOT hitting Miami. The storm was WAY over hyped. The FEMA director said nobody in Florida had lived through a storm that strong, yet Andrew and Charlie both hit Florida in our lifetimes. Over hype sorry. Just because you didn't see it doesn't mean it never happened.

I lived in Florida through the season they had 5 storms hit. Right in Key Largo and trust me it is WAY over hyped. [/quote]

A week, ten days before landfall, the best projected path was Miami. There could be no way of knowing the storm would swerve or weaken so quickly. Warnings were given based on the information available. If people choose to over react OR ignore that information, that doesn't make the information incorrect.

How many of the storms you lived through were four or fives?
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Sep 16, 2017 10:18AM)
2. Chaley in Florida and Emily in Tulum.

So what? WAY over hyped.

I get that forecasting is a double edge blade. Error on the side of caution. But I am telling you that when tourist areas are evacuated for no reason, which happened 4 times in one year to the Keys, it has a very large economic impact and some businesses close for good. Worse yet is there is no relief without damages. FEMA issues no disaster relief money to areas evacuated for no reason. The victims have no place to turn.

You really are missing my point because effectively you are saying "well yes they went out of business and have no relief and lost almost as much as if the storm hit them because of the actions of FEMA but better safe than sorry".
Message: Posted by: ed rhodes (Sep 16, 2017 04:20PM)
How much do you think the tourist industry would suffer if a few tourists died in each storm because someone didn't want to upset the financial apple cart?
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Sep 16, 2017 04:43PM)
That is a false dichotomy.

Why are the only choices over hype or people die? How ridicules.

Why is everything portrayed in the scariest possible terms in some ridiculous idea that it is how you get people to act?

But congratulations, you fall for it.
Message: Posted by: ed rhodes (Sep 16, 2017 07:00PM)
I'm sorry. When people decide to "sit out" a class 5 or class 4 hurricane, it rarely turns out well.
Message: Posted by: NYCTwister (Sep 16, 2017 08:26PM)
[quote]On Sep 16, 2017, ed rhodes wrote:
I'm sorry. When people decide to "sit out" a class 5 or class 4 hurricane, it rarely turns out well. [/quote]

And yet my family, in the heart of Florida, decided to gather in what's essentially a large metal kite and "see what happens."

Which turned out to be nothing. Now they're going around saying how smart they were to "trust their instincts."

Sometimes, when I think about my bloodline, I shudder.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Sep 16, 2017 08:52PM)
[quote]On Sep 16, 2017, ed rhodes wrote:
I'm sorry. When people decide to "sit out" a class 5 or class 4 hurricane, it rarely turns out well. [/quote]

You have no clue how it turns out because all you do is read about it Ed.

And when did I advocate doing such a thing? You keep making up stuff nobody ever says and acting like it is insightful. I never once said people should not leave. Show me where I said that.
Message: Posted by: ed rhodes (Sep 17, 2017 06:54AM)
Then what were you suggesting? You complained that the storm was over hyped and that evacuation is bad for the tourist industry.

So what, in your estimated opinion, should have been done about a class 4or 5 storm barreling down on a heavily populated area? Be aware that you don't have the hindsight to know it's going to swerve and NOT hit those areas with full force,

You're annoyed at the coverage they did give but you're saying you're NOT suggesting staying put. So what ARE you suggesting they do?
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Sep 17, 2017 12:01PM)
You seem to be the only one who doesn't get my point.

THEY OVER HYPED THE DANGER. What word gives you all the trouble Ed?
Message: Posted by: ed rhodes (Sep 17, 2017 04:12PM)
Because I don't believe they did! A category 5 storm looked to be approaching a heavily populated area and it was reported as such. No one could have known the storm would veer or lose power so quickly. They "hyped" the danger of a dangerous storm which then fooled everyone and did something unexpected.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Sep 17, 2017 06:31PM)
So economic impact of businesses that have been for decades and now are gone because of hype is fine with you.

Why do you think the only 2 possible solutions are over hype or dead people Ed you still haven't answered that.

Whatever you fell for it, and it doesn't affect you so who cares right? People lose businesses and that is just fine with you.
Message: Posted by: ed rhodes (Sep 17, 2017 08:47PM)
It is NOT fine with me, but I still don't believe they over-hyped a class 5 storm that looked to cause great damage.

If they had "under played" the potential damage the storm presented and people had NOT prepared or evacuated, how much worse would we be now?
Message: Posted by: ed rhodes (Sep 17, 2017 08:48PM)
By the way. Who's gone specifically from "the hype?"
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Sep 17, 2017 09:47PM)
[quote]On Sep 17, 2017, ed rhodes wrote:
It is NOT fine with me, but I still don't believe they over-hyped a class 5 storm that looked to cause great damage.

If they had "under played" the potential damage the storm presented and people had NOT prepared or evacuated, how much worse would we be now? [/quote]

So just over hype and consequences be hanged. Gotcha.
Message: Posted by: slowkneenuh (Sep 17, 2017 11:57PM)
Danny, you're way off base on this one. Whether you intended to or not you are saying economic considerations should drive safety concerns. You cannot tell whether something is overhyped until it is over and done with. You seem to ignore the devastation that did take place because it was less severe than anticipated. Sorry to say, you are the one that doesn't get it.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Sep 18, 2017 12:20AM)
I lived through the economic devistation of overvhype. It is very real. I watched dive shops, catamaran tours, fishing guide, bed and breakfasts an on and on go belly up because 4 times they evacuated an area that didn't need to be.

This is not economic considerations alone it is their lives. Bankrupt but that doesn't matter to you does it? No of course not because it is more important to be scared than find better ways. Fear is a better way to communicate.

But ratings are far more important than what happens to others.
Message: Posted by: slowkneenuh (Sep 18, 2017 01:10AM)
If businesses went belly up after four unnecessary evacuations, there must have been other underlying factors. Their lives and property were safe each time and their loss was restricted to a lack of customer revenue and personal evacuation expenses for a few days, There are ways some of that loss can be made up. Assuming there was only one unnecessary evacuation per year, or at most two, the number of days impacted is rather small considering the number of days in the whole season. One would also expect those businesses to consider severe weather risks as a cost of doing business in those areas.

The National Weather Service doesn't hype a forecast. At any given point in time they know the current strength and direction and a projected strength and direction. Obviously the closer it gets to an area the more accurate it is. Considering what was known about Irma you would have been gambling with your life if you did not acknowledge the forecast and take appropriate action. So it weakened and changed direction. But if it hadn't, it would have been too late to take any precautionary actions if you hadn't already based on the warnings.

You are also confusing being scared with being prudent. A big difference.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Sep 18, 2017 01:23AM)
You have no clue the business model of tourist spots do you? Plus it is the loss of revenue for 2 weeks, 4 times. You do the math on how many weeks are in summer and get back to me since you're such an expert.

Most of them operate week to week if they are lucky. So screw them they didn't plan but at least we were prudent but not scared?

Nobody said ignoreanything by the way
Nobody said don't prepare. But don't tell me it isn't over hyped when clearly it is.

Sorry but they scare people and it is stupid.
Message: Posted by: tommy (Sep 18, 2017 04:51AM)
Setting up a business where hurricanes, tropical depressions, and tropical storms happen regularly, is a risk one ought to think about before doing it.
Message: Posted by: ed rhodes (Sep 18, 2017 10:47PM)
Well, brace yourself because Maria has been designated a Category 5 hurricane and is going to slam in Puerto Rico. Unless it changes course dramatically, the east side of Florida will be next.
Message: Posted by: Dynamike (Sep 18, 2017 11:13PM)
I rather listen to someone who knows way more than me when it comes to weather disasters. Better safe than sorry.

Houston residents are angry they were not warned about Hurricane Harvey sooner.

Danny, would you rather be over hyped or under hyped when it comes to a hurricane headed for your area? Just curious.
Message: Posted by: Dynamike (Sep 18, 2017 11:29PM)
[quote]On Sep 18, 2017, Dannydoyle wrote:

Sorry but they scare people and it is stupid. [/quote]

https://goo.gl/images/134Krd

So that is just a scare? I am sorry too, Danny. But my sorry goes to those who were part of the disaster. That is why I send donations.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Sep 18, 2017 11:59PM)
What you fail to comprehend is that those who lose houses and businesses because of overvhype ARE victims as well. You guys jay don't seem to care is all.

What is the difference if you lose your business to the storm or needles loss of revenue? The difference is you don't get disaster relief from government or charities when it is the latter. But it's still families who are affected, but you guys just don't seem to care.

Why are the only 2 choices over hype or under? Why not just do it right?
Message: Posted by: slowkneenuh (Sep 19, 2017 12:04AM)
Instead of bullying and insulting our intelligence and compassion, why don't you admit you are wrong and move on to a topic where your opinion is more plausible.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Sep 19, 2017 12:35AM)
That isn't bullying? Why is it those who use that word are so guilty of it?

So just because 3 of you in the brain trust decide it is ok then it is?

Why is nobody allowed to think for themselves and have different experiences?
How about your step back and say you never thought of that?

How about you tell me exactly what I am wrong about? Over hype or not is an opinion. You can disagree but no right or wrong.

I know personally the people who have lost businesses to the problem so they is not wrong. What exactly am I wrong about?
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Sep 19, 2017 11:47AM)
Http://cornwallalliance.org/2017/09/what-unintended-consequences-accompany-mandatory-evacuations-for-hurricanes/
Message: Posted by: slowkneenuh (Sep 19, 2017 01:40PM)
Now you want to add a touch of anarchy to our disaster preparation. Individuals know more than the collective wisdom of professionals? I guess then we would know who is the most macho family on the block.
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Sep 19, 2017 02:11PM)
All I am saying is that discretion is better. Is it so horrible to ask for that?
Message: Posted by: ed rhodes (Sep 19, 2017 04:16PM)
You sound a little like the mayor in "Jaws."
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Sep 19, 2017 04:34PM)
With the obvious difference of being right. Did you read the link even?
Message: Posted by: landmark (Sep 19, 2017 08:29PM)
So just trying to clarify here, Danny: your position is that evacuations should not be mandatory?
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Sep 19, 2017 08:48PM)
Now we're getting somewhere.

Also the coverage needs to be toned way down.

Also how about some help for those needlessly evacuated just because they want to error on the store of caution?
Message: Posted by: tommy (Sep 19, 2017 09:10PM)
"Earlier on today apparently a woman rang the BBC and said she had heard that there was a hurricane on the way," he says, deadpan and reliable. "Well, if you are watching, don't worry, there isn't."



http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/1565392/Earlier-on-apparently-a-woman-rang-the-BBC.html

As the old gambler said predicting the future is ....... hard!
Message: Posted by: ed rhodes (Sep 19, 2017 09:43PM)
[quote]On Sep 19, 2017, Dannydoyle wrote:
With the obvious difference of being right. Did you read the link even? [/quote]

Yes I did. Can you accept the fact that WHEN the evacuation orders were cut, Irma was projected to hit Miami dead on?

It's not the Weather Service's fault that the hurricane swerved in a way the hurricanes generally don't.

It's not like they SAW it was going to go up the West Coast and said; "Screw it! Let's inconvenience as many people as possible and evacuate the East Coast anyway!"

Are they supposed to wait until the last minute, when it would be too LATE for people to evacuate, before they make up their minds?
Message: Posted by: tommy (Sep 19, 2017 11:41PM)
Was it an Al Gore projection?
Message: Posted by: Dannydoyle (Sep 20, 2017 12:01AM)
[quote]On Sep 19, 2017, ed rhodes wrote:
[quote]On Sep 19, 2017, Dannydoyle wrote:
With the obvious difference of being right. Did you read the link even? [/quote]

Yes I did. Can you accept the fact that WHEN the evacuation orders were cut, Irma was projected to hit Miami dead on?

It's not the Weather Service's fault that the hurricane swerved in a way the hurricanes generally don't.

It's not like they SAW it was going to go up the West Coast and said; "Screw it! Let's inconvenience as many people as possible and evacuate the East Coast anyway!"

Are they supposed to wait until the last minute, when it would be too LATE for people to evacuate, before they make up their minds? [/quote]

So you didn't read the link.