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Rimbaud Loyal user Saint Louis 291 Posts |
The thing is, just like casino games, this show doesn't have any reason to be rigged. Human greed and basic psychology is all they need to keep their million safe. As of yet, no one has won the million (to my knowledge) and it is not very likely anyone will--at least not without being incredibly stupid.
There are, what 28 cases and only one has the million. Yet every single contestant is sure they have the million. Why? They're idiots. That's why. They are 27 times more likely to have a non-million than to have the million. But they believe in "luck" when they should believe in math. This incredibly short-sighted mindset means that they turn down offers they should take. The only, and I mean ONLY, time it would be remotely right to go all the way is if the last two cases contained the $750,000 and the $1,000,000, and even then the offer is going to be in between those two amounts. Mathematically, it is much smarter to take the deal, even then. Professional gamblers know this sort of thing. For example: What most people don't know when they are watching one of those poker tournaments is that when it gets down to the final table, at some point, the pros turn to each other and say "Chop?" and the other pros start nodding their head. They almost always make a deal to divide the final few payouts regardless of who actually wins. Remember, there is no such thing as luck. There is only math. Inexorable, unforgiving, math.
http://www.DanLaddthehypnotist.com
"Saying 'Everyone is special' is just another way of saying 'No one is.'" --Dash from The Incredibles |
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Greg Arce Inner circle 6732 Posts |
Absolutely agree on what Rimbaud said. If you watch the show you'll see so many contestants offered six figure numbers and they'll actually turn it down with the dream that they have the millions. Almost every time they end up walking away with something considerably lower... some times so low that you almost want to cry for them because they turned down what most people would not make in five years of steady employment.
If I were on there and they offered anything in the six figures then I'm running. I would only keep going if I had a lot of very high cases and have removed most or all of the smaller ones... and even then at some point I would know the tide had turned and just take the offer and run. Greed is what makes this world run. Greg
One of my favorite quotes: "A critic is a legless man who teaches running."
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ThomasJ Special user Chicago 999 Posts |
"There are, what 28 cases and only one has the million. Yet every single contestant is sure they have the million. Why? They're idiots. That's why. They are 27 times more likely to have a non-million than to have the million. But they believe in "luck" when they should believe in math."
That is so true. Well said. -T.J. |
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MagicSanta Inner circle Northern Nevada 5841 Posts |
I'd suck on a show like that. They'd offer me a thousand bucks and I'd take it.
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