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AMcD Inner circle stacking for food! 3078 Posts |
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J.CADEAC New user Paris, France 67 Posts |
Very pleasant and interesting to read !
Merci Arnold.
"You must either modify your dreams or magnify your skills".
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JasonEngland V.I.P. Las Vegas, NV 1728 Posts |
Read this about a month ago. The interesting thing about this article to me is that at the end of the day he was still playing a game with a tiny negative expectation and he still won money. Put another way, he was lucky, but had engineered the game to the point where he didn't need as much luck as the next guy.
Jason
Eternal damnation awaits anyone who questions God's unconditional love. --Bill Hicks
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Cagliostro Inner circle 2478 Posts |
I am not entirely sure about this but as I recall, this man is very sharp and knowledgeable about BJ advantage play and structured a proposition bet with the casinos in which he got back a portion of his losses if he lost a certain amount, and then could continue to play.
I think the proposition set-up gave him a positive expectation on the play but don’t have time to check it out. Off the top of my head it seems he negotiated a deal with the joints to reduce the house edge down to 0.25% by changing some of the rules of the game and he got back 20% of his losses when they totaled a certain amount, say $500,000. As I said I am not 100% sure about the details of the proposition set-up. However, there is a reasonable chance that more than luck was involved and he had an edge over the joints. |
Tony45 Veteran user 384 Posts |
A ton of these high players get the kickback, that's fairly common now. But I wouldnt be surprised if he had some sort of edge, you got to figure the guy cant be a total dope to have that kind of money to begin with. On the other hand I have seen some cases...... lol
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JasonEngland V.I.P. Las Vegas, NV 1728 Posts |
Quote:
On 2012-05-08 20:08, Cagliostro wrote: Cag, You may be absolutely right. This is the line that stuck with me when I read that article a few months back: "In a 50-50 game, you’re taking basically the same risk as the house, but if you get lucky and start out winning, you have little incentive to stop." I was under the impression that he negotiated basically a dead-even game and then got off to such a good start that he was bound to come out ahead. That's what I meant by "getting lucky." I should read the article again closer. Jason
Eternal damnation awaits anyone who questions God's unconditional love. --Bill Hicks
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AMcD Inner circle stacking for food! 3078 Posts |
Lucky? Well, he can't be lucky on such a long run. Luck might have helped him a bit, but not for all those hands (and cash) won.
To me, this guy is particularly clever. |
JasonEngland V.I.P. Las Vegas, NV 1728 Posts |
AMcD,
Remember, this guy was betting $100,000 per hand at one point. When you're betting that amount of money, being up $6,000,000 is like a $10 better being up $600.00. Doesn't seem that statistically significant when looked at in that light. I admit, maybe there is more to it than I initially thought, but I'll have to read the article more carefully to be sure. Jason
Eternal damnation awaits anyone who questions God's unconditional love. --Bill Hicks
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tommy Eternal Order Devil's Island 16544 Posts |
I don't need much luck. Just give me 10% more than average please.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.
Tommy |
AMcD Inner circle stacking for food! 3078 Posts |
Good point Jason.
We ought to compute all that to be sure (even if I'm convinced the guy knew perfectly what he was doing), but I'm currently running out of time for such a thing. $100K a hand! Thinking I face sometimes troubles to gas up my car... |
Cagliostro Inner circle 2478 Posts |
All I can say is this, guys. Having been around some really sharp gamblers and advantage players for more years than I care to count (not protection people or demo guys, but the type people most on this board will never meet or know about – the guys who really do this stuff), to play in a number of joints and to repeatedly win like this, everything else aside, I would intuitively say it can’t all be luck. One usually has to have something going beyond luck.
I don’t have time to play with this, but in my opinion, the 20% (or whatever the number was) kickback on losses is a significant aspect of the set-up. I believe that is likely where the edge comes in. Over the years, the joints have given “whales” special deals when it comes to playing and sometimes the whales knew a lot more about the game being played than the casino people, much to the casino operators’ chagrin and detriment. Most casino people are really not all that sharp. Some are, but most are not. Sometimes all you have to do is hit their greed button the right way… |
NFS Regular user 186 Posts |
Don himself admits that although the games were good, they aren't THAT good to have guaranteed such a large return. He acknowledges that a big portion of what transpired was luck. Several casinos in the AC area were competing with each other and offering good rebates for his action. Being the intelligent person that he is, he of course realized this made it a +EV game. Playing 100k a hand and scoring 15 mil. simply means he was up 150 units. Anyone who has played the game will agree that being up or down 150 units is completely within the normal short-term fluctuation of the game. Cagliostro is exactly right - he went on record stating that the reason he played was because of the rebates (making it an +EV game), and he wouldn't have played it if it weren't for the rebates. Specifically, it was a 20% rebate for any losses.
The best part about this is the only reason he stopped playing at the Tropicana was because they ran out of $25k chips. The Borgata and Caesars simply refused to refill the tray.
"A gambler without a system is as a ship without a compass."
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Cagliostro Inner circle 2478 Posts |
Quote:
On 2012-05-09 16:36, NFS wrote: I agree. "Luck" or "abnormal" distribution plays a part on any percentage play over a limited or fixed period of time and the outcome may be more or less than probablilites predict. Fortunately it seems like "luck" favor those with a +EV more often than those without. Of course the smart thing to say was that it was 100% luck. That way the casino operators might try to get their money back. Better to play the "ig" (ignoramus), than to be a half-smart. One can usually make more money that way. |
The Dowser Special user Canada 763 Posts |
Quote:
On 2012-05-09 11:09, Cagliostro wrote: I must confess it... but I am working on that. |
wunceaponatime Loyal user 280 Posts |
Agree with NSF. It's too easy to get impressed with large numbers when the same success with a few hundred would seem less impressive.
David |
Cagliostro Inner circle 2478 Posts |
@ NFS and wunceaponatime.
Mathematically you are both correct in your observation above. However, call me frivolous, shallow and lacking in character but I am much more impressed with large numbers. I would be even more impressed if they were MY large numbers. LOL |
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