Paul,

I'm going to be the ignoramus here, with perhaps naive questions. Shoot me down if wish!

With predictions being made like this, doesn't the accuracy depend a lot on the interpretation of the prediction by the subject? Do you rely somewhat on this?

For example "travel by business" could be that the subject car broke down and had to ride the train to work, or it could mean jetting off half way across the world.

"Fights with family" could mean a slight disagreement with a relative during a debate or a full blown family feud.

"Raises" - most people have a raise every year or two and these are usually at certain times of the year.

The 'hits' are going to be remembered and the 'misses' are going to be forgotten or dismissed when the reader comes to review the reading, with fairly sure fire things you can claim that you might have been a little bit off with the timing.

Also the subject may tend to take part in actions that fulfil the prediction: "making new friends" - If you get a new work colleague you may go out for a drink with them, thus fulfilling the prediction.

Are you fooling yourself here, or merely demonstrating that with applied skill and practice you can give a reading that fits your subject accurately? I assume its the latter.

Regards,

Kris Sheglova

Kris: I think what you said is probably correct and I also beleive what paul says is also correct. I think when you get into readings all these things come into play.

I can't remember where, but a long time ago I read this article or book about people who were highly creative and were responsible for some of the great inventions of our time.

The Article pointed out that the word invent means "to find". This suggests that all inventions of the future already exist just waiting to be found.

A number of the inventors explained that most of the time new discoveries were made by taking old formulas and re-arranging them with others to create something new. However very occasionally no matter how much you re-arranged the old concepts they couldn't get the full picture.

It was in these cases that a completely new piece of information was needed in order to solve the puzzle.

The question was when that actually happened, where did this information come from that hadn't previously existed (or been discovered)?

I can relate to that theory with some of the readings I've done and with creative work I did many years ago as an illustrator.

I really believe by studying all these systems and methods that you can get to a point where your mind can make up the gaps and you do occasoinally tap into some "universal storehouse of information".

I also beleive that the majority of readings are successful due the re-occuring patterns of the human condition. there is so much going on in our lives and an Oracle brings our attention to a part of it. Having said that it is very often the parts that need most attention..

I also believe Oracles can be useful tools for problem solving. The Human mind thinks in patterns. The Randomness of consulting an Oracle can help break those fixed patterns and create new perceptions that could be useful.

For members, such as myself, who are uncomfortable with presentations of "cold-reading" in the traditional sense, I want to suggest a careful reading of "Cold and Nasty," Derren Brown's essay on cold-reading in his book, "Absolute Magic"(pp. 103-111).

Derren has come to reject what he calls "the unpleasantness that is in the very roots of the common variety [cold-reading]," i.e., cold-reading directed at revealing supposed insights about a person's personality, challenges and future. "Absolute Magic," p.104. Derren professes disdain for the "reader-client" model of cold-reading where the mentalist assumes the roles of psychic, counselor, comforter and/or therapist. Id. However, not wanting to forego the "powerful illusion that cold-reading offers" (id.), Derren instead adopts cold-reading techniques to enhance some of his mind-reading effects, particularly demonstrations of apparent telepathy where the crux of the effect is the mentalist's revelation of glimpsed or otherwise stolen bits of information (from billets, peeks, clipboards and other pre-show methods, etc.). Derren demonstrates this application of cold-reading techniques with examples of "reveals" he has given in a routine where he asks the spectator to "secretly" jot down and think about a childhood memory. Id. at p. 107. Having glimpsed, in the four examples given,"Pecan pie at the cottage," "Playing guitar," "when we got Bouncer, our dog," and "going away with my parents," Derren sets out the surprisingly elaborate and effective revelations he managed to construct using deduction, observed response and other cold-reading techniques. See Id. at 107-109.

As Derren puts it, he uses cold-reading techniques for "building up the picture" he paints when revealing a volunteer's thought. Id. at 109. I, and many others, have long used cold-reading techniques in precisely this fashion to enhance the illusion of apparent mind-reading.

So even if you don't care to become a "reader" per se, but do wish to greatly enhance the effectiveness of your mentalism, study, learn and practice cold-reading techniques. And beg, borrow or steal a copy of "Absolute Magic," not only for its intriguing exposition on cold-reading with top drawer examples of the art of revealing information, more importantly, for some of the most valuable and insightful essays ever published on the subject of the performer determining a VISION of what MEANING he wants his magic to have, and then developing that vision and staying true to it with every decision he makes.

ALLTHUMBS
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With predictions being made like this, doesn't the accuracy depend a lot on the interpretation of the prediction by the subject? Do you rely somewhat on this?
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In my opinion the interpretation by the subject is all that matters. If the prediction for them is remembered in such a way that they then see it happen even under the thinnest of circumstance if they think your right then why does the objective reality matter? I know this is dangerous ground to tread on, but who is to say what is or isnt real, none of us have the ability to permenantly pull ourselves out of our preconceptions and view reality objectivly...

In college I learned that if the proffesor wrote the book its as close to the truth as you need. I think the same applies here, if the subject believes you were 100% accurate then who else matters... as long as we remain honest and ethical with our subjects... am I making sense or simply rambeling on? either way I should probably sit down now...

I hope this discussion continues, its incredibly interesting to hear all the views.

IT's all good

I suppose the presentation and the confidence you show has a tremendous amount to do with your success rate. This is why I believe Derren Brown is so convincing. He is able to get his subject to believe what he says. It seems like a decent cold reader with a great presentation could appear to be very accurate. On the other hand, a great cold reader with an unimpressive presentation may not be so successful. Am I on the right track here?

I don't think it's possible to have an unimpressive presentation and be a great cold reader.

- b

You're warm...

What you say could well apply to any performance of mentalism, so in that respect, you are certainly on the right track. Keep in mind, though, that Derren Brown does not do cold-reading of the variety I think you are inquiring about. Take a look at my previous post for an explanation of this.

In the context that Derren (and others with similar approaches) applies cold-reading techniques, i.e., to embellish his revelations of a spectator's thought with details deduced from the two or three words actually written (and secretly glimpsed), there is no script or objective of
"get[ting] the subject to believe what he says." In this context--a demonstration of apparent telepathy--the mentalist is either right or his is not; he either successfully "picks up" the thought and reveals it, or he does not. And the details elaborating the written thought that the mentalist is able to deduce and reveal with cold-reading techniques are either accurate, or they are not. The subject need not "believe" what Derren reveals to be true; the subject KNOWS whether it is true or not. In this context, "belief" is involved insofar as the skillful use of cold-reading techniques enhances the subject's belief that they have witnessed "genuine" mindreading or thought transference rather than mere trickery by which the performer was able to see what the subject had written.

Contrast this application of cold-reading techniques with the traditional model or application of cold-reading techniques, that of a "reader" who apparently discerns details about the subject's past, present and future, offers the subject insights into their personality, challenges and relationships, and offers predictions (and possibly advice or guidance) concerning events to occur and the course of the subject's life. In this context, yes, a primary objective is that the reader "believes" what the reader says.

But you are correct, a "great presentation" coupled with a skillful use of either of these applications of cold-reading is a recipe for success, and an adept presentation can often trump technical skill in the eyes of the audience. As Mr. Brown put it:


Brown, Derren, "Absolute Magic" at p. 54.

This is a true statement. Because the message would be incongruent. In other words ,the words delivered by the poor presenter would not match the tonality of his voice or the his body language. Studies would have us believe that words acount for only 7% of the communication process.

People who tend to be succesful communicators naturaly often demonstrate powerful language patterns whether they are aware of it or not. NLP which was the inspiration of Knepper's work was largely created by studying successful comunicators and working out how they got the results they did.

Most of the people they studied had no idea of how their language affected the processing of others around them. It was just a "talent".

Kris,
In response to your previous question, yes, some of it may be interpreted by the sitter to "fit into a mold" that they design however, for much of these readings, there is a specific time indicated. You might stock some of it up to cooincidence BUT many of these predictions are specific in both action and time. There is a differentiation between long travel/vacation and short trips (in a car an hour away type trip), promotion at work in a specific time frame, death of a relative, announcement of a wedding, etc...these are specific's with specific times.

I am amazed that Millard has not spoken up, nor some of our other readers here. Why are magicians so closed off to the possibility that some of this may actually exist? It is so Randii/J.I. Swiss that it really makes you wonder. There are few professional mentalists and psychic entertainers that do not have stories about things that happeneded that they cannot explain. Call it what you will but somethings that are not explainable are a kewl thing, something to ponder, wonder about and marvel at all at the same time.

Perhaps try sitting back sometime at a magic show and inbstead of trying to figure it out, sit back, enjoy the wonder, enjoy seeing the impossible and don't give a *** about how it's done. Then you might understand why EVERYTHING need not be explained away. Reality is for people who lack imagination!

PSIncerely Yours,
Paul Alberstat

Paul,

Thank you for you opinion. Your views on this are interesting and informative.

I think the reason why the readers here haven't commented is that its getting dangerously close to religious debate. It also leads to the question by the skeptics, well why do we need to resort to trickery to achieve everything else? Is it because we aren't sufficiently developed, or simply because we have limits?

People have their different beliefs. I respect your belief that you believe that some of this reading is real, in the same way that I expect you to respect that my religious beliefs exclude the possibility that it is. Perhaps it is why there is a lack of successful readers, and maybe it is a reason that I will never make a good reader - because without belief from the performer/reader something is taken away from the reading that is essential. Maybe I am wrong. Who really knows?

I think you are bang on in your last statement. Many magicians/performers of magical arts have a problem enjoying a magic show. They go, not to be entertained by their peers, but to analyze the various tricks and effects. I am not guilty of this, I only go to see a show to be entertained, but do sometimes find myself occaisionally analyzing something unintentionally. Being a software developer by trade my mind is trained (nature vs nurture you decide) to break things down and analyze every minute detail. You are quite right it is impossible to enjoy magic without imagination - fortunately I think its not something I'm lacking in, just occaisionally it gets invaded by the other side of my personality!

Respectfully,

Kris Sheglova

As I wrote previously, a serious reader often develops a strong intuitive resource that transcends the "cold reading" methodology and often enables him/her to develop reasonably accurate statements concerning a sitter's present and future prospects.

In addition to being well informed concerning the technical aspects of this craft, I believe a successful reader needs to take that "leap of faith" that is essential to convincing himself as well as his client that the reading process is indeed legitimate and worthwhile.

Just as an effective magician believes the coin he placed in his hand is actually there before it vanishes, the effective reader trusts in the power of his intuition and oracle to convey the requisite information to his client. In the case of the reader, however, the intuitive process is not a matter of acting or pretending -- this is where the leap of faith comes in for the psychic reader and where the "skeptical" debate begins for ye of little faith...

Joe Z.