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CarlD
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Sorry, I can't figure it out. If I have a deck of 78 Tarot Cards, what are the odds of me 'guessing' two card drawn at random by two volunteers? 1 is 78 to 1, but 2? Is it just double?

Thanks!
CarlD
SHoT
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It is 1 to 6006 (which is actually a pretty cool magical number)

For the first choice you have 1 out of 78 and for the second 1 out of 77, just multiply the two.

S%
SHoT
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As an after-thought: you are not 'guessing', as a mentalist you should 'know' ...

Mentalism is an exact science, isn't it? ;-)
Carlos the Great
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Hey shot,

Well, it depends on whether you are demonstrating telepathy, clairvoyance, precognition, and so forth. I know that you are referring to whether you KNOW versus GUESSING, but I think Carl was referring more to what the odds would be if he WAS guessing (i.e., a reference point to show the true impossibility).

Darwin Ortiz gives an example from Strong Magic where he gives a receipt in the form of a torn off piece of card. He talks about the odds of ever tearing an identical piece ("You could sit in a room all day tearing cards and never tear two the same way"). He is not saying that a magician does it, he only says it to stress the impossibility. By saying that a random guess could only work once in 6006 tries, Carl is indirectly saying that it cannot be a guess (wow, is this Wonder Words in action?)

-Carlos
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CarlD
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Hey Shot, thanks for that. And wonderfully stated about my position on this Carlos...Smile Yeah, just using it as a convincer. It's a good sized number too, makes it sound quite impressive.

Thanks:)
Carl
Carlos the Great
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Hey Carl,

Yeah, Shot answered the question perfectly and I am glad I was right about your position on this. Maybe you have already thought of this but what about just lying about the true odds? Saying something like "Odds of getting this right by just guessing are somewhere near 1 in 20,000". I mean, to get caught, one would have to know how many cards you are using, how to determine the odds, and then be able to do the math. And even if you do get caught, you can just stress that you are not a math expert and ask whether 1 in 6006 is impressive enough (by the way, if you add a third card, the odds become 1 in 456,456, that is like 1 in half a million).

While outright lying is something that you have to determine for yourself, remember you are a performer and performers "lie" all the time while they perform. It really depends on your performance style. For me, I don't let the real world constrain the effects I show in my performance so why should I let real world elements like math? But, as I want to stress, that is just me.

-Carlos
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SHoT
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I agree, you can always talk about "many thousand possibilities, to many to count ... and definitely too many to let me just guess your card ..." which sounds really impressive and makes sure the spectators believe that you "know" somehow ...

S%
CarlD
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Yes, I agree with you both. I like the idea of just saying the chances are in the thousands, but I wanted an actual figure just in case I was challenged by someone with greater mental acuity than myself:) 6,006 IS thousands, so I can get away with being vague. I have no problem at all with lying, isn't that what Mentalism is about?:)

CarlD
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