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Masonogy1
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What is the BEST roulette system YOU use to win!? Simple question... CAN YOU ANSWER IT!!!?? Smile
Expertmagician
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You best bet to win routette is to use a Roulette computer...they cost several thousands of dollars and are illegal. But, they do work Smile

So, do not use them in a casino.
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gadfly3d
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There is no Santa Claus either.
Dannydoyle
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Einstein said that being a good Roulette player is like being a good smoker.

There is NO computer tracking system that will be able to counter the simple house advantage of the bets. EVERY bet has a negative expectation. You can NOT beat it.
Danny Doyle
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<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
Vandy Grift
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Quote:
On 2007-09-12 12:57, Dannydoyle wrote:
EVERY bet has a negative expectation. You can NOT beat it.


Yeah but if one color comes up several times in a row, the odds start to go the other way. So, if it comes up red 10 times in a row, the odds are very good that it will be black the next time. That's when you should bet at least half your bankroll.

Also, the odds say that numbers come in threes. So if any one number comes up twice, you should always bet two thirds to half your bankroll that it will come up again the next spin.

"The past don't control you, but the future's like a roulette wheel spinning"- Bob Dylan.
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h2o
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The best roulette system is to go to the Casino and to tell them that you have a winning roulette system. They will offer you the presidential suite and a private table to play....
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Quote:
On 2007-09-12 13:51, Vandy Grift wrote:
Quote:
On 2007-09-12 12:57, Dannydoyle wrote:
EVERY bet has a negative expectation. You can NOT beat it.


Yeah but if one color comes up several times in a row, the odds start to go the other way. So, if it comes up red 10 times in a row, the odds are very good that it will be black the next time. That's when you should bet at least half your bankroll.

Also, the odds say that numbers come in threes. So if any one number comes up twice, you should always bet two thirds to half your bankroll that it will come up again the next spin.

"The past don't control you, but the future's like a roulette wheel spinning"- Bob Dylan.

Hi Vandy, nothing is further from the truth regarding the odds... as danny wrote, 2 negatives don't make a positive... even if the wheel comes up black 25 times, the odds on the next spin hitting black again is just as good as the previous 25 times... Ive met and still meet veteran roulette dealers claiming to be able to hit 9-10 number sections on the wheel consistently... that's also a lie... if you could divide the wheel in 2 sections and hit one half of the wheel consistenly , you can own the casino...
"Everyone is tough till they get punched in the face" Mike Tyson
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LOL! Thanks,I was just kidding.

I never play roulette, but I know about and understand odds. You'd be surprised how many people believe that kind of stuff though. Especially in games like roulette and craps. They think numbers are "due" and all that BS. And I would never really suggest betting half, or two thirds to half, of your bankroll on any single bet. I was just screwing around, sorry for the confusion.
"Get a life dude." -some guy in a magic forum
Blair Morris
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The most effective strategy for roulette is to avoid it like the plague (although you had me reading your post twice before I figured out you were kidding Vandy)

But if you insist on throwing your money on the table, then exploiting a bias in the wheel is one effective way to do so and perhaps get an advantage. It may even be the best way.
The problem is that even with a bias in the wheel you've still got to overcome the 5+% in favor of the house.

Working on behalf of the player is most wheels have some sort of bias because as a mechanical device and regardless of how hard the house tries to minimize it, they pretty much have to have a flaw.
That flaw may or may not be exploitable.

Working on behalf of the house is that even when a wheel has a bias, the physical act of discovering what that bias is and how to exploit it can be complex, time consuming and difficult.

Working on behalf of novice gamblers everywhere are threads like this that basically tell you to never play roulette.
Expertmagician
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Quote:
On 2007-09-12 12:57, Dannydoyle wrote:
Einstein said that being a good Roulette player is like being a good smoker.

There is NO computer tracking system that will be able to counter the simple house advantage of the bets. EVERY bet has a negative expectation. You can NOT beat it.


Danny,

I am sorry...but, I hate to disagree with you.....the system which is being sold works similar to projecting where a missle is going to land. After all a roulette ball must follow the same laws of gravity and physics.

Don't forget, you don't have to predict the exact number. Even if you norrow the number down to 1/2 or 1/3 rd of the wheel you have a VERY large edge. And the system does better than that.

I personally worked on a similar system about 30 years ago with an engineer and computer hardware engineer who I was friends with. When we started to make some headway...the casinos started really cracking down on using electronics in a casino to beat the house....so we scrapped the project.

But, todays electronics are even better.....unfortunately, they are still illegal to use in a casino.

The systems have nothing to do with bias...just physics.

So I guess, being a rocket scientist can pay Smile
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Blair Morris
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Steve Forte states that even though roulette is prone to exploitation by as yet undeveloped electronics, the current crop of Rotronics based computers and all the derivatives of that technology leave a lot to be desired.
A dealer with a fast rotor speed will make you feel that your $20,000.00 Rotronic purchase might have been better spent on a nice dinner and hotel room.

Perhaps most important to this whole discussion is what will happen to you if you get caught wearing a roulette computer in a Vegas casino.
If doing time scares you off roulette computers, you may be better off exploiting wheel bias.
Chances are if you're suspected of exploiting wheel bias you're just going to get 86'd, a better option than roulette computers and the subsequent years you'll spend in the Big House.

Personally, I'd consider counting cards in BlackJack a far better way to make a few bucks than ANYTHING you could get up to at the roulette table short of collusion with a dealer......or you could just get a job.
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Quote:
On 2007-09-12 16:03, Vandy Grift wrote:
LOL! Thanks,I was just kidding.

I never play roulette, but I know about and understand odds. You'd be surprised how many people believe that kind of stuff though. Especially in games like roulette and craps. They think numbers are "due" and all that BS. And I would never really suggest betting half, or two thirds to half, of your bankroll on any single bet. I was just screwing around, sorry for the confusion.


Vandy I KNEW you were kidding but it did make me laugh, and you know how tough that is to do. I wasn't confused buddy. I am home next week by the way.

As for anyone else who cares to disagree, feel free to do so. Facts are facts. Math is math. Take your computer and try, but like I said you have a negative expectation on each bet, you will lose in the long run.

This does not allow for a crooked dealer, past posting or any other sort of cheating. Roulette is simply a losing proposition.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus
<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
JasonEngland
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Danny,

What you are saying is true to a point. Roulette can't be beaten by any manner of juggling the arithmetic of the game. A series of negative-expectation wagers can't be arranged in any manner to come up with a positive expectation. You've got that part correct.

But a roulette computer isn't trying to do that. Allow me an analogy.

The odds of cutting to an ace from a legitimately shuffled, normal deck are 12:1 against. (There are 4 cards that win for me and 48 that lose. That reduces to 12:1 against.) You could offer me 10:1 odds on cutting an ace and make an nice little sum over time.

But if you spread the deck face up and let me look at the deck for just an instant before turning it back face down, I would have a much greater chance of hitting an ace. Say I estimate that an ace is 20 cards down, and that my visual estimation is accurate to within 1 or 2 cards each time. Let's also assume that I can accurately cut within 1 or 2 cards each time. Now I'm going to cut to an ace probably every 2 or 3 tries, and you'd be foolish to offer 10:1 odds now. I'd murder you.

We've taken a game with zero information and turned it into a game with LOTS of information. And if I can act on that information I might be able to beat the game.

A roulette computer works in a similar manner. Although the following is a gross oversimplification, it is conceptually accurate.

By measuring the rotor speed in one direction, and the direction of the ball in another direction, and by making use of an estimate of the drop-off point for the ball, a calculation can be made that will predict the theoretical spot where the ball will make contact. (The algorithms take into account the decay in rotor speed, and you constantly update the computer with the decay in ball speed. When the computer has enough info to make a calculation it spits out its result.)

We now have a theoretical impact point. We know from past modeling of this particular roulette wheel what type of "bounce" it has. Sure, you sometimes get a ball that bounces all over the place and travels quite a distance. But sometimes that same ball falls directly into a pocket and sticks there. A wheel that does this often is called a "dead drop" wheel. So, after modeling a wheel you can determine what type of average bounce you can expect and then you develop a range of numbers to bet on either side of your theoretical impact point.

If you have a wheel with an average bounce of 4-5 numbers in either direction, you can rest assured that most of the time, your ball will land withing a range of 10 - 11 numbers, centered on your theoretical target. IF you can bet these before the dealer calls no more bets then you can make money over time. Additionally, the algorithms are updated as you play (by continuing to input data even after the ball has fallen) to "educate" the program while the play is in progress. (You may find your "bounce pattern" has decreased or increased since this afternoon due to some change in conditions).

Many systems like this have been developed, but perhaps the first was conceived by Ed Thorp, the father of modern blackjack card counting. Thorp of course is a professional mathematician who understands full well the impossibility of beating the game with pure mathematics. But Thorp (and others since him) have had varying degrees of success beating the game with physics. The systems seems to work okay in the lab and in the practice sessions, but often in the literature you read of them having only marginal success in the real world.

But the point is, we're not talking about an impossible thing here (like beating the game by juggling your wagers in some "special" way). We're talking about physics that are very well understood, algorithms specifically designed for the problems, and some very, very intelligent people trying to tackle this. Thorp claimed an enormous edge of around 40% in practice sessions, but could never get the electronics to work in a casino properly (remember, this was the '60s when he was trying).

In short, it isn't a pipedream. Extremely difficult to get to work well perhaps, but certainly within the bounds of possibility on some level.

Jason
Eternal damnation awaits anyone who questions God's unconditional love. --Bill Hicks
tommy
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I have give up talking to Roulette players, they are like drug addicts or nuts or something.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
JasonEngland
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Quote:
On 2007-09-13 01:28, Dannydoyle wrote: Roulette is simply a losing proposition.


Danny,

Again, although you're correct for 99.99% of all roulette players, in the interest of 100% accurate information, you should familiarize yourself with the ideas/concepts behind visual prediction. There is a reasonable amount of evidence that given the proper circumstances (which include but are not limited to a consistent drop-off point and a slow rotor speed), it is possible to visually predict a segment of the wheel that the ball will drop into.

Once that is done, all of the other things regarding bounce, the "stickiness" of the pocket, etc. from my post on computer play becomes important. The difference is that visual prediction is completely legal. Yes, we're talking about rare conditions and only a handful of people that have the skill and patience to do this, but it remains a viable option for an extremely dedicated person.

There have been complete books written on the subject and some pretty reliable accounts of decent scores attributed to the methods.

Jason
Eternal damnation awaits anyone who questions God's unconditional love. --Bill Hicks
Expertmagician
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JasonEngland,

Great analogy and explanation !

I originally was inspired to beat roulette shortly after I got out of college...it was my 2nd extracurricular activity after I developed my card counting system in the late 1970s. (Since then some other people published similar multi-level counts ... Guess I should have published mine first Smile Oh well, But, I still have my 30 year old computer runs in the attic to prove my independent research Smile

Ed Thorp inspired the development of my own card counting system (thanks to the college computers Smile )

Then I read a series of articles in Gambling Times about how to beat roulette and I decided to make a practical machine/computer to implement the theory with 2 friends who were VERY knowledgeable about circuit design, etc.

I handled the mathematical aspects since I am a computer guy Smile

Again, not only are electronics illegal...but, the casino can protect themselves very easily if they suspect exploitation of the theories. But, I suspect that you will be arrested first Smile

Stick to card counting....as long as you use your brain, casinos can't arrest you. But, they can make you uncomfortable. Side note: You can't get the same edge in card counting that you used to have in the 1970s - 1980s.....so, I don't go out of my way any more.....only team play may get some sort of an edge today.

PS: Jason, I'll be back in Vegas in Feb. and in June 2008. Hopefully, we can hook up again. Feel free to PM me.
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tommy
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If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
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I've been using a system for about 15 years.

Basically, the method employs the visual prediction idea that Jason mentioned above. One simply observes a roulette table for a brief amount of time to gather some data, then you step up to the table and play. This happens within a reasonably few minutes time. And this does not use a Martingale-like system, or an even-odds bet progression system (those who know roulette systems will know what I'm talking about). The bets are on the numbers straight up. That's 35-1, which is one of the best payoffs of any table game in the casino.

About the only other thing that I can say is this: Roulette is the only game whose outcome is determined by human interaction. A dealer throws the ball (much like a pitcher in baseball) and it lands on a number. In baseball, if you study pitchers, you can predict how fast they will throw the balls and where. In roulette, you can do the same. Not with every dealer, of course. But enough to find predictable and beatable tables. This is the basis for the method that I've been using for more than a decade. It doesn't rely on biased wheels, but biased dealers, most of whom have no knowledge that they have a bias! Now, there are a few methods on the market which use this idea, but none that do it as easily as the one I use. As I said before, it takes just a few minutes of table observation. The others take an almost unmanageable amount of time to do it or the bet structure is such that it will take quite a while to turn a profit. This is the key to any successful gambling method, of course.

Unfortunately, I can't say much more specifically about it without revealing the specific method (although I think I've said WAY too much) and it is a marketed system. (Again, I don't sell it!) But I will add that it's easy to learn and easy to play (well, I found it very easy to learn and play). And it's guaranteed, which is one of the reasons I initially paid for it. I was actually able to speak to (and wound up befriending) the person who does sell it and co-created it.

As I said, though I use it and recommend it. I don't sell this method (though I wish I did!), but I don't mind pointing out some of the features and/or referring interested individuals to the source. I could care less whether you contact me out of serious curiosity or doubt what I say. I just wanted to point out that there is a method of play which wins at roulette (and it will work at both single-zero and double-zero wheels) and to mention the features of it that I am able to. I'm certainly recommending and enthusiastically reviewing the one that I've been using for quite awhile.

-- Jheff
Marketplace of the Mind THE LAZY MENTALIST'S CARD TRICK is now available!!
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I was told I could stay and watch but not bet after 6 of the 37:1 payoffs in a row. Pure luck,and no system whatsoever, but they won't say a word when you lose 6 times in a row either because your expected to lose every time not win everytime. I would not recommend the game to anyone. It has no entertainment value, unless played with a Roll-Luck wheel or a saw blade wheel and you won't find those in a casino.
...think not that all wisdom is in your school. You may have studied other paths,but, it is important to remember that no matter who you are or where you come from, there is always more to learn.
tommy
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If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
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