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tommy
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I don’t think you get any advantage getting the right half right 51% of the time do you?

There are 38 numbers and if you back half of them it costs $19 at $1 each and your return is $36 at 35 to 1 a profit of $17 a win.

After 100 spins you have won 51 x $17 = $867 and lost 49 x $19 = $931

A loss of $64.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
silverking
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With every post on computers and prediction, Past Posting is looking better all the time Smile

Of course the poker room is looking the best of all, but somebody has to re-fill the 'annual crop of suckers' barrel and it may as well be roulette players.
KingStardog
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Quote:
On 2007-09-27 00:38, tommy wrote:
I don’t think you get any advantage getting the right half right 51% of the time do you?

There are 38 numbers and if you back half of them it costs $19 at $1 each and your return is $36 at 35 to 1 a profit of $17 a win.

After 100 spins you have won 51 x $17 = $867 and lost 49 x $19 = $931

A loss of $64.


Once again Tommy has the straight dope. The cheat is the house in giving a lousy layout and payout. Roulette is a Grind Game designed by the French to emulate early carnival games of the time which were played off of wheel of fortune type wheels mounted at a 45 degree angle with upright pins around the entire edge, and used a raquet ball sized wooden ball that fell to the bottom resting between two pins to show the prize. I believe this type of wheel was used in france and germany at the time roulette was birthed. Both types of games migrated to the US around the end of the civil war.

The only roulette 'systems' beside the very early electronics and button counters that have any collectible value at all are hardbound copies of "Scientific Betting" and "How to win at Roulette". Both need to be crisp and clean, and in near perfect condition with only minor corner bumps and no dog ears/writing. They still only value at around $25-$35 in mint new condition.

Then the other facts are its the most expensive table game to field, and if folks started beating it, they would replace them with PI GOW or some other less risky item.
...think not that all wisdom is in your school. You may have studied other paths,but, it is important to remember that no matter who you are or where you come from, there is always more to learn.
silverking
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KingStardog, your knowledge of early gaming (and gaming/hustles in general) is most impressive.

I enjoy reading your posts.
KingStardog
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It would be really nice to be able to post small pictures here.

Its hard for me to put words to ideas without sounding very abrasive or hostile which is in no way my intention. After all these years I still have poor internet skills? yep.

Used to have a lot more text, and pics but generaly those have gone to new collectors or other dealers along the way.
...think not that all wisdom is in your school. You may have studied other paths,but, it is important to remember that no matter who you are or where you come from, there is always more to learn.
Vandy Grift
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You can post pics here. I can't remember how, but I have posted a few. If you email me a pic you want to post, I can try to figure it out and let you know how it's done.
"Get a life dude." -some guy in a magic forum
KingStardog
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Quote:
On 2007-09-27 11:42, Vandy Grift wrote:
You can post pics here. I can't remember how, but I have posted a few. If you email me a pic you want to post, I can try to figure it out and let you know how it's done.


Cool, I usually find and link, because I know it will stick here. That other place allows it and that's nice.

Speaking of crooked roulette, I have that one Evans pocket crooked roulette wheel available still and its twice as good as the one from the radner collection, with no added paint, just the way they came.
...think not that all wisdom is in your school. You may have studied other paths,but, it is important to remember that no matter who you are or where you come from, there is always more to learn.
Vandy Grift
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Is that the little 3-1/2" alum number? The one that can "pay the rent" behind a live bar?
"Get a life dude." -some guy in a magic forum
Dannydoyle
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Quote:
On 2007-09-26 23:33, SwampDonkey wrote:
After reading this entire thread I realized all of this could have been avoided if Danny did not say the following:

Quote:
On 2007-09-12 12:57, Dannydoyle wrote:

There is NO computer tracking system that will be able to counter the simple house advantage of the bets. EVERY bet has a negative expectation. You can NOT beat it.



The above statement is inaccurate and Jason simply pointed that out (In detail).

SD


Inaccurate? Well if .001% is considered inaccurate then yep it is horridly so.

Actually if I had posted the clarification with barring cheating then yes the whole thing can be avoided.

I did not allow for past posting, which is the BEST way to win at the game.

I will say for completness sake one more thing. I hope Jason agrees with this, I actually believe he will.

In general, it is a great game to past post. Easier in many ways than Blackjack for one reason. To get 36 chips you need to make 1 move. In Blackjack it requires you to make far more moves to realise the same amount of return. If I was going to risk the time of getting caught, I would choose roulette to cheat.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus
<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
KingStardog
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Quote:
On 2007-09-27 12:09, Vandy Grift wrote:
Is that the little 3-1/2" alum number? The one that can "pay the rent" behind a live bar?


I didn't measure but it doesn't fit in a pocket very well. May be a big coat pocket if you had to run or something.

The gaff runs high or low numbers on an 18 number wheel with no 0 or 00. It essentialy allows you to take half the board gaurenteed, or when needed increase the chances of a win by half.

Yes, you could, pay the rent due to the very strong gaff. I have a tin horse race set sort of like it, but the tin one uses two mags of increasing sizes to slow and stop the spinner, on the winning horse. It is an english game with english horses names.
...think not that all wisdom is in your school. You may have studied other paths,but, it is important to remember that no matter who you are or where you come from, there is always more to learn.
tommy
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For them who are interested in Laurance Scott’s work as mentioned by Steve Forte an up dated version is here at a price:

http://www.advantageplayer.com/roulette/......ion.html

I believe in testing things to see if they work. Theoretical possibilities are not worth a cent if you can’t apply them no matter how true in theory they are.
The problem is it costs time and money to put these things to the test. The bottom line is it is a gamble. I have to say I am a little tempted to test it to see if it can be applied although I am very sceptical and wonder why Steve has not used it to make legal millions.
If I bought the Scott thing I would test it without betting over 10,000 spins to see if it worked.



The guy at wizard of odds sums up Roulette systems etc nicely and I agree with what he says.

http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/bettingsystems.html

The only thing with some relevance to the thing that Scott is talking about I see there is:

Question: “While Roulette clearly cannot be beaten by chance, I have heard that it can be beaten by physics 2 ways (in theory). Way one: a high tech device, which measures the velocity of the ball against the velocity of the wheel and predicts the outcome sector of the wheel with like a 40% accuracy. Way two: Wheel bias. Obviously a wheel would have to have a bias of at least 5.26% to get the player to an even keel. The question is, how many spins would you say, wizard does it take to determine wheel bias, if there is any? - JF from Providence, USA”

Asnswer: “Any device to measure ball and wheel velocity would not be very welcome around a roulette table. However some people claim to be able to judge in their head roughly where the ball will land, with enough accuracy to overcome the house edge. I have yet to be convinced that anybody is winning long term with this method. Roulette wheels today are very high quality and the bias should be negligible. I’m even more skeptical anyone is winning tracking wheel bias. Some casinos track all the numbers to check for bias themselves.”
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
Dannydoyle
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Tommy the statement about theoretical possibilities not being worth a cent unless you can apply them is dead on accurate.

We have LOTS of theories. Even the idea of covering the minute percentage "in the interest of being 100% accurate" and so forth. This place is littered with theories and little practice if you ask me.

Your last post is pretty much been my point from the start, which Jason had a problem with, and SwampDonkey seemed to think I was inaccurate. Guess I am not the only one.

Oh and by the way Marok, I am not even going to raise your statement to the level of a serious arguement by countering it. Use your system have fun LOL.

Sorry guys but math is math. "Think outside the box" all you want, try to be "100% accurate" and not make blanket statements. Einstein was still right. Has NOT been proven wrong as of yet.

As long as we are using odds as they are beating the game....... well you decide.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus
<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
tommy
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Maybe you have more of a chance if two people work it together: One guesses the Ball speed and the other the Wheel speed.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
KingStardog
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This must be the third of these long roulette threads. It kind of separates the dozen or so that know the drill, from the rest.

A simple test if you will. Nice work.

To be completely honest and with way too much exposure to these sorts of things, I know of no system or way to beat the wheel, or I would have beaten it by now. And then taken the secret to the grave.

You can buy the Chinese wheel gaff set for close to 10 grand and pay off the dealer, or sub a gaffed table for a good one, and ship it from the manufacturer, or get overpaid which is found when the next cash count is in, and that is about it. The little $500 set with the remote and brake arm that drops down does not work right and will tend to break in a day or two.

There you have it. If I opened a casino, even though they are so d*** expensive I would get two wheels and tables one a light burl maple and the other a black walnut in case anyone decided one color was better than the other.Just because they GTFM.
...think not that all wisdom is in your school. You may have studied other paths,but, it is important to remember that no matter who you are or where you come from, there is always more to learn.
tommy
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See Hoffmans Later Magic, how to make your wand go bang. Sprinkle some that in some of the slots. Smile
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
silverking
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Quote:
Just because they GTFM.

......and the HOUSE says "AMEN!........free room and board to anybody with a roulette system that works.....only those with systems that work though...line starts by the door over there........Martingale you say sir?....can we get you any show tickets or fly the rest of your family in to spend a week with us here in Vegas, all on the house of course?"
Dannydoyle
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I know a casino host who will send a limo and private jet for anyone with enough money they are willing to guarantee risking on a roulette system.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus
<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
tommy
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Anyone with enough money would only have more than enough if they won, and not enough if they lost.

I once said to a conman from a poor African village, who was in a cell with me in England, "When you got to £6Million why didn't you stop and go back to Africa and live like a king?" He said. "King! I don't want a kingdon! I want an EMPIRE!" and he wasn't joking neither.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
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Quote:

Oh and by the way Marok, I am not even going to raise your statement to the level of a serious arguement by countering it. Use your system have fun LOL.



Please, oh great mind, tell me what was not serious about my statement. I thought that it was completely serious.

I know that you do not actually have any math knowledge beyond some high school algebra, if that, and so that you can't make a serious argument, and all you can do is say things like "math is math", "you can't beat math" and similar meaningless statements. But that's ok, nothing wrong with that, this is the magic Café, not the math Café. What you shouldn't do though is make all this references to math, when it's clear that you actually don't know any, and then when someone who knows some points things out to you, you ridicule them. It's better to just try and learn something.

Looking back at your posts in this thread, your strategy is to make a statement, and then if someone says something you don't agree with, you try to insult them. Meanwhile you don't provide any facts to support your statements. For example, you haven't said anything about why is it so impossible to use visual prediction.

This whole long thread could be avoided, if you are just able to admit to not knowing everything. Instead of admitting to that, what you do is try to insult the person who says something you didn't know, and that just makes you look ridiculous.
KingStardog
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Ok some of our denser folk need a little edumacations.Math may be math, but all of the roulette wheels around the globe have been spinning for over a century now. Lets take a close look at the take from a spin or two without any split bets just single numbers and say four players on a low table and no red black bets.

Spin1
P1-1 on #20 and 4 on #23
P2-1 on #10 and 2 on #16
P3-10 on#3
P4- 5 on #5 and 1 on #15 and 4 on #12

Weeel-#21
Take- 28

Spin 2
P1-12 on #16 and 2 on #28
P2-1 on #10 and 2 on #16
P3-10 on#4 and 8 on #00
P4- 1 on #5 and 6 on #15

Weeel-#6
Take-42


Spin 3
P1-1 on #14 and 5 on #28
P2-1 on #10 and 10 on #19
P3-15 on#9 and 8 on #0
P4- 5 on #22 and 5 on #17

Weeel-#14 pay 35
Take-50&gt;&gt;&gt;15 after pays


Three average spins take on a pay of 42+28+15= 85 lets say some fool drops a couple notes in addition to the four. 285.

They GTFM day in and day out.

We have a lot of people failing this simple little test.
...think not that all wisdom is in your school. You may have studied other paths,but, it is important to remember that no matter who you are or where you come from, there is always more to learn.
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