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KingStardog
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Everyone is forgetting the layout was designed to keep the chips spread and not pay those split and quad bets. Add to that 36 numbers plus 0 and 00 and a pay of what 31for1? Man that's bad....

Saw blade pay is even 36for1 on a 00.

Vandys right casino roulette is a stupid game.Smile
...think not that all wisdom is in your school. You may have studied other paths,but, it is important to remember that no matter who you are or where you come from, there is always more to learn.
KingStardog
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I suppose there is some folks that never figured out 'to' and 'for'

'To' is a legit term. It means your winnings is in addition to the bet.

'For' means you are giving away each bet in order to play.

We always play 'for' games when folks drag the stuff out and things are warm. The man with the equipment always gets paid for the use.
...think not that all wisdom is in your school. You may have studied other paths,but, it is important to remember that no matter who you are or where you come from, there is always more to learn.
Vandy Grift
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When and where did they use those saw tooth wheels King?
"Get a life dude." -some guy in a magic forum
tommy
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http://www.roulettecomputers.com/

I watched the video that is all and know that a crew definitely used something similar in London to win a few million.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
JasonEngland
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Danny,

I believe you'll notice that I've made it perfectly clear that I was discussing playing the game under less-than-common circumstances (read: biased wheels) the entire time.

You've fought me on this for 3 pages of the thread.

Today I post a quote by SF (that says exactly what I've been saying), and within hours you're admitting (by agreeing with Vandy) that a biased wheel can be beaten without a computer.

Interesting.

I remember a Danny that used to post things like, "There is NO computer tracking system that will be able to counter the simple house advantage of the bets."

He quickly changed that stance to: "It can not be beaten short of a computer." (Emphasis mine.)

For those of you not paying close attention, that's essentially a 180-degree reversal. First it couldn't be done, now he concedes it can be done.

A bit later Danny writes: "...barring cheating it is not possible to beat the game" and "...if you don't cheat, you can't as it is now beat roulette."

He now writes that he basically agrees with Vandy, who stated (as have I), that a biased wheel CAN be beaten.

Again, a complete reversal.

Where did we end up? Right back where *I* started.

Roulette can't be beaten by manipulating your bets via common arithmetic systems like the Martingale, the Grand Martingale, the D'Alembert, Oscar's Grind, or any of a million pyramid or cancellation schemes.

(Danny got this part right.)

What Danny got wrong is that by attacking the game with physics instead of pure mathematics the game can be beaten. A computer certainly helps, but as he points out, using one is almost always illegal. I say almost because situations like this crop up from time to time:

http://www.thegoodgamblingguide.co.uk/ne......uter.htm

For those of you good with dates, that happened LAST YEAR. Not 30 years ago. Although I've not seen a follow-up report, it appears playing with a hidden computer wasn't considered cheating at the time the play went down.

Finally, visual prediction appears to be a viable, if rarely mastered technique that can show an edge under the proper circumstances. Although Lawrence Scott claims the technique works on wheels without a bias, I strongly suspect he's wrong. But, biased wheels do crop up from time to time, and there do exist windows of opportunity for players to have a short-term edge.

Jason
Eternal damnation awaits anyone who questions God's unconditional love. --Bill Hicks
Vandy Grift
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Just for the record, I didn't read the Danny/Jason posts closely enough to know if Jason was at one time arguing that a fair wheel could be beaten. I assumed he was based on the back and forth, but it didn't really matter to me, I have no dog in this fight.

Biased wheels certainly do come up. I know that people have taken great advantage of biased wheels. The casinos know it too. And they learn from it. That's why they maintain the wheels, move wheelheads around on the floor and even ship them to different properties. But yeah, if a guy is Johnny on the Spot and sees something, he might take a bite out of a casino. I have to base the original question about systems on the premise that we are talking about a fair wheel, without any electronic aides.
"Get a life dude." -some guy in a magic forum
KingStardog
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Quote:
On 2007-09-26 17:26, Vandy Grift wrote:
When and where did they use those saw tooth wheels King?


The first ones showed up as he indicated in Texas in the 1920s and they played back rooms through about 48-50 after the war. Folks that still have good ones I'm sure use them even now. The roluck like the ine in the pic seem to be player preferred. I think the design and look of that model vs just roulette make a player feel like they have half a chance. At least till the first time they see it spun stop on a number and pop out and go down a few numbers. On a saw blade as it drops it bangs around back and forth about 6-10 times like a pinball machine and the ball develops a unique english from those hits so it can either bouce a couple forward or back just depends.

And depends are what most folks need the first time they play on a wheel like that.


So we heard about so or so different angles to cheat the wheel so far and I'm getting bored with the whole thing.

Chew on this for a while and see if you can wrap your head around it:

From our past 10 years of psychoenergetic science
research, the items relevant to this lecture are the following:

1. Most importantly, we have discovered that there are two
unique levels of physical reality, not just the electric atom/molecule level
that we see around us and that our traditional instruments can detect and
measure. This new level is comprised of magnetic substance, which functions
in the physical vacuum, and is malleable to human intentions. These two
uniquely different kinds of substance seem to interpenetrate each other but,
under normal conditions, do not interact with each other. We label this the
uncoupled state. In this state, the magnetic, vacuum level substance is
invisible to us and to our traditional measuring instruments.
Via the use of a special, intention-host device (see
below) to "condition" the experimental space, these two kinds of substance
can be caused to interact. We label this interactive state the coupled state
of physical reality. In this coupled state, our traditional measurements can
partially detect this vacuum level of physical reality. In equation form,
for the coupled state, a property measurement whose total magnitude is QM is
expressed as

QM(t) = Qe + ?eff(t)Qm.

Here, t is time, Qe is the value from the electric atom/molecule
level of physical reality, Qm is the value from the magnetic, vacuum level
of physical reality and ?eff is the coupling coefficient (0= ?eff =1) due to
the intention-host device that conditions the space. Thus, QM can be greater
than, equal to or less than Qe depending upon both the magnitude and sign of
?eff.

2. We have discovered a process for imprinting a specific
intention into a simple electronic device host. We do this from a deep
meditative state utilizing the attributes of our minds and emotions to
program the electronic circuitry. Turning such a device on in a specific
space (a) lifts the electromagnetic symmetry state of the space to a
significantly higher level so that coupling occurs between the two unique
kinds of substance and (2) tunes that space to produce a particular property
measurement change in the above equation.
...think not that all wisdom is in your school. You may have studied other paths,but, it is important to remember that no matter who you are or where you come from, there is always more to learn.
JasonEngland
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Vandy,

I don't believe a non-biased wheel could be beaten without electronic assistance, though Lawrence Scott claims they can be.

IF they can be, the edge is probably fleeting and could be countered by the casino by altering any element of the game, even unknowingly. (Higher rotor speed, a ball with different bounce characteristics, waving off bets earlier, etc.)

Jason
Eternal damnation awaits anyone who questions God's unconditional love. --Bill Hicks
Vandy Grift
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King, that's heavy.

Jason, I agree 100 percent and I think Danny would too. Not sure where you guys got your signals crossed and I'm not about to go back and try to find out. I definately believe we are all in agreement with your last statement.
"Get a life dude." -some guy in a magic forum
KingStardog
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It seems a modern day hustler needs to have a handle on quantum mechanics at the negative nanometer node.

What happened to the days of check cop and skinners cream? sheesh.
...think not that all wisdom is in your school. You may have studied other paths,but, it is important to remember that no matter who you are or where you come from, there is always more to learn.
Vandy Grift
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Quote:
On 2007-09-26 18:04, KingStardog wrote:
What happened to the days of check cop and skinners cream? sheesh.


Check cop brings us back to Einsteins theory.
"Get a life dude." -some guy in a magic forum
Dannydoyle
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Quote:
On 2007-09-12 12:57, Dannydoyle wrote:
Einstein said that being a good Roulette player is like being a good smoker.

There is NO computer tracking system that will be able to counter the simple house advantage of the bets. EVERY bet has a negative expectation. You can NOT beat it.


I guess that every bet has a negative expectation was confusing for our local expert. I did leave out short of cheating and computers and fantasty land ideas I admit and that was a shortfall on my part.

A biased wheel, can happen although the money that must be invested to find a wheel of this nature as opposed to a short term fluxuation in chance, is questionable.

Like I said Jason and I stand by it. You can NOT beat a negative expectation on every bet. To this I must add barring things such as cheating. Even the "biased wheel" is a tough sell, though possible and not technically cheating. I don't know but I don't think there is a criminal offence with exploiting dealer weakness or biased equipment. IF you had nothing to do with either. I am again not sure.

The problem came in when the implication from another (Expertmagician I believe) that if you "think outside the box" mathmatically it will help. Or Jason saying that Thorpe was thought of as wrong for years. This "implies" that you think it can be exploited through simple systems.

The original question is about a "Roulette SYSTEM" is it not?

Then we get Jason who tries to cover the .001% of what can happen in fantasy land.

To clarify further my original statement the computer "tracking" system I refered to and was not clear (my bad) was simple tracking of which numbers show up and how often. An unbiased wheel has no memory and each trial is an indepent trial and the odds are the same on EVERY SPIN. Again perhaps my fault for not being clear.

I have changed NO position, except to clarify for obviously some of us play roulette in fantasy land.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus
<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
KingStardog
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You guys know I'm just yanking your chain right?

I know years the suppliers used to take the wheels in for a fee and check them for warping,clean and remove wax and grease buildup, do a spin balance test for a fee, then crate and ship them back, certified to the owner at least.The tool steel spindles and seats are very hard and seldom if ever wear out, but little nicks and gouges in the wood can throw a good one off.

As with all the systems/toys/gadgets/electronics the real money is in selling them to wishful thinkers. By the time they become collectible and guys like me get them, the resale margin is not so good, and you would do better trading with other collectors and dealers.
...think not that all wisdom is in your school. You may have studied other paths,but, it is important to remember that no matter who you are or where you come from, there is always more to learn.
tommy
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See the odds table here:

http://www.gambling-systems.com/roulette/


The true odds according to that are 20 to 18 that is 10 to 9. Or in bookmakers % 52.63% to 47.37% On Even money shots in a double Zero game

Which must mean, in the USA one does not get half your back if it goes Zero when betting on even money shots as you would in Europe who only have one Zero.

If that is so, then why would there be any pros trying to beat it the USA. Perhaps they cant afford the airfare to Europe.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
JasonEngland
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Quote:
I guess that every bet has a negative expectation was confusing for our local expert.


No, it wasn't confusing. But it was incomplete. It's based on the idea that roulette spins are all completely random. And they are, if you're a math teacher coming up with word problems for a chapter on probability. In the real world there are infrequent (read: very rare) exceptions to these "rules" that I think should be mentioned for completeness sake.

Quote:
A biased wheel, can happen although the money that must be invested to find a wheel of this nature as opposed to a short term fluxuation in chance, is questionable.


I don't disagree with this. I certainly wouldn't scour the world for one. But if you're already playing roulette for fun (like millions of people do), why not keep your eyes open?

Quote:
You can NOT beat a negative expectation on every bet. To this I must add barring things such as cheating. Even the "biased wheel" is a tough sell, though possible and not technically cheating.


This sounds familiar. (Italics in quote is mine.)

Quote:
The problem came in when the implication from another (Expertmagician I believe) that if you "think outside the box" mathmatically it will help. Or Jason saying that Thorpe was thought of as wrong for years. This "implies" that you think it can be exploited through simple systems.


Setting aside for a moment the differences between implying something and inferring something, I tried in EVERY SINGLE post I made to be crystal clear that I didn't disagree with you about the impossibility of beating the game with arithmetical "bet juggling". It can't be done. If you missed that, or inferred something that wasn't there, that's on you.

Quote:
The original question is about a "Roulette SYSTEM" is it not?


This is the part where you're going to tell me that if the guy had asked about a good "system" for beating blackjack you wouldn't have mentioned shuffle-tracking or card counting? Because they aren't "systems" in the same sense that the term is usually used to describe the "bet juggling" that roulette and craps players have relied on for years. Yes, he asked about a system. And if he'd been refering to the sort of common double-up, pyramid, cancellation, or similar system I'd have said nothing. You seemed willing to bet the farm that's what he meant. I'm simply open to the possibility that he could have meant ANY method of beating the game. I don't presume to know what he meant. You did.

Quote:
Then we get Jason who tries to cover the .001% of what can happen in fantasy land.


I'm sorry, I didn't realize the goal here was to give the stock answer that anyone can look up in a Stats 101 textbook. I thought that a more complete answer exploring (and evaluating) several options might have been appreciated. Sorry for the confusion.

Quote:
To clarify further my original statement the computer "tracking" system I refered to and was not clear (my bad) was simple tracking of which numbers show up and how often. An unbiased wheel has no memory and each trial is an indepent trial and the odds are the same on EVERY SPIN. Again perhaps my fault for not being clear.


I agree with this. Especially the part about you not being clear.

Quote:
I have changed NO position, except to clarify for obviously some of us play roulette in fantasy land.


Really? You want to put it to a vote and see which one of us has remained consistent in the eyes of the readers and which one of us has been back-peddling and stumbling all over himself for the past few pages? I'm game.

I never once claimed to be able to locate a biased wheel, identify one, or accurately exploit one if I did find one. I simply stated that it is theoretically possible. You were the one that was living in the fantasy world of thinking that the mathematical model of roulette is always a perfect description of real-world events and possibilities.

Jason
Eternal damnation awaits anyone who questions God's unconditional love. --Bill Hicks
tommy
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If the true odds are 20 to 18 that is 10 to 9. Or in bookmakers % 52.63% 47.37% to 52.63%
On Even money shots in a double Zero game then that: $100 Blain let it ride five timer bet would see a return of $4186.59 Total

I think the bet would go:.

$211.11

$445.67

$940.36

$1984.16

$4186.59 Total

Note he was paid in total only $3200 = 31 to 1 but if he had been paid at true odds it is about 41 to 1


That is what I mean by how the edge accumulates against you in accumulative betting.
Basically the casino would rob you of a grand with that bet. It might be about 5% in the casino’s favour but how it works is the killer. I think in that accumulative bet it is about an 8% edge. I forgot how we work it out. It tells you here but I need a coffee. http://mathforum.org/library/drmath/view/56665.html

In any event: The nature of the game is beautiful as people win they bet more and so do the looses. The edge is like a money monster that never stops eating money. These millions of roulette players are the nuts that just keep feeding it.

However given a similar circumstance a similar result will occur. Nothing wrong with applying maths to that simple concept to gauge circumstance in any form of gambling. Phill Bull did it and won millions and card counting and these computer devices and so on are based on that concept.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
Expertmagician
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You have to give this guy an eMail address...but, take a look at his video...you may find it interesting.

I have no association with him ... as a matter of fact, I don't even like Roulette, I'll stick to Blackjack, etc. Smile

http://www.genuinewinner.com/

The only reason I was intrigued was that I worked on a similar system with an engineer friend of mine about 15-20 years ago (I did the computer logic and he did the computer circuit design)....this looks more sophisticated than what I was working on, but, the same principal.

I stopped development because electronics were declared illegal in casinos.
Long Island,

New York
tommy
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I know a guy who beats Roulette. He smashes windows runs in and breaks open Roulette machines and any other machine. He is also a junkie and apparently it’s the latest craze with his firm.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
SwampDonkey
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After reading this entire thread I realized all of this could have been avoided if Danny did not say the following:

Quote:
On 2007-09-12 12:57, Dannydoyle wrote:

There is NO computer tracking system that will be able to counter the simple house advantage of the bets. EVERY bet has a negative expectation. You can NOT beat it.



The above statement is inaccurate and Jason simply pointed that out (In detail).

SD
The Great Marok
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Danny, you're wrong. I don't know why you find it so impossible to believe that people can use visual prediction to get a slight edge in roulette. Nobody's saying that someone can come and with 100% accuracy predict the number on which the ball can land. But with a lot of practice (let's say years of practice), you can give yourself a slight edge in let's say cutting it down to half the numbers. If you manage to get the correct half of the roulette wheel 60% of the time (you can get it to 50% just by random guessing) and, let's say with the help of an assistant or two you're able to place all the correct bets a portion of that time, you can give yourself an edge of let's say 1%, to be conservative. With years of practice in how to play the game, it's naive to think that this is not possible for anyone to do. Even if the wheels are perfectly balanced, it is impossible to train a human to spin the wheel in a truly random fashion on every single spin. And with a biased wheel it would be even easier to use it to your advantage. In fact I think that a decent number of people would in fact be able to do it, if they put in the huge amount of effort. So why aren't there billionaires who made money just playing roulette?
Well, even if you're able to do this, that is create a 1% advantage in your favor, it still wouldn't be easy to make money doing it. Let's say you're making $100 dollar bets (with larger bets you'd need a much larger staring bankroll). Your expectation value is $1, and to keep it simple let's say that the standard deviation is around 1 bet, or $100. That means after 1 bet your expectation value is, with a 68% confidence level, between $1 +/- $100. So as you can see the error is much greater than the $1. For a large number of events, the expectation value rises approximately as square root of the number of events. So for 10000 spins of the wheel, there's a 68% chance that you would have $10000 +/- $10000. Now you see that the standard deviation is becoming comparable to the money you're making. But even after 10000 spins of the wheel, with your advantage, there's still a roughly 16% chance that you would actually be losing money! Now let's increase the number of trials to 1 million. After one million trials, you have a 68% chance of earning $1000000 +/- $100000! So you see luck has now been pretty much eliminated. But to do this and earn around one million dollars, you would need 1000000 spins of the wheel, with your perfect play on every spin! It is easy to see that this would take years and years, in the process of which you might actually lose all your money before you even are able to eliminate luck, and all the while you need to play perfectly and you need beforehand years of practice.
So what's the point? Is it theoretically possible to beat roulette? The answer is yes. I've sketched the math which you so love. Is it practical though? I have to say no, and that I think is why the richest man in the world is not a roulette player.
But it is theoretically possible, and in real life, not in some 'fantasy land'. Actually you're living in a fantasy land if you believe that every spin of the roulette wheel brings a truly random outcome.
This is a system of beating roulette that doesn't include any cheating, and is a system in the same way that card counting, shuffle tracking and other things they do in blackjack is a system. And blackjack is considered a 'beatable' game precisely because you can do these things.
So, IMO, Jason was right in what he was saying the whole time, and looking at the posts I don't see that he changed his position at any point.
On the other hand, the article from Cigar Aficionado is I think greatly exaggerated and naive, especially when it comes to how shuffle tracking works (although the basics are true, I don't think that the writer actually witnessed some things exactly as he says they happened).
My two cents.
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