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silverking
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Maybe we should re-visit Steve Fortes thoughts on the subject of Visual Prediction:

"Visual prediction is only a practical, viable strategy in games with the very best playing conditions. These games are not widespread, and few modern wheels exhibit the perfect ball track bias that's needed.
A complete understanding of the strategy's mathematics is a must for determining which wheels can be played with an edge, and which wheels only offer a guessing game."

One could take from Forte's thoughts that you could walk up to different roulette wheels for the rest of your life and never find one that could be exploited by visual prediction.
If you DID happen to find one, you would only know you'd found it if you were in possession of advanced knowledge of mathematics and a complimentary skill set far more advanced than card counting and shuffle tracking.
To say it would take years, perhaps decades, to get this skill set and math knowledge might not be much of an overstatement.........but THEN you'd have to find the wheel.

It DOES seem highly unlikely that we'll see documented evidence of ongoing successes enjoyed by folks using visual prediction as a system to win at roulette.

Forte goes on to imply that, as important as considering visual tracking a possible winning roulette system in very specific circumstances might be to use knowledge of visual prediction to simply understand what IS possible, and to use that understanding to get a clearer understanding of the physical and mechanical realities present in the game of Roulette.

As I always do when the subject is the intricacies of house games, I'll take Forte's information as accurate enough to walk away from this thread with the thought that I have got a grasp on all the arguments everybody was making, and have taken from those arguments enough information to know enough to continue to avoid the roulette table like the plague.

(Forte's thoughts paraphrased by me from his indispensable book, Casino Game Protection, 1994)
tommy
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Maybe we should re-visit my thoughts on the subject:

It is possible it exists.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YjwOFt7_Vf4
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
Expertmagician
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Smile
Long Island,

New York
Dannydoyle
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Maybe my point that if each bet has a negative expectation, no matter how small, you will lose the game in the long run. That is what I mean by math is math.

That is what I mean by statements like this. NO SYSTEM, (Now remember I am using the word SYSTEM to mean betting strategy ok?) is going to get past it. If each bet (not cheating manuver) has a negative expectation, (what you can "expect from the action of placing a bet essentially.) you will lose as time goes on. No doubt.

**DISCLAIMER** I fully understand this is NOT the right definition of "expectation" or "expected value" but it is close enough for this thread.

As for cheating computers, I don't think they are practical right now.

As for past postiing, I think it is a great idea. IF I HAD THE GUTS to cheat a casino, I would learn to cheat Roulette.

Oh and Marok, math is math, and you can't beat the math are not meaningless statements. The casino you can be certain, KNOWS the math! When math tells you that you are going to lose money, well in general you lose money.

Math is how Blackjack Basic Strategy came about, card counting, sports betting and so forth. It is the foundation of ALL gambling. If you don't have an understanding of it that is fine, but don't play it off as if it does not matter. That is a sure recipe for losing in the long run.
Danny Doyle
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<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
stoneunhinged
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Man, I really hate to dig up an old thread, but:

A couple of days ago I was talking to a couple of my students about roulette, and one of them started in with the old "there are maybe 10 or 12 guys in the entire world who can do it..." bit about visual prediction.

What's interesting is that one of the students came back to me the next day with a name:

Christian Kaisan

The guy claims to have won millions over the years. I suspect that he is just conning everybody. Anyway, I wanted to ask if any of you have heard of him. Google just turns up bunch of articles in German--nearly all of which seem to just assume he is an accomplished visual predictor.

Here's something in English (obviously a poor translation):

http://vlsroulette.com/forum/YaBB.pl?num=1204376795

So, anybody ever hear of this guy?
silverking
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If the casino's really thought there was a chance of visual prediction being effective to the point of a player actually being able to seriously take them off with it, they'd simply call "no more bets" sooner than they do now.

They COULD call it as soon after the dealer releases the ball as they'd like to, but calling it later results in more action, more bets, and a larger take for the casino.

The casino's would appear to believe that visual prediction on a "perfectly" aligned wheel (yes, I know "perfect" doesn't exist) isn't a threat to their bottom line.
stoneunhinged
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Yes, but....

If I ran a casino, and there was one guy in a billion who had a slight advantage which we noticed, but we also know that he has a book or even ten books for sale, well....

Does he do us more good than harm?

At any rate, I think this guy is probably a fraud--meaning: he hasn't really won the millions he says he had, and no one calls him on it, and then intelligent students of mine think that visual prediction is viable for diligent players.
Vandy Grift
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He looks like Ben Kingsley with those glasses.
"Get a life dude." -some guy in a magic forum
stoneunhinged
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LOL! Ghandi at the roulette table!
Vandy Grift
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One must be slow to form convictions, but once formed they must be defended against the heaviest odds - Mahatma Gandhi

Tell that to those *** kids. lol!
"Get a life dude." -some guy in a magic forum
iamslow
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Quote:
On 2007-09-27 00:38, tommy wrote:
I don’t think you get any advantage getting the right half right 51% of the time do you?

There are 38 numbers and if you back half of them it costs $19 at $1 each and your return is $36 at 35 to 1 a profit of $17 a win.

After 100 spins you have won 51 x $17 = $867 and lost 49 x $19 = $931

A loss of $64.

I think I would be pretty rich if I could guess which half of the wheel the ball will fall 51% of the time...
"Everyone is tough till they get punched in the face" Mike Tyson
Bret Maverick
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Stoney,

I have trouble believing that Christian Kaisan made millions with a visual prediction method unless he played in very large houses with lots of poorly maintained roulette wheels operated many years ago by the blind, or he had inside help in biasing the wheels, which is still questionable for the scores he claims he made.

Michael Konik, in his 1995 article "One Step Ahead" asked Steve Forte to explain Visual Prediction at Roulette:

Quote:
Forte instructs his visitor to watch where the ball "falls off" the track and into the dish of spinning numbers. It loses its momentum and dives down at the "10 o'clock" position. On the next spin it does it again. And again. And again. Thirteen times in a row. "There's no such thing as a perfect wheel," Forte says. "They're basically a piece of furniture. They take abuse, they get dirty, they get worn down. They produce biased results." Using a technique called visual prediction, advantage players exploit the wheel's imperfections.

Outlined in How to Beat Roulette, a book by Laurence Scott, the visual-prediction method is built on an immutable law of physics: regardless of how fast the ball is spun by the croupier, it must necessarily end at the same speed. Advantage players beat the wheel from the "back" of the spin, not the front. They play the last four or five revolutions of the ball. After finding a wheel with a clear bias--Forte says there's probably at least one in every major casino in the United States--they clock the speed of the rotor (the spinning dish of numbers), looking for one that takes between two and three seconds per revolution. (This is surprisingly easy to time in your head, without a stopwatch.)

By correlating the speed of the rotor with the ball's predictable "drop point," the advantage player can gauge which number will be sitting directly under the ball when it dives into the dish. Even taking into account the volatility of the ball's bounce, when betting late enough in the spin, advantage players can essentially narrow the list of probable numbers from 38 to 19, obliterating the House's normal 5 percent edge.

In the course of Forte's explanation of visual prediction, the ball has fallen off the same spot on the wheel 25 out of 27 times. At a nearby high-limit blackjack table, he detects the dealer's hole card in four of the last five hands. And at the craps table behind us, they're looking for a new shooter.


Prior to the start of one of Steve's game protection lectures I was spinning the ball on the roulette wheel set-up back of house for his use and, after only a few spins, noticed that the ball dropped in the same area of the wheel each time. Puzzled that one of our casino's well maintained wheels could be so out of whack by simply moving it from the casino floor to a table in the back-room used for dealer training, I mentioned it to Steve who "shushed" me to be quiet until his lecture was over.

Well, after he successfully demonstrated "section shooting" a few times for the gawking attendees who claimed it couldn't be done he revealed why the wheel was so biased: he had slipped a single wheel cheque under the back of the wheel while straightening out the stacks of cheques when no one was looking, and just that thin disk was enough to totally skew the results. His ability to estimate which section of the wheel would be under the edge of the wheel where the ball would drop was the hard part, but his uncanny ability to count in his head as he conversed with others was quite a percentage play.

Obviously, it's possible that, with some inside help and a thinner shim to avoid such strong work, a small crew can make a decent buck. But a single person traveling to scores of casinos around the world making millions as Kaisan claims, without getting caught?

Sounds far-fetched to me. I'm fairly observant and haven't seen a wheel that biased, despite looking for one whenever the opportunity presents itself but, I'll admit, I don't frequent many of the older properties where proper wheel maintenance is not a priority.

Bret
"If all a man can count on is finally pushing up the grass, when I do I'll lay you odds that grass is mine!" - Theme Song For The T.V. Series BRET MAVERICK, by Ed Bruce
Dannydoyle
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Also the casino's themselvs have a serious stake in spotting the bias wheels. Heck they are on the look out more than players.

The guy seems to be a fraud. May not be but I have seen nothing he has ever presented to sway me otherwise.
Danny Doyle
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<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
stoneunhinged
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I spent about a half an hour reading everything Google popped up about the guy, and NOTHING confirms that he's for real. Web sites just keep repeating the story that this guy is a professional roulette player who has won millions.

There are also a lot of accusations (but from individuals on forums rather than journalists) that he is in fact a mentally unstable con man.

This story is exceptionally interesting for this reason: someone can go around saying, "Hey, I can do X", and his claim gets reported and repeated and he can write a book and make money claiming he can do "X", but NO SERIOUS JOURNALIST OR INVESTIGATOR EVER EXPOSES HIM! Very, very strange.

Apparently the world of gambling is so...well...on the perimeter (at least in Europe) that no one cares. It's like investigating the bearded lady at the carnival.

Yet the guy sells books!

Strange world.
Dannydoyle
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He sells books because years ago science grossly underestimated the birthrate of the average sucker.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus
<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
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