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EsnRedshirt
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The US economy is going south; it's due to more factors than the housing bubble.

First- The housing bubble is certainly part of it, but the finances are more complex than a cursory glance would indicate. Sub-prime loans (loans to high risk investors, such as those people needing to use an ARM to afford a house) are parcelled out and wrapped up in various funds- the idea being that while, individually, such a loan is risky, when looked at in bulk, they will not all collapse simultaneously. This led to those funds being sold as a safer investment than they really were, so when the sub-prime collapsed, funds in which banks had invested a great deal were suddenly next to worthless. Now, banks can't trade those funds for enough money to pay back investors. It's a lot more complex than that, but in a nutshell, that's the sub-prime/housing problem.

Second- Oil has passed $100/barrel, which increases the price of gasoline. Apart from costing much more to fill up your car's gas tank, this affects every single method of transport of goods- from mail to raw materials to food. Combine this with the rising cost of feed corn (since some of it's being diverted to ethanol production) and you start seeing the price of all consumables rise- corn, milk, beef, pork- it has a ripple effect through the economy.

Third- The cost of raw materials is increasing beyond the rate of rising transport costs, because China and other countries need metals as they develop and expand their industries. This, combined with the transport cost, results in a greatly increased cost for steel, aluminum, and other goods, along with materials made with them.

Fourth- Due to rising costs, people are spending less to cut expenses and try and reduce their personal debt, which translates to lower durable goods consumption with the following effects- the price of durable goods will either drop as sellers try to clear out their stock, or rise for less common items to make up for lack of sales and increased materials costs. For magicians, this basically means that our props will get more expensive.

Fifth- As durable goods sales decrease, the need to produce and deliver them also decreases. This translates to corporate downsizing to cut costs and an increase in unemployment.

However, as mentioned above, the entertainment sector frequently does well in recessions because people like to forget how tough things are for them.

In summary- expect hard times for magic sellers and a substantial rise in the price of your props, but in general, an increase of business in specific markets. (Less corporate shows, but more local shows and birthday parties.)
Self-proclaimed Jack-of-all-trades and google expert*.

* = Take any advice from this person with a grain of salt.
RobertBloor
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Quote:
On 2008-02-08 09:20, Marshall Thornside wrote:
I think we are in a recession (for a while now) and are going into a depression.
No one wants to really say so.

I don't know what kind of effect there will be on the entertainment industry, since I can't remember what it was like in the early '80s, as I was just in grade school.


To echo what Danny said earlier - no, we're not. At least, not by definition.

And consider this (though the DOW is just one small part of the economy)...

On October 09, 2002, the DOW fell 215.22 to close at 7,286.27.
Today it's running around 12,400.00, give or take. That's still in the neighborhood of 75%+/- what it was in October '02.

We may be headed for a recession, but it is certainly not here yet. And when we do, it shouldn't be welcomed with pessimism, but optimism. The US economy is cyclical. We can not make our next great climb without a slight tumble first.

Robert
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Big Daddy Cool
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What recession?

I can't speak to any other market, but in the theater market, audiences increase during down turns in the economy...
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Brent Allan
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I didn't see anyone mention this, but one reason we MIGHT be heading into a recession is because the media SAYS we are heading into a recession. If you look at trends in the economy, fads, etc., they are largely influenced by the media.

The key is to have multiple streams of income (some of them passive streams) so that you don't have all of your eggs in one basket.
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RobertBloor
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Quote:
Brent Allen: I didn't see anyone mention this, but one reason we MIGHT be heading into a recession is because the media SAYS we are heading into a recession. If you look at trends in the economy, fads, etc., they are largely influenced by the media.


Excellent point.

Iraq also wasn't a major issue until the media started babbling about it nonstop.

Mike Huckabee had NO money and NO chance to win until the media spent about 3 weeks before Iowa raving about him. (Imagine what positive press for a little guy like Ron Paul would do.)

And now it's "recession, recession, recession" - yes. You make a good point, Brent.

And to think, Americans think "we the people" elect a president. Ha! Not if Rupert has anything to do with it.

Robert
"That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government,"
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Dannydoyle
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If Rupert had anything to say, would we have the Republican nominee we have now? Doubt it.

Let's be honest, when the first term of George Bush came to an end, the economy was surging back. So much so that President Clinton took credit for it about 4 months after taking office, when in reality NOT ONE of his policies had time to be put into play, let alone take affect. The media wanted Clinton, and never reported the good news. Life goes on.

Make no mistake, the media and slick marketers have elected every president, for better or worse, since Truman. No matter WHICH PARTY they have been from.
Danny Doyle
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<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
RobertBloor
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Quote:
dannydoyle: If Rupert had anything to say, would we have the Republican nominee we have now? Doubt it.


You might be surprised who he's donated money to.

Robert
"That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government,"
-The Declaration of Independence
Dannydoyle
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You mean, we have a media guy who donates money to LOTS of people to kind of cover his bets? Say it isn't so!
Danny Doyle
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<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
Marshall Thornside
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The way the interest rates have dropped in the past two weeks tells me we are in a recession.

Definition or not.

It's really sickening when my checking & savings have lost 1/4 of its worth.
And even more depressing when my IRA has gone down 50% its worth.

I'm not making any money with my money in the bank right now.
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RobertBloor
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Quote:
Marshall: The way the interest rates have dropped in the past two weeks tells me we are in a recession.


The Fed cutting interest rates isn't to stimulate the economy, it's to introduce more liquidity into the economy and further increase our national debt.

Just remember, "The Fed" is, never has been, and never will be part of the US Government. They are not our friends.

Robert
"That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government,"
-The Declaration of Independence
SpellbinderEntertainment
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In the old days, the good Entertainers even made it through the "Great Depression"...and that was with the collapse of Vaudeville during the same era.

Magic thrived during rough spots in the '50s, '60s, and '70s too.

Obama, Clinton, McCain, Huckabee?
Should make little difference in our gig's bottom line.

If your work is original and you market to your focus client base, you'll be just dandy!

I am cautious, but certainly not worried.
Magically,
Walt
magicofCurtis
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Quote:
On 2008-02-09 14:27, Marshall Thornside wrote:
The way the interest rates have dropped in the past two weeks tells me we are in a recession.

Definition or not.

It's really sickening when my checking & savings have lost 1/4 of its worth.
And even more depressing when my IRA has gone down 50% its worth.

I'm not making any money with my money in the bank right now.


Sweetie, if your checking account or CDs dropped, you are banking at the wrong banks.
CDs (most) are locked in checking accounts and savings accounts with the right bank pays as much as a basic CD... WAMU (Washington Mutual) is paying 4.5 on a basic savings and checking... Pretty good for not being locked in like a CD...... But, this is the time to buy STOCK in the fallen angels..... $20 to 50 G's in the right company right now will most likely triple in a year or less... Smile This is the time when millions are made in the right investments, since things are CHEAP!
jay leslie
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I've made it through three bad periods in history, so I understand the economics. The holidays were very slow. Two calls yesterday were from former customers who knew the price I charged them 3 and 5 years ago. Even though I told them I had raised my prices over the last few years by 30 percent, I would still give them a deal at the same price I charged them in the past. One was silent, so I added a special feature and they were as cold as ice. I added another value, but no luck. Both hung up on me, stating they had to make some other calls. They were polite, but not willing to bargain. They didn't want any details, just price.

For the next quarter, I'm going to spend time building props and not chasing rainbows.
Dannydoyle
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Well, selling based only on price seems a tough way to go in a recession, real or imagined. LOL
Danny Doyle
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<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
RobertBloor
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spellbinder: Obama, Clinton, McCain, Huckabee?
Should make little difference in our gig's bottom line.


Don't forget Ron Paul, also. He's still running for President.

Robert
"That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government,"
-The Declaration of Independence
SpellbinderEntertainment
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Hey, how could a guy with two first names get elected ("Ron" - "Paul")???

Magically,

Walt
"Walt" - "Anthony" <grin>
RobertBloor
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Quote:
On 2008-02-10 11:35, SpellbinderEntertainment wrote:
Hey, how could a guy with two first names get elected ("Ron" - "Paul")???

Magically,

Walt
"Walt" - "Anthony" <grin>


How cute. Smile

Chester Arthur
Ulysses Grant
Abraham Lincoln
Thomas Jefferson
James Madison
John Tyler
Zachary Taylor
Grover Cleveland
Bill Clinton

To name a few. Smile haha

Robert
"That whenever any Form of Government becomes destructive of these ends, it is the Right of the People to alter or to abolish it, and to institute new Government,"
-The Declaration of Independence
Dannydoyle
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Beat me to it.

George Washington is notably absent from your list, though.
Danny Doyle
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<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
Doug Higley
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Entertainment is ALWAYS at the the top of a population's list when times get tough. It's how the flickers made it through and, yes, magicians as Paul points out. A feller and his goil can only take so much being depressed...

This is why if times get tough (I'm not at all convinced they will) Entertainment that is up lifting and positive (like the MGM Musicals) will thrive. The Torture flicks will be buried where they belong.

In our case, Bizarrists may have to lose the black robes and get a straw hat and bamboo cane. Smile
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Cody Comet
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I don't think us magicians will suffer much at all during this period of time. Look at how many parents spend thousands and thousands of dollars to take their kids to Disney World, good times and bad.
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