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John C
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Just a thought I've had about predictions. Is it REALLY a prediction if you pull a prewritten prediction from your wallet or pocket or preprinted banner etc?

I mean shouldn't a prediction be based on the person you are trying to influence?

Shouldn't it be a spur of the moment ... something where you ask the spec a few questions then write something down?

Just to get some opinions and spur some thought.

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Chris K
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As always, this is my opinion.

To be very simplistic, of course it is a prediction, that is the freaking definition of the word, a statement or claim that a particular event will occur in the future. I fail to see why your example is not a prediction. Ok, that is being simplistic and literal.

I think that many performers get locked into ways of thinking based on "labels" and what THEY think a show should look like. What about the idea of a prediction means that it has to be based on the person you are influencing? Do you already see that? You have already introduced the idea of influence whereas the word prediction has absolutely no relation to influence.

Weather forecasters predict rain but they are not influencing, right? So, the idea here is that you need to seperate out the word "prediction" from what you are trying to do. It then follows that your "prediction" should match whatever the effect is.

A couple examples:
A headline PREDICTION simply cannot be played as relating to influence. It must be prewritten and the longer in advance it is prewritten, the better.

Now, let us talk about the prediction you are referring to, John. A prediction based on the idea of influencing the spectator. Again, why can't it be prewritten? If you are influencing somebody, it only follows that you know what you want to influence them towards, right? I guess you can make the argument that you decide spur of the moment, which is a fine presentational approach for some.

Personally, I think that what you wrote "prediction" is different than what you are trying to express through the effect. I actually think you are trying to express any or all of the following (which are NOT predictions): telepathy (what they are thinking about now), intution (what the are drawn to). These are not predictions, by any definition of the word, because prediction is defined by predicting the future, not the present.

I think the label prediction is thrown around so much that we always use it even though it is completely inappropriate and counterproductive to the effects we want to demonstrate.

Obviously, this is something I have thought about before and a bit of a pet peeve (is prediction really that hard of a concept?). Now, what I would love, is a completely opposite take on the subject. I've thoroughly convinced myself that my rationale regarding predictions is completely sound but, as I have learned, often different points of view are required to stimulate creativity.

Corona Smith
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Hi John, In my humble opinion a prediction 'pre - diction' (before speaking?) should be made before the moment in question.

So in short YES, your description of a prediction is exactly that.

What you then go on to describe might be considered a kind of divination.

All the best,

Corona (An april fool).
M. H. Goodman
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I guess it depends on how you present it. If you're predicting what choices a spectator will make based on what you have been able to pick up about him or her, then obviously it would make no sense for your prediction to have been made far in advance (unless, of course, the spectator happens to be someone you already know). However, if you are subliminally or psychically directing a spectator towards a certain outcome, I don’t see why that outcome needs to be something that you have chosen on the spur of the moment.
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I don't think there is a "absolute" answer to your question. Here are my thoughts.

If you claim to be able to "predict / forecast what will happen in the future" ... it seems to me that "how much" in advance you make your predicition / forecast is not that critical.

In my own role as a mentalist, I claim the ability to have the mental ability to "forecast" what will happen ... rather than predict the future - to me that's sounds more believable. There are all kinds of people making a living as forecasters - although not all forecasters are accurate.

What is important is that you display your forecast as soon as possible in your routine. If your forecast is visible from the start, it is more believable and more amazing. My "forecasts" are also written/printed large enough for everyone in the auduience to read.

Something that puzzles audiences: If you can "forecast" what will happen in the future, why have your forecast/predictioon written on a small piece of paper that is in you wallet? This seems less believable than having the prediction in a large envelope or on a banner.

Also, there is also a fine line between "influence" and "prediction/forecasting"

The mentalist should carefully and clearly explain to the audience exactly what mental ability the audience will witness at the start of the routine.

I suspect you still perform "Triple Influence". From the begining, the patter in this routine revolves around different ways to influence a person's choice. And, at the end, people are amazed to see you were successful in all three attempts.

Yet, you could take the same props/methods ... and create the patter to make this into a "Triple Prediction" routine.

Hope this helps. Keep amazing people!


Yet, if you ask a person a few questions
Doug Higley
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My trick 3 No Evil, contains a Prediction made in 1942 which will be revealed by the actions of the current spectator. Aren't they lucky to be chosen at that moment! Smile

Of course you can always write your own and change the storyline.
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Samuel Catoe
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Predictions can be of any nature really, based on the person you are working with, the weather, sporting events, and on and on. If it is a prewritten statement that you pull out of an envelope or a hastily scribbled note written on the ride to the venue that you put in your wallet, it is still a prediction.
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