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James Blake Stone II New user Lisle, IL formerly of Ireland 28 Posts |
I love Jung's work.
SpiritualStage looks like an amazing read. Love the business with the card, Nicholas! |
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Brian Lehr Inner circle Edmonton, Canada 1605 Posts |
Quote:
On 2008-12-08 23:17, The Awesome One wrote: I'm not a mathematician, so I'd like to throw this out for the more "statistically-minded". If Nicholas had asked one person to name a card, and that card was the correct one, that would have been a 1 in 52 occurrence. But that's not what happened. According to Nicholas, there were four 3 individuals, and one group, involved, thus giving us four separate events: 1. I ask one boy the colour of the card...he says red! 2. I ask another boy the suit...he says diamond! 3. I ask a third if its high or low....he says low...and then adds...REALLY low 4. I say "well it must be either 1,2,3 or 4" We do a vote, and the winner is three of diamonds." So, the first person guessed the correct color, which would be a 1 out 2 chance of getting it correct. The second guessed the correct suit, making that guess 1 out 4; the third said it was really low, making that guess ... ok, at this point I'm mathematically-challenged; and then the whole group votes on the exact number. So, for you statistical geniuses, what are the mathematical chances of arriving at the correct card after all four occurrences? Brian |
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The Awesome One Regular user Gold Coast, Australia 174 Posts |
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On 2008-12-09 01:39, Brian Lehr wrote: I will give it a go. The first choice was black or red so that's 1 out of 2 (1/2) second is the suit which is still 1 in 2 because it has to be red (1/2) third is high or low which is (1/2) lastly Nick gave them a choice of 4 so therefore (1/4) to get the average the formula is odds= (1/2)*(1/2)*(1/2)*(1/4) this gives 0.03125 or 1 in 32 It is lower than 52 because Nick limited the last choice to 4. If he kept with the high/low thing it would be half 13(number of cards in a suit or (1/6.5) Applying the same formula again gives you 0.019231 or 1 in 52 Adam
Win if you can, lose if you must, but always cheat.
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John Bowlin Special user Maryland 827 Posts |
The odds are still 1 in 52 since no card was specifically eliminated at the outset. The second guess(the suit) is 1 out of 2 since the "red" has already been called. The magician helps his own cause however when he says it must be a 1,2,3 or 4. The magician made the determination that a 5 is not "really low". Also some people think of the ace as really high so that may have been subconciously eliminated for some. Even with all these variables there was still the statistical chance of 1 in 52 with a possible slight reduction to maybe 1 in 48 from the magician eliminating the 5. If one finds the odds miraculous then never buy lottery tickets...you will think the world is against you.
1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/6.5 = 1/52...highest possible odds as presented. Now if you split your audience and had 2 different groups come up with same card under same conditions you'd have a slight true miracle. That would be 1 in 2704. Also by asking high or low the magician probably psychologically eliminated 6 thru 9 because these would be ambiguously high or low. Awesome job!...you probably psychologically steered your audience into upping your odds without even realizing it! If we can assume this the odds of nailing it were 1 in 36. Pretty cool presentation no matter how you slice it though If someone just blurted out a card it would not have near the same effect. |
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John Bowlin Special user Maryland 827 Posts |
The only reason our numbers differ is that I gave a statistical value to the person who added "really low", what was the odds of that?!
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Tony James Inner circle Cheshire UK 1398 Posts |
Which all goes to illustrate why magicians approach things the way they do in order to ensure 1/1 every time!
Tony James
Still A Child At Heart |
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Potty the Pirate Inner circle 4632 Posts |
[quote]On 2008-12-08 23:17, The Awesome One wrote:
"It's a 1 in 52 chance, think about how often you perform card tricks and this kind of thing is bound to happen enough for us to notice it." ..exactly how I came to realise that chance doesn't come into it. For years, I've witnessed these "coincidences" happening far, far more frequently than 1/52. And it was specifically with playing cards that I made most of my discoveries about what we term "paranormal" events. Now, as I say, when I sense that such an occurrence will happen, I am right every time. I've learned to identify the sensation that goes through me which tells me such an event is about to occur. Of course, many won't believe me, but hey, once upon a time, folks thought the Earth was flat. And anyone who could flick a switch and cause a light to come on across the room, would have been burnt at the stake. Ok, so you might call it "magic", but I call it "undiscovered science". Potty |
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harris Inner circle Harris Deutsch 8812 Posts |
Back when I carried more change in my pocket...I loved it when a bill came out to say...$14.28..and I had 28 cents in my pocket.(along with enough dollars in my wallet)
My wife smiles when I predict the grocery total to less than a dollar.(no I don't use a hidden calculator....) and going further into the nearly normal memories... back when I worked at the state hospital.(worked not a client).we were trained in sand therapy using lots of minature figures...from dogs ...to babies...to figures from mythology...yes very Yungian...and great for folks that weren't very verbal... digression and morning stream of conciousness continues.... Sometimes a event/cigar is just a cigar...(mixing metaphors and theories) sometimes it just might be a bit more....said Nigel the puppet that rocks..and might be reading y o you r mind.... Harris.. still 2 old to know everything...
Harris Deutsch aka dr laugh
drlaugh4u@gmail.com music, magic and marvelous toys http://magician.org/member/drlaugh4u |
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NJJ Inner circle 6437 Posts |
[quote]On 2008-12-09 07:37, Potty the Pirate wrote:
Quote:
On 2008-12-08 23:17, The Awesome One wrote: Potty - that is quite a bold claim. To prove it properly, you'd need to offically record every time you have attempted such an effect and every time it has failed/succeeded. Simply relying on your own memory of such events is where confirmation bias and the barnum effect come into play. Learn how to record your findings, analyze the data and then reach a conclusion on that data and we may have someting to discuss. |
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Harry Stanley New user 47 Posts |
Are our lives completely out of our control? Is everything planned for us?
Is there no such thing as coincidences? When, what appears to be a Coincidence takes place; could it be fate or destiny or synchronicity? These are questions that are asked by many seekers of the truth. I would certainly not pretend to know all the answers. What I do believe is that we all have total freedom. We have freedom of choice. However, I believe we are guided in the choices that we make. Let me talk about coincidences, as the two are inter-connected. I shall give you an example of this. In the mid 1970’s I was doing my illusion act with my wife at The Grand Theatre in Swansea, South Wales. It was a one week engagement. We were the opening act in a variety show. The top of the bill act was a group called Coco, who was the British winner in the Eurovision song contest. Although the group was in the same show, we actually never spoke to them until the final night. There were 4 people in the group, and the lead singer was called Terry Bradford. While chatting together in the dressing room on the last night, we discovered we both lived in London. Swansea is about 250 miles from London. On further probing, we found we both lived in East London. I asked him on which street. He said Hibbert Road. Hibbert Road is one of many streets off a much large road call Lea Bridge Road. I declared that I also lived on Hibbert Road. Which number, I asked. Terry’s reply was 79. I informed him that I lived at 78! We lived almost opposite each other. Was this a coincidence, or was this an act of Spirit, bringing these two souls together? I believe that it was, indeed, an act of divine intervention and no coincidence. Terry became a good friend. In fact, he is one of my best lifelong friends. He was, and still is in the music business. |
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NJJ Inner circle 6437 Posts |
Harry - you speak of faith and belief, things which should rarely be subjected to the harsh light of logic, reason and scientific thought. (look what happened to the whole 'intelligent design' debate!)
Instead, I will simply say that there must be great comfort in a faith that connects the universe together in invisible threads beyond that of causality and chance.I envy you for that. |
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Cesar Munoz Veteran user 370 Posts |
Nicholas,
You're an inspiration to us all--great story! Cesar |
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Brian Lehr Inner circle Edmonton, Canada 1605 Posts |
When I was a teenager, I lived in Labrador City (in Newfoundland and Labrador). While doing a school research paper on the history of Lab. City, I discovered that it used to be called Carol Lake, before the name was changed. In that city, we lived on a street called Carol Drive. Four years after leaving there for northern Alberta, I married a beautiful lady named... Carol. We've now been together 26 years.
Coincidence? Probably not, but I still like the story. Brian BTW, if I say that one of my most favorite types of music is Christmas Carols, does that help it become more of a coincidence? |
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Potty the Pirate Inner circle 4632 Posts |
[quote]On 2008-12-09 17:29, Nicholas J. Johnson wrote:
Harry - you speak of faith and belief, things which should rarely be subjected to the harsh light of logic, reason and scientific thought. Nicholas, it's precisely this train of thought that is holding scientists back today! I have documkented and recorded many of the "coincidences" that have occrred to me, and a few to friends of mine. I'll post a few examples later. Harry's example is one that I can give you many examples of from my own life. I assure you that this isn't some fantasy of mine, I was a science student in my younger years, and in addition to maths, physics, and chemistry, I also studied philosophy. Alongside of that I started to develop my faith, because I realised that there was an intelligence greater than that of Mankind, and it seemed to be all around us. Of course, I don't have all the answers, but I am 100% positive, beyond any shadow of a doubt, that there is a "fount of knowledge" to which we are all able to connect. Some call it "God", some "Javeh", and some "Universal Intelligence". Call it what you will, it IS real. OK, so many of you will think I'm away with the fairies! I'll post more later, must dash, as I have a show this morning. Potty |
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James Blake Stone II New user Lisle, IL formerly of Ireland 28 Posts |
This conversation is a delight!
I too find many coincidences connected. Perhaps even here! Harry's story has found coincidence with me, as I know another famous performer who lived near his location at the time he was there (I'll pm him on this, I believe he'll find it amusing!). I do not believe Potty has been abducted by fairies, though. I cannot for the life of me fathom performing for children without believing in what Potty speaks of. There is definitely a connection amongst all of us! It's this connection that if recognized would actually bring peace...at least in my belief. Potty, have you any plans to read "Spiritual Stage"? How does one go about getting a copy? James |
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NJJ Inner circle 6437 Posts |
Potty - I would suggest subjecting your hypothesis to more rigorous testing before using phrases like "100% positive, beyond any shadow of doubt".
You are more than welcome to be 'away with the fairies' if it makes you happy. So much of what we believe is fanciful and irrational and illogical. Yet we need it to live our lives. You just need to be careful when you start claiming you have proof! The standards of proof are not very high in theology and spirituality (nor should they be) and it can come as quite a shock. |
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James Blake Stone II New user Lisle, IL formerly of Ireland 28 Posts |
Nicholas,
You are indeed forgetting the Shroud of Turin, it's never been proved false as far as my knowledge. Of course fairies actually derive from the ancient "beaker people" or aborigines that inhabited England before the Celts arrived on their "flying ships of gold". I've heard in Wales one can still meet the descendants of these people...I emphasize "heard" because I have not witnessed it. However, my source is strong. Of course, there are the infamous "Cottingham fairies" from two centuries past...many a Victorian hoped they were real! I've heard of late that Kentucky's legislature is under fire from athiests (ten altogether and one "association") who would like them to take any mention of God out of their state's "credo". I was amazed there were actually any atheists in Kentucky. I had no idea the gene pool could produce such specimens. You can take that either way, really. I could mean it both ways, depending on what I'm drinking. So, back to the 3 of Diamonds, a "rev-ered" number by some, and especially by a particular Mother. |
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NJJ Inner circle 6437 Posts |
The shroud of turin? Kentucky atheists? Flying ships of gold? Cottingham fairies?
This is the moment that this thread jumped the shark! |
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The Awesome One Regular user Gold Coast, Australia 174 Posts |
[quote]On 2008-12-09 07:37, Potty the Pirate wrote:
Quote:
..exactly how I came to realise that chance doesn't come into it. For years, I've witnessed these "coincidences" happening far, far more frequently than 1/52. And it was specifically with playing cards that I made most of my discoveries about what we term "paranormal" events. Potty, I'm a little confused about what this "gift" is that you are talking about. Are you saying that you can predict what card a spectator has freely chosen (no force) more often than 1/52? If this is right, and you say you have "documented" these events then how often do you get it right? is it 1/40, 1/30, 1/20, 1/10 or better? Not denying anything your saying just curious to know what we are talking about and what you have actually witnessed and documented. Also Harry I'm not sure what this great coincidence that your talking about is? As far as I can tell you became good friends with someone that happened to live nearby that you met while working. Nice story, but I don't get the great coincidence and unlocking the mysteries of the universe it is supposed to share??? As far as fairies and ships of gold... I'm just going to ignore that post. Adam
Win if you can, lose if you must, but always cheat.
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Harry Stanley New user 47 Posts |
Quote:
On 2008-12-10 19:30, The Awesome One wrote: Adam (the first-born).....odd that you would not get this. Just to clarify, there are millions of people living in Great Britain. Only very few of them are in show-business. One of them was a neighbour of mine. However, even though he lived on my little street, we never met there. We met in a show together in Wales, which is 250 miles from London. He became a lifelong friend and mentor. It was not a coincidence. This is how the universe works. There are no coincidences, as stated before. It is not a coincidence that you are currently reading these words. They have been written by me to make you think. Potty is right on this, and is a wise man. |
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