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Doug Higley
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If a thing is One In A Million...that means this 'thing' can happen anywhere between ONE and a MILLION. When ever it does hapen, it changes the odds...if it occurs at 600 then statistics will show it's One In 600 not a million. So of what purpose are the odds...if it happens at #10 is it still one in a million or One in 10?

If it's one in a million that a ladder will fall off a building and hit you on the head...then over 300 intances of this exact thing should be occuring every day in the USA...or is it every minute? So let's say statistics show that if you shoot a BB Gun there is a one in two million chance you'll put your eye out. You figure those are safe odds for now and pick up the Red Ryder. On shot number 27...you put your eye. Oops.

A one in ten BILLION chance can still occur an event #5..or 10,000 or 27 just as readily...so what is the point?

I play a LOT of poker at Full Tilt (play money)...I am consitantly on the Final table (9 out of 90 players) in Tournaments and often make it to the final 2 players. I completely ignore odds and statistics. If a card is out of the deck...there are NO odss that it will show (unless reintroduced) which throws off the odds of all the other cards in the spread as well. I guess I play Full Tilt Chaos? My wife is a 'card counter' and thinks I'm just very lucky.

So...Odds are bogus. Good Faries and Guardian Angels Rule. I don't know from what I'm speaking...it's just an interesting side thought at the moment.
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kcg5
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If you are one in a million in china, there are 1,300 people just like you.
Nobody expects the spanish inquisition!!!!!



"History will be kind to me, as I intend to write it"- Sir Winston Churchill
Doug Higley
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I noticed that. Smile
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Bill Hallahan
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Doug Higley wrote:
Quote:
If a thing is One In A Million...that means this 'thing' can happen anywhere between ONE and a MILLION. When ever it does hapen, it changes the odds...if it occurs at 600 then statistics will show it's One In 600 not a million. So of what purpose are the odds...if it happens at #10 is it still one in a million or One in 10?

The probability of something happening, which can also be expressed a bit differently as 'odds', never changes. We merely get better estimates of the true probability over time. I realize that's semantics, but that's what a statistician would say.

You could roll a fair dice, and have it come up double sixes ten times in a row, and yet the probability might still be 1/6 that any particular side would come up, and the results would converge to 1/6 times the number of rolls if the dice were rolled a millions of times.

If you keep winning, then keep doing whatever you're doing, well, as long as you aren't bottom dealing! Smile

I think there might be one way to change the odds. Teach a total newbie how to play poker, and then groan as they lay down three of a kind, full houses, straights, flushes, while they ask sincerely, "Does this win?" Smile (I'm not sure that I should use a winking graphic there!)
Humans make life so interesting. Do you know that in a universe so full of wonders, they have managed to create boredom. Quite astonishing.
- The character of ‘Death’ in the movie "Hogswatch"
Scott Compton
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Doesn't matter if its one in a million...if you are the one...does it matter if its a million or a thousand? I have lung cancer, odds of getting it...8% of people my age. Doesn't matter to me, I got it. Lies, d*mn lies, and statistics - that is what Twain said. Odds of survival? 16% for those at my stage. Does that matter? Nope! I'm gonna walk out the other side...someone has to. So in my mind, I have a great chance. I am being bulked in with quitters and the frail. Statistics are numbers...we are people.
Magic is an art. I am merely a tour guide.
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kcg5
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It's like the big board with the numbers next to a roulette table, with a list of what numbers have hit recently. It doesn't matter, if it hit 17 10 times in a row, it doesn't mean anything about the next spin. But people watch that thing all day long...
Nobody expects the spanish inquisition!!!!!



"History will be kind to me, as I intend to write it"- Sir Winston Churchill
MagicSanta
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Statistics are just a historical record which can be used, in business or sports etc, to predict an event will occur based on the cycles noted in the statistics. They have nothing to do with the odds or any of that good stuff. If you record the event occurring vs. them not occurring those are statistics. An example would be there are six sides to a die, the odds of any single number being face up is 1 in six. If you roll the dice and record the frequency numbers come up those are statistics.

I also play full tilt poker (under the name Mallini, misspelling on purpose), play money, ain't got real money!
balducci
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Can you folks in the States play online poker for real money? I thought it was illegal there.

Santa, a friend of mine here in Canuckistan plays at PokerStars. He started with play money, and won enough that he could convert it into real money at the site. He used the few dollars he earned through conversion to play some cash tables, then some tournaments, and over several months grew his bankroll to several hundred dollars. Then he cashed out.

I was very impressed by all of that.
Make America Great Again! - Trump in 2020 ... "We're a capitalistic society. I go into business, I don't make it, I go bankrupt. They're not going to bail me out. I've been on welfare and food stamps. Did anyone help me? No." - Craig T. Nelson, actor.
MagicSanta
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I'm not sure what is up with the gambling on line here. I think it had something to do with people not having to pay or something. I do know Nevada is ready and willing to license on line casinos and that IGT and others are ready to manage them.

I played PokerStars before, I like Full Tilt because it puts me in the same position of play every time, meaning I can look down at my cards with my vision I need that. I don't have the heart of a gambler so no real money on line. People play on line like lunatics with play money though, they go all in first hand with nothing and you know some idiot with a 3 7 unsuited is going to end up a straight and win and think they are geniuses when all they are are morons. At night you get some good players though, I enjoy playing poker, just don't have the aggresive nature needed.
LobowolfXXX
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Levels of sophistication: You're watching a roulette table in Vegas. Someone offers you a hundred bucks if you can correctly pick the next color that will come up. While you've been standing there, the last 10 spins have been red.

Level 1: Bet on black, because it's "due."
Level 2: Flip a coin, because the wheel has no memory, and black and red are
equally likely.
Level 3: Bet on red, because if there's anything at all to go on, it's that the
wheel appears more likely to have a red bias than a black bias.
"Torture doesn't work" lol
Guess they forgot to tell Bill Buckley.

"...as we reason and love, we are able to hope. And hope enables us to resist those things that would enslave us."
Jonathan Townsend
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Brilliant post Lobo!
Compact and helps the reader not only recognize the levels but offers some hints to moving between and topics to explore.
:)
...to all the coins I've dropped here
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Quote:
On 2009-01-16 18:38, Jonathan Townsend wrote:
Brilliant post Lobo!
Compact and helps the reader not only recognize the levels but offers some hints to moving between and topics to explore.
:)


Reminds me of my cousin's wedding...he got married at the Cal-Neva in Tahoe, and was in the casino post-reception at a roulette table with a tourist...he asked the guy how he was doing, and the guy said, "Ah, I'm no good at this game." My cousin (probably 10 drinks into the night) yelled incredulously, "Dude, it's ROULETTE! HOW CAN YOU SUCK AT ROULETTE?!"
"Torture doesn't work" lol
Guess they forgot to tell Bill Buckley.

"...as we reason and love, we are able to hope. And hope enables us to resist those things that would enslave us."
MagicSanta
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Ha! I love the Cal Neva, when I pee pee there I think ol' Frank Sinatra may have used the same urinal. There are six of 'em so statistically....
Doug Higley
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Santa...see you on Full Tilt some time. I play as ******** and formerly as ******** but the Wife uses ********** exclusively these days. I play from about 2am till about maybe 9am.

I too get a kick out of the morons and their knee jerk All In...however...I'll start with a low 1st bet BUT if I have a decent couple of cards I'll go in IF somebody else pulls the trigger...hell it's their money who cares! Smile That first hand many times gives me the jump I need to run to the final table if I'm playing against good players. I only play the Tournaments so if you do, I'll look for ya.
Lori just won a Tournament yesterday...sure is fun. Love the game. Makes staying up all night worthwhile. Play money makes it possible. Smile The Wife can easily (and has) play 24 hours straight with out stop. Not that much of a fanatic but I'm close.
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S2000magician
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Quote:
On 2009-01-16 17:43, kcg5 wrote:
It's like the big board with the numbers next to a roulette table, with a list of what numbers have hit recently. It doesn't matter, if it hit 17 10 times in a row, it doesn't mean anything about the next spin. But people watch that thing all day long...

If the wheel's fair it doesn't mean anything.

If the wheel's not fair, it's prima facie evidence that it's biased toward hitting 17.

If I were a bettin' man and I saw that it had hit 17 ten times in a row, I'd bet heavily on 17 for the eleventh spin of the wheel.

Of course, if it hitting 17 ten times were under the control of a nefarious croupier, who may see fit to thwart me when I bet on the eleventh spin . . . .


Quote:
On 2009-01-16 18:31, LobowolfXXX wrote:
Levels of sophistication: You're watching a roulette table in Vegas. Someone offers you a hundred bucks if you can correctly pick the next color that will come up. While you've been standing there, the last 10 spins have been red.

Level 1: Bet on black, because it's "due."
Level 2: Flip a coin, because the wheel has no memory, and black and red are
equally likely.
Level 3: Bet on red, because if there's anything at all to go on, it's that the
wheel appears more likely to have a red bias than a black bias.

Amen!

A few years ago I was listening to KPCC (the local NPR station) as I was on my way to work; two people were discussing the exam that high school students in California will (eventually) have to take to graduate. One said that she was going to read one of the questions to see if the other could answer it correctly. She read:

Mary tosses a coin five times. All five times it lands heads. On the sixth toss, what is the theoretical probability of it landing tails? [Emphasis added.]

He answered: Fifty percent.

She said: You're right!

I said, "That's the stupidest thing I've ever heard!"

First, I have no idea what the word "theoretical" means in that question. To what theory is the author referring? (My guess is that he had no particular theory in mind.) The only one that makes sense to me is a corollary to Bayes' Theorem that states that in the absence of evidence to the contrary, congruent outcomes should be assigned equal probabilities. That would suggest that "heads" and "tails" - congruent outcomes - should each have a probability of 50%.

However, note the premise of that corollary: in the absence of evidence to the contrary. That doesn't apply here: there's lots of evidence to the contrary: five heads in a row! (For those of you who think that five heads in a row isn't much evidence, imagine that she'd said "ten times", or "one hundred times", or "ten thousand times"; the specific number five surely isn't the point of the question.)

What's more disturbing is that the answer to the question requires the student to recall some theoretical (there's that word again!) result from a book, while ignoring the evidence that's staring him in the face.

I e-mailed KPCC as soon as I got to work.

They didn't reply.

Sigh.
MagicSanta
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Doug, I'll keep an eye out for ************ and **************.
LobowolfXXX
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Quote:
On 2009-01-16 20:04, S2000magician wrote:
Quote:
On 2009-01-16 18:31, LobowolfXXX wrote:
Levels of sophistication: You're watching a roulette table in Vegas. Someone offers you a hundred bucks if you can correctly pick the next color that will come up. While you've been standing there, the last 10 spins have been red.

Level 1: Bet on black, because it's "due."
Level 2: Flip a coin, because the wheel has no memory, and black and red are
equally likely.
Level 3: Bet on red, because if there's anything at all to go on, it's that the
wheel appears more likely to have a red bias than a black bias.

Amen!

A few years ago I was listening to KPCC (the local NPR station) as I was on my way to work; two people were discussing the exam that high school students in California will (eventually) have to take to graduate. One said that she was going to read one of the questions to see if the other could answer it correctly. She read:

Mary tosses a coin five times. All five times it lands heads. On the sixth toss, what is the theoretical probability of it landing tails? [Emphasis added.]

He answered: Fifty percent.

She said: You're right!

I said, "That's the stupidest thing I've ever heard!"

First, I have no idea what the word "theoretical" means in that question. To what theory is the author referring? (My guess is that he had no particular theory in mind.) The only one that makes sense to me is a corollary to Bayes' Theorem that states that in the absence of evidence to the contrary, congruent outcomes should be assigned equal probabilities. That would suggest that "heads" and "tails" - congruent outcomes - should each have a probability of 50%.

However, note the premise of that corollary: in the absence of evidence to the contrary. That doesn't apply here: there's lots of evidence to the contrary: five heads in a row! (For those of you who think that five heads in a row isn't much evidence, imagine that she'd said "ten times", or "one hundred times", or "ten thousand times"; the specific number five surely isn't the point of the question.)

What's more disturbing is that the answer to the question requires the student to recall some theoretical (there's that word again!) result from a book, while ignoring the evidence that's staring him in the face.

I e-mailed KPCC as soon as I got to work.

They didn't reply.

Sigh.


We know ONE thing...it sure as hell ain't a 2-tailed coin.
"Torture doesn't work" lol
Guess they forgot to tell Bill Buckley.

"...as we reason and love, we are able to hope. And hope enables us to resist those things that would enslave us."
S2000magician
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Quote:
On 2009-01-16 20:10, LobowolfXXX wrote:
We know ONE thing...it sure as hell ain't a 2-tailed coin.

And that's about the only thing we know.
Doug Higley
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Santa...I thought I was playing ******** last night Smile Anyone who pays attention will know the names we play under when they run into them.
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Magnus Eisengrim
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Quote:
On 2009-01-16 20:11, S2000magician wrote:
Quote:
On 2009-01-16 20:10, LobowolfXXX wrote:
We know ONE thing...it sure as hell ain't a 2-tailed coin.

And that's about the only thing we know.

And that you lacked charity. I agree with your answer, but we both know what the announcer meant. It was implicit that the coin was fair, and that the tosses were random. I hope you never see Rosencrantz and Guildenstern are Dead; you'd make the opening scene intolerable. Smile

John
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats
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