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Mr. Mystoffelees Inner circle I haven't changed anyone's opinion in 3623 Posts |
Having always been fascinated by the Titanic disaster, I have recently ordered "Whitestar".
As part of my patter, I want to discuss the probaility of being on the Titanic, either for those living at the time, or better yet, all who have ever lived. I am getting lost conceptually as to whether I need to include the probability of being born, as well as whether to factor nationality, wealth, timing, etc. Or, is it just a straight-line calculation of percentage of total population? Also, should I include the "ifs": had been delayed had heeded ice warnings had been on a slightly differemt course had been windy had moonlight etc. etc. Any thoughts? (Beyond that I should just make it up!) Jim
Also known, when doing rope magic, as "Cordini"
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WilburrUK Veteran user 389 Posts |
Apart from the possibility of ever being born (you're on your own with that one, how many peoeple have never been born?) I belive that just a straight ratio will do
(Number of people on the titanic / total number of humans) this automatically copes with everything else, in the same way that if you want to express the chance that a randomly drawn card will be a king you just do total number of kings / total number of cards you don't need to worry about the chances of it being a picture card, or a red card etc. |
Mr. Mystoffelees Inner circle I haven't changed anyone's opinion in 3623 Posts |
O.K., setting aside "probability of being born" (even though I have seen that quoted), would it really be accurate to do a straight percentage of all the people on earth in 1912?
For example, many people would not have the finances, time or reason for such a journey. Others, who did, were perhaps booked on the return because they were already in the USA and wanted to go to England. Some were in the hospital, or in prison, etc. Well, as they say about statistics... Thanks for the response! Jim
Also known, when doing rope magic, as "Cordini"
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