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Nathan Pain Inner circle iowa 2825 Posts |
The fellow had a chance to choose his throw...he could have selected THH...and you choose TTH...
Thanks to those of you speaking on the coin toss...I was just getting ready to ask if any of you had more info...and here it was just waiting for me... Nathan
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charlesgmorgan Regular user 199 Posts |
Quote:
On 2009-09-16 15:35, balducci wrote: Well, not quite ..... The Penney Ante game is not what I described. Now, it is possible that what I described is NOT what Derren was doing. I found it hard to tell from the show. Frankly, I thought he was skirting close to the Penney game as misdirection. My claim is simply that if you keep track of a long run, checking for the two sequences, you will find that they occur with equal frequency. In the routine I described, a coin is tossed and one keeps track of the running sequence. A point is scored every time one of the target sequences shows up. If that is the game you are playing, there is no advantage whatsoever to either player. Again, I invite you to just try it. In the Penney game, the two folks begin tossing coins until one of them hits their target sequence, and that person is the winner. As soon as one party hits their target sequence, a win is declared and they may start over on a new game. That is not what I described. What is "not transitive" about those games is the conditional probabilities ... because the antecedent conditions are changing. If Derren was actually playing the Penney game, then fair enough ... his "explanation" is fine. It just was not clear to me that is what he was doing. And perhaps it was not clear to others who saw it. Cheers .... Charles |
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kinesis Inner circle Scotland, surrounded by 2708 Posts |
Quote:
On 2009-09-16 13:42, ku7uk3 wrote: Am I missing something hidden deep within this post????? Derren is a magician the public know that, magicians know that, Derren's pet parrot knows that. As a magician he can't tell the public how he really did it. He's not obliged to tell fellow magicians how he did it, his parrot doesn't care how he did it. If he does tell the public then magicians know it's a lie, but, because he's a magician he HAS to lie otherwise he'll be breaking the magician's code of secrecy, designed to protect our art. He does this constantly in all his programs, he offers pseudo-explanations. ku7uk3, Derren offered an explanation to the public with his collective thought system and also admitted verbally that it was a trick, what did you expect from him. Help me understand your argument so that I can give you my take on it. |
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IAIN Eternal Order england 18807 Posts |
Ultimately - does it matter?! what do some of you wanna do? go out and perform this exact same thing?
only for people to say "oh yeah - did you see derren do it? he beat the BBCs lottery machine!" let it lie, and just enjoy the show(s)...for my sanity's sake if nothing else...
I've asked to be banned
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Colin Inner circle Las Vegas 1355 Posts |
... what if he actually did it?
I think if people knew he could do it, he'd have to make it look a bit 'fake' so people didn't just kidnap him and make him predict the right numbers for them. I think he's making you think that he cheated. He's a genius! Col.
Check out Psych-Artist.com now for free essays and other resources.
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Alex The Magician New user Austria 14 Posts |
"Derren is a magician the public know that..." (wrote kinesis)
"The Magic Circle - of which Brown is not a member - was also cautious about lifting the cloak of secrecy. Jack Delvin, its new president, said Brown had been given the opportunity to join "but he says he is not a magician and doesn't use magic tricks"." http://www.guardian.co.uk/culture/2009/s......-daniels But Mr.Derren`s wiki site we can read: "...is an English magician, illusionist, mentalist, painter and sceptic..." http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Derren_Brown So, there is conflict in that level also... Deep Impact...
Magically Yours...,
______________________ "Alex", S.H. |
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IAIN Eternal Order england 18807 Posts |
Alex - if I hadnt have gone onto your site just now, I'd have sworn you had just started in magic and mentalism...
I've asked to be banned
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Alex The Magician New user Austria 14 Posts |
Quote:
On 2009-09-16 18:19, IAIN wrote: No, I started before "Yesterday"
Magically Yours...,
______________________ "Alex", S.H. |
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balducci Loyal user Canada 227 Posts |
Quote:
On 2009-09-16 16:52, charlesgmorgan wrote: I admit I was a little confused by your description ... given what you said now about how you ran your simulation, yes, the target sequences would be equally likely. However, in Derren's show, they were playing Penney Ante. I just looked at the clip again to make sure. Now that they were playing Penney Ante was NOT entirely clear from Derren's verbal description of the game. On tape, he did not appear to explicitly state whether or not a new game started every time a player won a point. However, if you observed the second white board behind the second player (the black woman), it was clear that they were tracking the sequences and starting a new game on a new line after every 'win'. They listed the sequences observed, including: THTTHH/ HTTTTHH/ HHTHTHTHTHH/ HTTHH/ and so on. So it was Penney Ante, but perhaps that was not clear to most viewers.
Make America Great Again! - Trump in 2020 ... "We're a capitalistic society. I go into business, I don't make it, I go bankrupt. They're not going to bail me out. I've been on welfare and food stamps. Did anyone help me? No." - Craig T. Nelson, actor.
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Nathan Pain Inner circle iowa 2825 Posts |
A lot of you are acting like you sent Derren 60$ for his new instructional DVD, "How To Win The Lottery"...you didn't...he owes you nothing...and nothing may be what you received...
...
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Caliban Special user 727 Posts |
Quote:
On 2009-09-16 14:21, pearljamjeff wrote: But you can't open your hand four weeks later. Alternative footage from a different camera is going to prove nothing now because they've had plenty of time to film it since the draw. Another reason why it won't happen is that most of the public have accepted the camera trick theory too - probably even more so than magicians. So if Derren pulls a twist that makes the magicians who believe it was a camera trick look ridiculous, as you seem to hope he will, it will make a large section of the general public - Derren's audience - look ridiculous too. International performers with successful televison careers and 200,000 tour tickets to sell don't tend to pull stunts designed to make the general public look stupid. |
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IAIN Eternal Order england 18807 Posts |
My pseudo-psychic vibes are telling me, there will be a profound message within the finale of his shows...
after twenty pages of this, could we just agree that he's got you all talking and just leave it at that?
I've asked to be banned
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balducci Loyal user Canada 227 Posts |
Quote:
On 2009-09-16 19:26, IAIN wrote: As the discussion is still of interest to so many, why shut it down? Besides, the main discussion has taken some interesting and related diversions over these many pages.
Make America Great Again! - Trump in 2020 ... "We're a capitalistic society. I go into business, I don't make it, I go bankrupt. They're not going to bail me out. I've been on welfare and food stamps. Did anyone help me? No." - Craig T. Nelson, actor.
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lejon Special user 721 Posts |
Quote:
On 2009-09-16 18:01, kinesis wrote: I tried Kinesis. I don't get it either. he contradicts himself. and I don't mean this in a bad way or in an insultig way. that's just waht I understand. |
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charlesgmorgan Regular user 199 Posts |
Well, I would like to direct everyone to take a look at the group "predictions" just before the final lottery one.
On the Friday show, there were 3 attempts to use "Wisdom of the Crowds" (WOTC) to predict a lottery outcome, just before the final prediction. On the first attempt, folks just stared at the previous numbers and made guesses. The guesses were tallied and averaged. The group then went out and bought tickets for those numbers. On the day of the lottery, they got only 1 number right. On the second attempt, folks again made guesses. But the time at which the guesses were made was just before the lottery, so no one could rush out and get a ticket. Six people from the group collected the numbers called out by the group members. They all watched the lottery live on TV. Then the six members each averaged the guesses they had previously written down. The group got 3 out of the 6 numbers from the lottery. I do not see that "split screen" or any other camera effects could have anything to do with this outcome. The guesses were called out by the participants and written down before the draw. The calculations with those numbers were done immediatedly after the draw by the 6 individuals who had collected the guesses. So, I suppose it is possible that stooges were used to do at least some of the calculations. But that would be a serious departure from DB's past claims to the contrary. On the third attempt, there was some sort of bonding exercise and a bunch of guff about "automatic writing". The procedure was similar to the previous attempt. Individuals wrote down their guesses. But this time one person (Tyler) collected them all. The group watched the lottery, and then Tyler did the calculations. In this case, they got 4 correct. Again, I do not see that split screen or other camera effects could have had anything to do with the result. I suppose Tyler could have been a stooge, but as before, that would be a serious departure from DB's past claims. By the way, I thought the suggestion that greed or the emotional excitement of winning might color one's ability to perceive the "hidden pattern" was a brilliant excuse to not do the calculations before the lottery results were announced. So, the most obvious, the simplest technique here is the employment of stooges. (NOTE: I am NOT claiming DB did use stooges ... just that the use of stooges would work and is an obvious method.) Why isn't everyone lambasting DB for using stooges??? Cheers ...... Charles |
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Chris H Inner circle Melbourne, Australia 1364 Posts |
Quote:
On 2009-09-16 18:01, kinesis wrote: Quote:
On 2009-09-16 19:05, Nathan Pain wrote: I think this is the heart of the issue with some of the "sour grapes" we're experiencing. Many members of the magic community were utterly baffled by this effect, and desperately wanted to know how it was done. They thought they'd struck gold when Derren said he was going to tell them how he did it, and then he tricked them again. Another thought regarding the whole camera trick theory. I've watched the video a couple of times and the ball does indeed appear to rise up slightly. But if that were the moment that the switch was made from pre-recorded footage to live footage, then theoretically there shouldn't be any "movement" at all. It should just jump from one spot to the other, as if there were a few frames missing in between. Just a thought... Cheers, Chris |
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Alex The Magician New user Austria 14 Posts |
As I wrote earlier, that show is the greatest misdirection in many levels...
"The Magic Circle - of which Brown is not a member - was also cautious about lifting the cloak of secrecy. Jack Delvin, its new president, said Brown had been given the opportunity to join "but he says he is not a magician and doesn't use magic tricks"." http://www.guardian.co.uk/culture/2009/s......-daniels "and doesn't use magic tricks"-I believe that surely, as I wrote it earlier..., but the main trick is that everything is looks like as different tricks, but I think absolutely not! The show is historical! D.B just acted, played a show like he using his (several)tricks... Its unbelievable, but true! To direct, create that kind of show/s in a magic fields need a really creative mind!
Magically Yours...,
______________________ "Alex", S.H. |
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kalsolar New user 51 Posts |
Quote from Guerrilla Magic:
"Another thought regarding the whole camera trick theory. I've watched the video a couple of times and the ball does indeed appear to rise up slightly. But if that were the moment that the switch was made from pre-recorded footage to live footage, then theoretically there shouldn't be any "movement" at all. It should just jump from one spot to the other, as if there were a few frames missing in between. Just a thought..." Cheers, Chris [/quote] NOT at all Chris...just to play safe the shots would be faded through each other until the tranistion from one image to the next is complete..not suddenly cut from one to the next. THAT is why the ball appears to rise. |
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Chris H Inner circle Melbourne, Australia 1364 Posts |
Quote:
On 2009-09-16 22:01, kalsolar wrote: The ball does appear to move over a short period of time. According to the camera trick theorists, this is proof positive that a change in footage occurred. However they don't explain the actual movement in between the balls start and end position, something that a cross fade between two pieces of footage wouldn't cause. You would actually need a piece of transitional footage that showed the ball rising to place in between the "pre-recorded" bit and the "live" bit. A cross fade would show the "pre-recorded ball" begin to disappear (or fade out) slowly and the "live ball" begin to appear (fade in) in its final position. In my experience, this technique would not provide the illusion of movement. Cheers, Chris |
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kinesis Inner circle Scotland, surrounded by 2708 Posts |
Ya know I explained that ball movement about 15 pages ago and it's got nothing to do with split screen.
In catching up on a lot of posts I think there have been one or two posts that really made sense. For me, I'd love to know how Derren REALLY did it. But many magicians have their pet effects that they never give away. I'm used to that. So if Derren never reveals the true method then so be it, I'm not going to loose any sleep on it. It was mentioned earlier, It was Nathan P that said Derren owes us nothing. Soooo true. He's flown the flag for magic and mentalism for a good few years now and I know my business has benefitted from it. What he does with his magic career is his choice, we don't have a say in the matter. Bottom line, apart from the production staff, no-one knows for sure how DB did what he did, so why waste all this energy on arguing over guesses. The lottery presentation is finished, why !@#$% about what he said or didn't say, what he claimed or didn't claim, we can't change it, it's history. I think DB has a kicker finish lined up for the end of the series, with DB there's always a twist. I'm gonna sit back, enjoy The Events, and avoid The Café, LOL Derek |
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