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NJJ
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No. 92 - that was what we discussed earlier (in the first post, in fact)

Standard casino procedure is to turn over the right. The mexican turnover can achieve the illusion of this occurring creating an apparently uniform action through the game.

However, Mr Z. suggests other moves might be better. I'd be interested to know why.
JasonEngland
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Quote:
On 2010-04-26 06:27, Nicholas J. Johnson wrote:
Oh well - It would have been nice if he was here.

I was discussing the idea of the 'average' player with a dealer (who is also a computer science student) the other night who suggested that you could analyse the behaviour of a large sample of players over time to determine a kind of 'average strategy'. i.e. a table that shows what a player is most likely to do when face with a particular hand.

Thanks Jason


It's been done. Peter Griffin did it years ago if I remember correctly. If you only wanted to know the disadvantage the "average player" faced, you only need to look at how much the games are making over time. To determine an actual "average strategy", then you would need to actually watch the individual decisions themselves. As I said, I believe Griffin did exactly that years ago and published his results in his Theory of Blackjack.

Jason
Eternal damnation awaits anyone who questions God's unconditional love. --Bill Hicks
NJJ
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Great! I'll order that book once I've worked my way through Beat the Dealer and the rest of Casino Cheating.

I imagine casinos have made similar observations and used the data in making changes to the game.

This is from another forum I visit from a discussion of the effects of 'average statergy' against the selective upcard.

Quote:
I calculated that optimal play against a dealer who selected a ten for an up card whenever possible results in a house edge of 1.91% (for 8 decks, S17, rs3). I get these standing numbers for dealer up cards: 13 (vs 5,7,8); 14 (vs 3,4,6,9); 15 (vs 2,10); and 17 (vs 17).

So, the closer the player's strategy happened to be to these numbers, the lower the house edge. For example, if the player happened to always stand on hard 15, the edge would be 2.73%.

However, I calculated a higher house edge than did the author for playing BS against this type of cheating dealer. I got an edge of 3.46% (not 2.76%).
JasonEngland
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I just realized that my 6 - 10% comment against "average" players from earlier is too strong for just "regular" selective upcard play. The 6 - 10% number comes from a selective upcard combined with an anchor play (something that would be very easy if the cards were marked for the selective upcard play).

The regular selective upcard play is probably closer to 4 or 5%, maybe 6% if the "average Joe" player is especially unlucky and makes really bad choices.

Jason
Eternal damnation awaits anyone who questions God's unconditional love. --Bill Hicks
NJJ
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Totally- if you've got a ten as the up card AND the anchor is taken the hit on the bad cards then the rest of the table don't stand a chance.
Solinas
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It was mentioned in Blackjack Forum, December 1988 on page 8. I don't have my copy handy, so I can't look it up.

I'd be really interested if someone who has a copy could let us know who wrote the article.


Solinas
JasonEngland
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Solinas

I don't know who you think you are barging in here quizzing people like this, but I'm happy to knock this one out of the park for you.

The article in question was written by none other than the Bishop himself. The name of the article, which incidentally is the cover article for that issue, is "Phast Phun in Phoenix." The brief mention appears towards the top of the second column on the aforementioned p. 8.

J

PS: I was always partial to the article on p. 12 of the December, 1981 issue!
Eternal damnation awaits anyone who questions God's unconditional love. --Bill Hicks
NJJ
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I believe Steve Forte mentions it in a 1991 issue as well.

But the best description I have found is in the Zender book. (which is a great read by the way)
tommy
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The Card Counter’s Guide to Casino Surveillance Authored by Cellini (pseudonym). Perhaps.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
JasonEngland
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NIcholas,

He does, briefly. It's in the March, 1991 issue in an article called "Dangerous Shoes."

Jason
Eternal damnation awaits anyone who questions God's unconditional love. --Bill Hicks
oOMagiiCOo
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I don't really see the point in this as it could not be used as a cheating method in a controlled game and surely it would be easier to just mark every card?
JasonEngland
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Hey oOMagliCOo,

1. Who said anything about a "controlled game?" We're talking about a cheating methodology that has been used in the past, under conditions available in the past, not necessarily about a move that would fly past surveillance in a modern casino.

2. Given the proper conditions, this is an easy way for a non-skilled dealer to make use of marked cards in blackjack. You can teach a dealer the selective upcard in about as long as it takes to learn to read the marks. Teaching them to deal seconds using the marks takes months and is riskier.*

3. Given that blackjack is essentially a game of high cards and low cards, marking only the 10s and Aces is virtually the same as marking the whole deck. It's called a "two way combination" and is very strong, given that the selective upcard is the tool of choice.

Jason

*There are other ways for a dealer to use marked cards that don't involve physical skill, but this discussion is about the selective upcard technique.
Eternal damnation awaits anyone who questions God's unconditional love. --Bill Hicks
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