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Philemon Vanderbeck
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Leave it to Rod Serling to have foreseen a similar situation:

http://www.imdb.com/video/cbs/vi2375550745/

"What You Need" from "The Twilight Zone."
Professor Philemon Vanderbeck
That Creepy Magician
"I use my sixth sense to create the illusion of possessing the other five."
Rocketeer
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A couple of people here said that insight might want to find out what the point spread is and just follow that. Keep in mind that bookmakers have no interest in who wins or loses a game and the spread is not a prediction. At least that's the way bookmaking works here in the US.

To win $10 you have to bet $11. That extra buck is called the vigorish or simply the vig. It is how the bookmaker makes his money. Bookmakers manipulate the spread so as to influence bettors. Up until game time the odds will fluctuate with the pattern of the betting as the bookie strives to achieve his goal: To be as close as he possibly can to having the amount of money bet on each team to be exactly the same. This assures him he will not have to pay out any money from his own reserves, as he will pay the winners out of the moneys he collects from the losers minus, of course, the vig.

Having said all that one could still make the case that since the bookie responds to the way people are betting, the spread could be predictive. In fact, there's a whole book on the subject: The Wisdom of Crowds" by James Surowiecki.

In the book the (true) story is told of a county fair that took place in England in 1906. There was a contest to guess the weight of an ox after it was slaughtered and dressed. The winner got to keep the ox. Its weight ended up being 1,197 pounds.

After the contest was over, Francis Galton, a scientist, asked for and received all of the voting tickets. He averaged them up. Although individual guesses were all over the place, the average of all guesses was 1,198 pounds, off by only a single pound.

So now you have both sides of the argument about whether or not relying on the odds is likely to give you an accurate answer for your would be client.

I don't think I've given you any useful advice. I'm just fascinated by this sort of thing.
I'm selling my hardcover autographed limited edition copy of Jerome Finley's "Thought Veil"

PM me for info.
muse
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It may not be of direct use (it's many months since I was last asked to guess the weight of an ox) but yes, it is fascinating.

As to the original post, the answer was played out on the Disney Channel's show 'That's So Raven'. (No, I don't watch it, but my son used to.) In it, as I recall, Eddie has temporary powers, and an older kid asks him to give him the winner of a horse race. To be a pal, Eddie does so, and it of course wins. The older kid turns out to be a gang member (well, a Disney take on one at least) who correctly works out that if he was able to make some extra money on a single race, he'd be able to clean up if he knew ALL the next day's race results and could put on an accumulator bet. So if you accept the scriptwriting of children's TV as any sort of guide to living your life, take note.
David Alexander
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So, Mike, you take his money, you give him a number and you're close. Do you think this would be the last you'd see of him?

From what you describe he's not quite right in the head. If you want people like that in your life, take his money and give him what he wants. If you're right, you'll never be rid of him.

If you're wrong you may find that he'll behave erratically and, possibly, violently, if he loses a lot of money and/or thinks he’s been cheated.

The only way for you to “win” in this situation is to keep this guy at arm’s length and have no relationship with him. Otherwise you’re asking for lots of trouble.
insight
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Thanks, Muse. The difference, however, between the Disney episode and my current reality is that I do not have temporary powers. In "That's So Raven", the older kid asks with his true belief that there is a power. In my situation, I'm being asked with his true belief that what I do is only magic. Crazy as it seems, even then, I'm being asked. Hence, the dilemna...

Regards,
Mike
IAIN
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Its an interesting plight - but in reality, meh...just say no and leave it...

whether he's just a bit stupid, a skeptic, or anything else...its not worth the hassle...especially if he's not going to book you...tell him to spend his $500 on a therapist...
I've asked to be banned
Eshla
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People here are rather hypocritical in my opinion, but that's not just their fault, I'm probably to blame too. I imagine if this guys had offered £10,000 instead of $500 then a lot of us would have taken it; sod the ethics or worries Smile


Just as an interesting thought test; ask yourself if you would do it for $500, or $1000, or $5000!?

Everyone has their price Smile
I come from the future to culture you poor sods with fire.
IAIN
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That's not being hypocritical though is it...its just whether having that guy bothering you is worth the 300 quid or so...and that amount should be negligable if you want to be seen as a certain type of mentalist...

but I do agree - everyone does have their price...
I've asked to be banned
Simon (Ted) Edwards
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Tom, as the price rises so does your responsibility and,if you don't care about that, the potential for the involvement of organised crime. this should make higher prices less, not more, attractive. I investigate such things professionally so I know more about this subject than about almost anything else. Unfair gambling attracts gangsters. That's something you never want to do.
lejon
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Just stay away ,

easy money is never easy.
Simon (Ted) Edwards
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Quote:
On 2010-05-29 18:37, lejon wrote:
Just stay away ,

easy money is never easy.


:thumbsup:
Dr. Eamon
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--------eXtrementalism--------......IT'S ALL IN YOUR MIND.....
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Quote:
On 2010-05-29 18:46, Ted wrote:
Quote:
On 2010-05-29 18:37, lejon wrote:
Just stay away ,

easy money is never easy.


:thumbsup:
That´s it...
TonyB2009
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I would back away, because he is expecting something you know you can't give him.

Having said that I once did the stars for a local newspaper for a season, and I also included a prediction each week. Throughout an entire season I got the result right of every football game the local team played in, with just one mistake. It got me national publicity.

Here's my secret. I asked the sports editor who was going to win, and went with his expert opinion every week.
Oyama
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I say move on.
"it's better to live one day as a lion, than a thousand years as a lamb."
Dr Spektor
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1) Like they say - those who believe don't care about disclaimers

2) Remember what happened to the Witches in the middle ages and later in Salem

3) Avoid fanatics

4) $500 is not a lot for what is being asked for. Plus, if you are performing as a psychic, you should be able to make that at a party... which leads me to the following:

A) RUN LIKE HECK

OR

B) Examine your performance character and what you claim you can do. If you are really going full psychic - you might go for it. I have a feeling though based on the fact you are telling him you are an illusionist / trickster, you either are not doing that style of thing or you having yet really developed your character's projections to the world.

If you were the psychic, you'd be able to say many things:

i) My abilities don't work that way. In fact, whenever someone has tried to have me do something like that... the karmic balancing act occurred... sort of like the monkey's paw... (give grusome examples)

ii) $500? Why would I take $500 when I can use my powers to get that myself. I do find materialism a useless thing to follow. Sorry, money does not interest me for what you ask.

iii) Following on above if you are a mysterious psychic being... "... but I might consider it for your soul...." OR "... or I need you to do 3 things for a year before I consider you ready to understand the secrets I will impart. The first is to be kind to someone less fortunate than you - everyd day...etc."


But really, I would just tell him, based on what you have already said to him "Man, you sound like you need some professional help. You may have a gambling problem. That is what my powers are telling me. Really. Please get help."

Really.
"They are lean and athirst!!!!"
muse
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Quote:
On 2010-05-29 17:57, insight wrote:
Thanks, Muse. The difference, however, between the Disney episode and my current reality is that I do not have temporary powers. In "That's So Raven", the older kid asks with his true belief that there is a power. In my situation, I'm being asked with his true belief that what I do is only magic. Crazy as it seems, even then, I'm being asked. Hence, the dilemna...



Then maybe the Daffy Duck storyline where the gangster wants him to lay a golden egg might be a better guide in this case?
insight
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So I think the general consensus here is that I should ignore him, but what I found interesting is that most think I should ignore him because of the potential risk rather than a belief that charging is morally wrong. Am I correct in my interpretation of your belief?
Steve_Mollett
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Eh, so I've made
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Is that question intended as a 'ticking parcel?'
Author of: GARROTE ESCAPES
The absurd is the essential concept and the first truth.
- Albert Camus
lejon
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Yes youre right

as eshla said, its all about 500$. I would run away.

Now for 10000$ it would change things?

I don't think there is anything morally wrong in respecting the law of offer and demand.

he wants it, you specified EXACTLY what is the product, he still want it. and you weighted the risk/gain ratio. then go for it.


I just think the risk/gain ratio is just too small here.

but that's for you to asseess..
Tony Razzano
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Interesting thread. A couple of things.

First, this could be a sting.

Second, is it ethical? I think not.

This has happened to me more than once. (Super Bowl, Kentucky Derby, Etc). I never take the money. What I tell them is, " Look, as you have seen, I am very accurate most of the time. But if in this case its one of the times I am not, you are out the money you would have paid me and whatever you bet. Its too much of a chance and I won't take the responsibility."

Then they can ask all they want. I always refuse.
Best regards,
<BR>Tony Razzano, Past President, PEA
Winner of the PEA"s Bascom Jones and Bob Haines Awards
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