I think the guy doesn't actually believe your incessant disclaimers. Perhaps he thinks you just say you don't have special powers to put people off. So he would use your prediction to bet and then be angry when he didn't win. And if he did win it would be even worse for you because his belief in your powers would be solidified and this guy would really be a monkey on your back.

On the other hand, gamblers often use any random event as the basis on which to bet. For instance, a guy misses flight 207 to somewhere and the plane crashes with no survivors. Then the next day he bets heavily on the number 207 in the numbers racket.

Ok, time for another one of my irrelevant tales:

There was an old scam back when horse racing was much more popular than it is nowadays. It takes an investment but it pays off handsomely.

The con man buys a mailing list of 10,000 known gamblers. He mails them a prediction of which horse will win a certain race (for simplicity let's this race and all subsequent races involve ten horses.)

Of course you can probably figure out what he does, he sends a different horse to every 1,000 people so he's guaranteed to give the correct prediction to 1,000 people.

He repeats the scam with the "winning" 1,000. After that he has 100 people who have seen him call two races in a row. The first two picks were free, This one he charges, say $200 for. If half the people take him up on the offer he makes $10,000.

After this race there will be 10 people who have seen him be right three times in a row, and remember, they have all made money with this guy, whether they started to bet from the beginning or just paid for the third prediction.

So he charges them $1,000 apiece for his next prediction. At this point everyone might take him up on the offer. If they started betting from the beginning they may have already made a lot of money with the guy. If everybody bites he makes another $10,000. And he ends up with one last mark who practically thinks this guy is a god. He sells him his next prediction for whatever the mark will pay for it. Let's say $2,000. Now he's done and is never heard from again (unless the mark wins, in which case he can go one or two more times.

Result: He's made, in this example, at least $22,000 minus the cost of list rental, envelopes, paper, printing and postage.

Not a bad take for a few days (spread out over a period of weeks) of dishonest work.

We now return you to our regular thread, already in progress...

My advice don't
when I was working for tv I predicted the world championship soccer
and found out that people are willing to risk everything they have.
There ar really obsesed people on this plannet who are ready to believe anything
these people can be dangoures and I think its part of our job to protect these people against themself
so again don't tell or sell them a prediction
easy money is never easy you will sleep much beter that way!!

I thought that it was almost without doubt that making the prediction was morally wrong. Rather than getting into the theoretical I imagined it would be more interesting to discuss the practical issues - such as becoming vulnerable to gangsters if you succeed, or a psycho if you don't.

I think that about covers it. :o) Here's another thought, though maybe even more controversial. A magician friend once remarked that someone offered him $100 to teach him a trick that fascinated him (one that my friend performed in a restaurant). So, how might that fit the scenario? I’m glad you asked.

Tell your friend that you will teach him the effect that so amazed him for the $500.00. That way he will know beyond doubt that you were, indeed just performing a trick. Explain that, “ALL” he is getting for the $500 is a lesson in how that effect was performed and that you will “GIVE” him a wild guess about the score for free... emphasis on “wild guess.”

I’m quite sure this will not sit comfortably with other performers, but it’s offered as just another option, one in which you get the $500 from a guy who claims he knows it’s only a trick anyway. For those opposed, ask the question that Eshla posited… what about $1000 or $5000. Just thinking out loud. :o)

Readings - you don't have to predict the future doing readings. If you take the time to learn what readings are about, i.e. as a psychic would present an oraclular reading versus a mentalist/mental magician would - it is a world of difference.

I do readings all the time - and I never predict the future - Elsha - I will give you a a tip the same as I have said here many times - the true roots of mentalism come from spiritualism and their ilk and shamans and the like - not theatrical magic.

Back to the topic: I'd predict based on what was said, to tell him he will potentially run into major difficulties in finances if he bases his investments on non-evidence based or informed best practices of economics. If you think this is a supernatural prediction - eiiiiiiieeeeiii

I'm often asked for how I did it and offered $100 for an explanation when I do my Invisible Deck routine (really). I don't take it - because the purpose of presenting mystery entertainment is getting someone into the mindset of "not knowing" that you know you hit your goal. For those who seem serious, want to learn the art more than just wanted the explanation to set their worlds back in order, I tell them something to the effect that they should seek a magic shop and study - for $100 and dedicated study to the craft, they would not only be able to achieve the mystic effect I did, but have access to becoming adept at many miracles. 99% of the people I say that to never follow up. 1% who do and come back and show me they took the time to attempt learning mystery art effects, well, now I have ushered in a new person into our art.

Back from another thread - you sell your secret even for $1000 while being hired as entertainment at an event - likely the person who sell it to tells everyone "HEY ITS A GIMMICKED DECK - HE'S A PHONEYYYYY PHONEEYYYYY (Family guy episode). $1000 will not make up for it.

http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?id=293

and

http://www.humanism.org.uk/campaigns/rel......atistics

Like I occasionally say in my act, "I read minds, I don't improve them."

:)

While I agree with your basic premise, there are numerous instances when exceptions are warranted. I taught magic in the back of my magic shop, and it paid a lot less than five hundred bucks. It’s impossible to know if the student is 100% interested in the art or in the secrets only.

But that’s a moot point; since the circumstances in this thread dictate that the person is NOT interested in the art, or in learning the trick at all. Rather, he is just interested in getting that sports prediction. The suggestion provided merely another option of appeasing the guy, making a quick $500, and pre-empting any argument he might raise later. After all, “I showed you that it was simply a trick. The $500 was for the lesson, not the prediction.”

I’m sure there is a thread somewhere on the Café that addresses the idea of prostituting ourselves by selling our very stock-in-trade for a quick buck. :o) But that brings in those exceptions I mentioned. Naturally, I wouldn’t teach an effect right at the table and give them the “Family Guy” opportunity. The circumstances would have to be right… as well as the money. Again, I teach magic for money. When I demo at the local magic shop, I’m teaching for money. I cannot be guaranteed that the guy who just bought Scotch & Soda didn’t do so just to go heckle the magi performing at the local IHOP… or that the kid at Magic Camp didn’t come just to expose the effects to everyone in his math class.

So, if the circumstances are right and the money is great, yup… “come-on-over-here-big-fella, this is called a double lift and here’s what you’ll need to do.” BUT… I do see your point and respect it.

Years ago I was talking to a guy who'd worked at a high-end mid-west hotel after WW II. One afternoon he was talking to some guests and did some magic for them. The male guest pulled him aside and said, “I’d pay $100 to know how that coin got into the bottle.” My friend described how he ran to his room to get the gimmick because $100 was far more than he earned in two weeks or three weeks.

Max Malini is reputed to have bought Dime and Penny sets that he sold to people who “wanted to learn a little magic.” He sold them for many times what he paid for them.

Many professionals have magic sets that carry their names. Selling magic when the opportunity presents itself isn’t a bad thing and isn’t “prostitution.”

If the following is possible -

Tell him to sign you a sort of waver freeing you of any responsibility for how he willl gamble HIS money.

Then tell him that since you are not sure of being right under pressure ... You give him your prediction at the following clause -

If he wins, he has to share a percentage of the money (you set that percentage) with you. If he loses, he clearly owes you nothing.

BUT, honestly, I would go with some of the other posters, the ones who suggested you to not give in to this guy's request, not matter how insistent he is.

To complicate things, I know a hypnotist who uses magic tricks to create the illusion of hypnosis, and then he sells hypnosis lessons! So he uses magic as his marketing strategy. He is certified in hypnosis but he does magic to get his clients, claiming that what they just witnessed was hypnosis.

While I agree that "selling magic" isn't "prostitution," I believe that selling the secrets of magic - for secret sake alone - is prostitution. That is, of course, using the Oxford definition in the broad sense: "(2) put to an unworthy or corrupt use for the sake of gain."

I offer magic tricks at a number of my shows. I also offer magic party favors to clients, since low-cost favors are hard to find in this area. I also manufacture and sell several of my own effects. So... I agree with you, that it isn't a "bad thing," in that respect. But, PERSONALLY, selling the secret to someone I just performed for (simply because they want to know how it is done) is prostitution to me.

Insight,

I miss how THE ABOVE complicate things related to your situation...

It doesn't complicate it for my situation but rather for the discussion at hand! It is another nuance.

Ok... Then let me ask you... Which percentage of people according to what you know is buying his "magic tricks" as Hypnosis...

I'm only asking you because I'm envious of him doing such a thing....

I'll look at the Vegas spread. They are UNBELIEVABLY accurate for the most part.
Sorry, huge sports fan myself

To complicate things, I know a hypnotist who uses magic tricks to create the illusion of hypnosis, and then he sells hypnosis lessons! So he uses magic as his marketing strategy. He is certified in hypnosis but he does magic to get his clients, claiming that what they just witnessed was hypnosis.

Woah, was that a glitch in the Matrix?

LOL...Paolo, I'm not sure what % of people is buying his magic tricks as "hypnosis"...hypnosis does not come cheap, so my assumption is that even if a small % is buying it, it adds up to quite a bit of revenue.

Ted, yes that was a glitch.

Regards,
Mike