Ok not sure if any sports betters are here. Certainly not sure if anyone is following or betting on the World Cup, but has anyone heard about this thing?

Being a fan of the odd, I have followed this guy from the first. Heck I bet the way he said! But being in Madrid with my wife (who is Spanish FROM Madrid) I was not sure how to bet when the octo was going to predict. Well lucky me he bet on Spain too! I mean they fear for the life of Paul the octo now.

Just curious if anyone followed the psychic octopus.

Here is a link.
http://www.edenmagnet.com.au/news/nation......911.aspx

Wow does this smell of unconscious cuing by his handlers.

Lets see how he does in a double blind test

Well then the handlers have a fantastic record for picking games! SOMEONE is onto something here LOL.

The chances of him guessing correctly are about 1.6%. That's small enough to be impressive but large enough to possible. Think of it this way...If there are 50-60 similar soothsaying attempts being performed around the world at the same time, at least one of them will be correct.

An Octopus is quite an intelligent create. They have the ability to learn complex motor actions quite quickly and have excellent spatial awareness.

This means they could learn to open a box quicker each time but not necessary learn how to open the box CUED to them by the handlers. They don't have the same bonding abilities that animals like dogs, horses and parrots do.

http://www.slate.com/id/2192211

All the cuing has to be is which is lowered closer or a bit sooner. You have a positive feedback system btw the handler and the octopus. If the handler expects a certain result he may well be influencing the choice subconsciously. (The old card pndulum being a great example of this effect in action.)

In any event my point is simply that the odds could be being pushed a bit by someone who is actually aware what the sport is and when the teams have no chance. Keep in mind that the odds are NOT always 50/50. It depends on the teams.

But yes, the point is well taken that, sooner or later, the octopus will fail, and then the story will simply disapear leaving people talking about all the times he di it right and not the time he did it wrong. Thus is the nature of the human animal.

The boxes are lowered at the same time on the same platform. The only major discrepancy is the national flag on the front of each container. If it's cued by color, then that could be a factor for choosing -- but it would still have nothing to do with it being correct 100% of the time.

The odds of a particular team winning is rarely 50/50.

The odds of the Octopus guessing correctly are EXACTLY 50/50.

It is important to point out that the octopus always went for the same side. Every time.
I hate the freaking animal anyway, I was very disappointed when we lost to Germany.
Thank God Spain is on the final.

Please. An octopus picking the world cup winner? Don't insult my intelligence. Everyone with half a brain knows to get this kind of accuracy you need a lobster.

Not entirely correct. With a 50/50 coin toss-type proposition bet I can predict being right 50% of the time over the long run. But what do you say when I start hitting 60-70-80%? How about 100%?

Explain this to me in more detail please? I am curious as to how this works.

My wife loves the octopus.

FILL

Well he did it again, does the Austrailian wizard of smart want to give us the odds on that?

It will be curious as to if Spain does win. I mean they are supposed to and all but wow a 100% octopus!

1 in 128 or .8%

Well Spain won.

I guess next time it is point spreads.

The final odds of Paul picking all eight winners was 1 in 256 or 0.38%.

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