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The Magic Cafe Forum Index Ľ Ľ Not very magical, still... Ľ Ľ The Real Climategate Scandal (0 Likes) Printer Friendly Version

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Dannydoyle
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On 2010-08-14 22:50, Woland wrote:
If anyone is interested in considering the role of statistical analysis in the models of climate history that have been bandied about in the anthropogenic global warming debate, a paper will be published in the Annals of Applied Statistics this fall, but is available now, here: http://wattsupwiththat.files.wordpress.c......2010.pdf

The authors, from Northwestern and the University of Pennsylvania, note first of all that the climatologists have generally not collaborated with university-level statisticians; that when modern statistical methods are applied, evidence for the "hockey stick" is lacking in the data; and that the climatologists significantly underestimate the uncertainty in their models.

A major problem from the statistical point of view is that the "response and predictor variables are both strongly autocorrelated." Hence "time dependence in the temperature series is sufficiently strong to permit complex sequences of random numbers to forecast out-of-sample reasonably well fairly frequently" -- this means that the climatologists constructed their models so that even using them to analyze random numbers yield the result of threatening global warming.

To reiterate my criticisms of the global warming models, (1) the data are too sparse and too poor in quality to justify the sweeping conclusions of the enthusiasts, and (2) the statistical models that the climatologists employ are seriously flawed. The evidence is just not good enough to justify up-ending every industrial economy in the world.

Woland


Take that all of you said that the models were skewed, that the math didn't make sense. What do you have to say for yourself now? (read as sarcasam)
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus
<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
rockwall
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This almost brings back fond memories of past discussion threads with psychic samurai when I could get posts deleted or locked for saying things like, mmmmmmm, hockey stick!
tommy
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David Wright Miliband (born 15 July 1965) is a British Labour Party politician, who has been the Member of Parliament (MP) for South Shields since 2001, the Shadow Foreign Secretary since 2010 and was the Secretary of State for Foreign and Commonwealth Affairs from 2007 to 2010. He is the son of the late Marxist theorist Ralph Miliband.

The next British Prime Minister
http://www.davidmiliband.net/

Miliband plans carbon trading 'credit cards' for everyone


Every citizen would be issued with a carbon "credit card" - to be swiped every time they bought petrol, paid an energy utility bill or booked an airline ticket - under a nationwide carbon rationing scheme that could come into operation within five years, according to a feasibility study commissioned by the environment secretary, David Miliband, and published today.
In an interview with the Guardian Mr Miliband said the idea of individual carbon allowances had "a simplicity and beauty that would reward carbon thrift".
He acknowledged the proposal faced technical difficulties, but said ministers needed to seek ways of overcoming them.

The idea was floated in a speech in the summer, but the detailed proposals show Mr Miliband is serious about trying to press ahead with the radical idea as a central part of his climate change strategy.

Under the scheme, everybody would be given an annual allowance of the carbon they could expend on a range of products, probably food, energy and travel. If they wanted to use more carbon, they would be able to buy it from somebody else. And they could sell any surplus.
The study was prepared by the Centre for Sustainable Energy for the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs. It argues that firms like Tesco have shown that complex computer schemes logging billions of transactions are feasible. "Tesco Clubcard is collecting, storing and analysing some 50bn pieces of data a year," it says.
The study also claims that individual carbon trading is less regressive than carbon taxes, as the poor emit less than the rich. Instead of flat "green" taxes it proposes a hybrid system using permits and taxes, with the permits possibly issued, tracked and traded through the existing banking system using pin and chip technology. Carbon allowances could be treated as bank accounts.
The report admits huge questions would have to be resolved, including the risk of fraud, the relationship to ID cards, and costs. However Mr Miliband said "bold thinking is required because the world is in a dangerous place".
He said: "It is a way of pricing carbon emissions into individual behaviour and it would recognise carbon thrift, as well as economic thrift. Twenty years ago if I had said 8 million people would have a Tesco loyalty card, no one would have believed me." The scheme will be discussed at a special cabinet committee on the future role of the state convened for today.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2006/......politics
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
MagicSanta
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Some I sense scurry around trying to find ways to prove the accuracy while the rest of us just shake our heads sadly...with just a tad bit of amusement.
tommy
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Santa you are already a victim of this con.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
MagicSanta
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I pretty much ignore it but yes I am a victim.....and it makes me disgruntled...yet adorable.
Woland
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Tommy,

It is evident that the elites want to control every moment of our lives. How did the song go?

(If you drive a car ), Iíll tax the street,
(If you try to sit ), Iíll tax your seat,
(If you get too cold ), Iíll tax the heat,
(If you take a walk ), Iíll tax your feet.

I don't think even Eric Blair could have imagined a totalitarianism as complete as the one planned by David Milliband.

Woland
tommy
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Smile

It is an amusement if you find being out of work on rations an amusement.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
balducci
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Quote:
On 2010-08-14 23:46, Magnus Eisengrim wrote:
Quote:
On 2010-08-14 23:39, balducci wrote:

Are you sure it is accepted for publication? The article itself says only that it was SUBMITTED to the Annals of Applied Statistics. McShanes's CV says the same thing, i.e., the paper is submitted not accepted.



Looks as though it has been accepted and is in the queue for publication.

That said, the conclusion section is pretty modest. I'm looking forward to what you have to say about the full content of the paper.

John

Yep, you're right. It is accepted.

I still have not read the paper, but one thing I noticed while glancing through was that it makes use of the lasso in certain parts. The lasso is a relatively new statistical methodology. It was only developed in the mid-1990s, and is still not a part of most undergraduate courses / programs in statistics. Which is just to say that many people (and the vast majority of non-statisticians) reading the paper won't have a sufficient background in the methodologies involved in order to really understand or evaluate it.

One criticism of their methodology, taken off the web, is as follows:

---
"They give absolutely no reasons to suppose that the Lasso ó a method that makes _very_strong_ implicit assumptions about the data ó is in any way appropriate for this problem.

The Lasso _is_ appropriate in certain cases where you believe that only a small subset of your variables are relevant. To use it as a substitute for any data reduction with 1200 variables and 119 data points, when _all_ the temperature proxy series are presumed to be relevant to some degree, and all are thought to be noisy, is simply stupid.

Not surprisingly, they find they canít predict anything at all using the Lasso. (It is a completely inappropriate technique for the problem.)"
---

I am not an expert in the lasso (although as it happens I know the statistician who developed it and I'm pretty sure I heard him lecture about it when I was at the U of Toronto), but the above statement does make some sense to me. Note, the original lasso paper included several examples with 50 observations and 1 predictor variable, and another with 100 observations and 40 predictor variables. Again, in comparison, McShane and Wyner's paper has 119 observations and 1200 predictor variables. Look at how the number of predictor variables is many times larger than the number of observations in this last case. To be honest, I'm not sure whether this is more than the lasso can handle or not. But it is something worth looking into.

In a 2009 paper appearing in the Annals of Statistics, "Lasso-type recovery of sparse representations for high-dimensional data" by Nicolai Meinshausen and Bin Yu, the authors note:

"The Lasso is an attractive technique for regularization and variable selection for high-dimensional data, where the number of predictor variables pn is potentially much larger than the number of samples n. However, it was recently discovered that the sparsity pattern of the Lasso estimator can only be asymptotically identical to the true sparsity pattern if the design matrix satisfies the so-called irrepresentable condition. The latter condition can easily be violated in the presence of highly correlated variables."

So highly correlated variables can be a problem for the lasso, and that certainly DOES appear to be the case in the paper by McShane and Wyner.

According to a post apparently made by Abraham Wyner on the web:

---
Abaraham Wyner
Posted Aug 14, 2010 at 8:34 PM |Permalink |Reply

Thanks for the welcome response. For the record, Blakely just graduated with a Phd in Statistics under my supervision from the University of Pennsylvania (not Penn State!).

The paper has been accepted, but publication is still a bit into the future as it is likely to be accompanied by invited discussants and comment. Stay tunedÖ
---

I look forward to that discussion, which is likely include one or more statisticians addressing their use of the lasso, and which is also almost certainly to be far more informative and meaningful than anything found here. Smile
Make America Great Again! - Trump in 2020 ... "We're a capitalistic society. I go into business, I don't make it, I go bankrupt. They're not going to bail me out. I've been on welfare and food stamps. Did anyone help me? No." - Craig T. Nelson, actor.
tommy
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Dr. Denis Rancourt, a former professor and environmental science researcher at the University of Ottawa, has officially bailed out of the man-made global warming movement.

In a hard-hitting and exclusive new exclusive video just released by Climate Depot, Dr. Rancourt declares that the entire man-made global warming movement is nothing more than a ďcorrupt social phenomenon.Ē ďIt is as much psychological and social phenomenon as anything else,Ē Rancourt, who has published peer-reviewed research, explained in a June 8, 2010 essay.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
balducci
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Quote:
On 2010-08-15 21:00, tommy wrote:

Dr. Denis Rancourt, a former professor and environmental science researcher at the University of Ottawa, has officially bailed out of the man-made global warming movement.

And why is he a 'former' professor? Interested parties can look into that for themselves.
Make America Great Again! - Trump in 2020 ... "We're a capitalistic society. I go into business, I don't make it, I go bankrupt. They're not going to bail me out. I've been on welfare and food stamps. Did anyone help me? No." - Craig T. Nelson, actor.
tommy
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Shoot the messenger!
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
balducci
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Quote:
On 2010-08-15 21:49, tommy wrote:
Shoot the messenger!

Don't shoot him. But if you are citing him as an expert, you should know something about him first. Do that and, for all I know, he may be all that more credible in your eyes.
Make America Great Again! - Trump in 2020 ... "We're a capitalistic society. I go into business, I don't make it, I go bankrupt. They're not going to bail me out. I've been on welfare and food stamps. Did anyone help me? No." - Craig T. Nelson, actor.
tommy
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Maybe you should attack the mans evidence and not the man.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
Magnus Eisengrim
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Tommy, the only support you gave him was his status as a former professor. Maybe you should read his paper and support the evidence, and not the man.

John
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats
tommy
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Quote:
On 2010-08-14 23:45, Jonathan Townsend wrote:
Where are we in cycle of ice ages?
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
MagicSanta
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Ice ages are caused by global warming....
tommy
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John

Maybe his essay speaks for itself and maybe you should read it and attack his evidence if you donít agree. Its his evidence not mine. Google is your friend.

Don't see your answer to jon yet?
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
Magnus Eisengrim
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Good try, Tommy, but a failure. You brought him into the conversation. The onus is not on me to do your reading for you.

Did Jon ask me a question?

John
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats
tommy
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Yes

We shale take your silence connotes agreement, that we are in between ice ages, that the planet is recovering from the little ice age so perhaps warming, that itís a certain fact that the planet will go into another ice age at some time in the future and thus itís simply a natural cycle we are going through and manmade climate is a con. Thank you.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
The Magic Cafe Forum Index Ľ Ľ Not very magical, still... Ľ Ľ The Real Climategate Scandal (0 Likes)
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