The Magic Cafť
Username:
Password:
[ Lost Password ]
  [ Forgot Username ]
The Magic Cafe Forum Index Ľ Ľ Not very magical, still... Ľ Ľ The Real Climategate Scandal (0 Likes) Printer Friendly Version

 Go to page [Previous]  1~2~3..7..11..15..19..20~21~22~23~24~25~26 [Next]
Magnus Eisengrim
View Profile
Inner circle
Sulla placed heads on
1064 Posts

Profile of Magnus Eisengrim
Tommy since you know so much more than the rest of us, perhaps you can explain Mcshane and Wyner's use of the "lasso" technique. Why is or isn't it appropriate to the phenomenon they were trying to describe.

Heck you have all the answers; this one should be easy for you. Maybe you'll find it on youtube.

John
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats
MagicSanta
View Profile
Inner circle
Northern Nevada
5845 Posts

Profile of MagicSanta
Can't you all get along?
tommy
View Profile
Eternal Order
Devilís Island
16262 Posts

Profile of tommy
Do not hold your wrist stiffly, but allow it to move easily as you swing the noose over your head.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
Payne
View Profile
Inner circle
Seattle
4572 Posts

Profile of Payne
Quote:
On 2010-08-15 22:57, tommy wrote:
Yes

We shale take your silence connotes agreement, that we are in between ice ages, that the planet is recovering from the little ice age so perhaps warming, that itís a certain fact that the planet will go into another ice age at some time in the future and thus itís simply a natural cycle we are going through and manmade climate is a con. Thank you.


And pray tell what is the force behind this "Natural Cycle"?

There must be a cause. It just doesn't happen because it's a "Natural Cycle". All warming and cooling trends in the past have had a cause. changes in solar output. Alterations in the earths orbit or rotation. Changes in ocean current or continental configurations. Increase or decrease in plant life. So what is the change that is causing our current warming trend? What is the natural force behind it?
"America's Foremost Satirical Magician" -- Jeff McBride.
MagicSanta
View Profile
Inner circle
Northern Nevada
5845 Posts

Profile of MagicSanta
Really Tommy. You should know that the beauty of this planet, if it is indeed a planet, is the way that weather and the earth itself has always maintained an even keel, so to speak. Weather has never, ever...EVER, shown a flunctuation, in fact when I think of weather the first and only word that crosses my mind is stability. Earth doesn't MAKE (notice that use of caps? I learned that from marketing gurus) pollution, only MAN makes pollution, let me clarify, only Western man makes pollution. If not for humans it would be PERFECT in every way. There are only three ways to get the earth back to its stable self:

1. Move all manufacturing to Asia or Europe.
2. Eliminate all energy sources. We can't do the entire world so we will start with the area between, say, The Bahamas and Catalina Island from East to West and, uhhhhh, lets say Canada and Mexico from North to South, just as an experiment.
3. Follow the loving and enviromental philosophy of:

Green
Enviromental
Nations
Observing
Clean
Industries
Devoted to
Everyone

Get it together people!
Magnus Eisengrim
View Profile
Inner circle
Sulla placed heads on
1064 Posts

Profile of Magnus Eisengrim
Quote:
On 2010-08-15 20:35, balducci wrote:



One criticism of their methodology, taken off the web, is as follows:

---
"They give absolutely no reasons to suppose that the Lasso ó a method that makes _very_strong_ implicit assumptions about the data ó is in any way appropriate for this problem.

The Lasso _is_ appropriate in certain cases where you believe that only a small subset of your variables are relevant. To use it as a substitute for any data reduction with 1200 variables and 119 data points, when _all_ the temperature proxy series are presumed to be relevant to some degree, and all are thought to be noisy, is simply stupid.

Not surprisingly, they find they canít predict anything at all using the Lasso. (It is a completely inappropriate technique for the problem.)"
---



Thanks. Do you have a link for this? I might as well see if I can learn something.

John
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats
MagicSanta
View Profile
Inner circle
Northern Nevada
5845 Posts

Profile of MagicSanta
Yeah, those stats are kinda like blasphemy....
balducci
View Profile
Loyal user
Canada
230 Posts

Profile of balducci
Quote:
On 2010-08-15 23:58, Magnus Eisengrim wrote:

Thanks. Do you have a link for this? I might as well see if I can learn something.

See the ongoing discussion in the comments here:

http://climateaudit.org/2010/08/14/mcshane-and-wyner-2010/

But it is pretty clear that most of the people there don't even know what the "lasso" is.

If you want to read something technical about the lasso, you can try:

http://www-stat.stanford.edu/~tibs/lasso.html
Make America Great Again! - Trump in 2020 ... "We're a capitalistic society. I go into business, I don't make it, I go bankrupt. They're not going to bail me out. I've been on welfare and food stamps. Did anyone help me? No." - Craig T. Nelson, actor.
MagicSanta
View Profile
Inner circle
Northern Nevada
5845 Posts

Profile of MagicSanta
For those who never studied statistics here is the appropriate response to the two types found on this subject:

1. "This statistic shows that global warming is not only worse than we thought but that it is absolutely produced by the industrialization of Western society!"

Response: "My gawd! The method of obtaining that amazingly accurate data is without question! It should be accepted by all that see it..."

2. "This statstic shows that the global warming is not established beyond what seems to be an expected flunctuation of weather that is, presently, minimal and not expecting to destroy the universe"

Response "My gawd! Those liars have not only inaccurate data their methods are completely bogus!"


Got it? Now go and live it....
tommy
View Profile
Eternal Order
Devilís Island
16262 Posts

Profile of tommy
Quote:

And pray tell what is the force behind this "Natural Cycle"?

There must be a cause. It just doesn't happen because it's a "Natural Cycle". All warming and cooling trends in the past have had a cause. changes in solar output. Alterations in the earths orbit or rotation. Changes in ocean current or continental configurations. Increase or decrease in plant life. So what is the change that is causing our current warming trend? What is the natural force behind it?


When the planet comes out of any ice age it has been in in the past it warms for a long time after. Man did not cause the planet to warm as it recovered from any other ice age that the planet has been in. Do you think the Egyptians built the pyramids in the ice age and that caused the planet to warm? Do you see that big yellow thing in the sky? Maybe its that.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
MagicSanta
View Profile
Inner circle
Northern Nevada
5845 Posts

Profile of MagicSanta
Are you refering to that giant ball of pollution? Well? Prove it isn't!
tommy
View Profile
Eternal Order
Devilís Island
16262 Posts

Profile of tommy
Sun, now we can no longer afford to ignore this.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
Payne
View Profile
Inner circle
Seattle
4572 Posts

Profile of Payne
Quote:
On 2010-08-16 01:03, tommy wrote:

Do you see that big yellow thing in the sky? Maybe its that.



And you have evidence of increased solar output or a divergence in the tilt or orbit of the earth that might cause an increase in our absorption of solar radiation?

Once again Tommy I will ask you. What is the mechanism behind the warming trend we are currently experiencing? What evidence do you have to support your claim. Just saying the earth is getting warmer because that's what it does between ice ages is not an answer. Even a "Natural Cycle" has an explanation and a reason for its occurrence.
"America's Foremost Satirical Magician" -- Jeff McBride.
MagicSanta
View Profile
Inner circle
Northern Nevada
5845 Posts

Profile of MagicSanta
Payne, I've always credited you with a bit more than average sense. Are you stating that you believe that the overall average temp increase of the world is solely caused by humans and that there is no indication that the earth has ever gone through a warming or cooling period which can be attributed to natural effects such as tides, tilt, or just that's the way it goes when one deals with billions of years of history? You can keep asking why until you run out of answers, that is easy. Hurricanes originate from hot air in the Sahara. Why is that hot air causing hurricanes while others are not? Why is there hot air that is different? Eventually the answer is "%@$# happens".

Did the earth warm up over the period that accurate temps can be taken? Yes, by a bit more than 1 degree over the last 100 years or so. Of course this isn't a worldwide event now is it? Some regions are cooler, some dryer, some rainier, some warmer...rather than acknowledge that lets just point our boney fingers at Global Warming. So, being a rational person who can recognize fairly accurate measurements can admit the temp over the last century is, overall as an average, higher. The assumption is that any event during the last century that did not occur previously in history is the culprit. So it MUST be caused by the increase on pollutants during the first, say, almost 2/3rd of the century, brought on by the major changes in industry, transportation, and energy. There! It is easy! Hey, the temp could have gone up two degrees in the 19th century but who knows? Accuracy wasn't real big then. Maybe the increase is due to airplanes cutting through the air? Hasn't the increase in temp occured during a period of more use of airplanes? Maybe the fault is due to McDonalds fries, they were not around in the 1800's, let's look at the history of McDonalds and then see if temps have gone up, if so then it might be the answer. Wait a minute, the increase seems to have occured more so since I was born, maybe I'm at fault. Since air pollution and other pollutants have decreased since the fifties, with no help from the enviros who shoved oil and coal energy down out throats when we were trying to get cleaner energy going in the 70s then the indication still leans toward planes, fries, or me.

There is a saying that I love. It is "Statistics are like bikini's, what they reveal is interesting, what they conceal is vital".
tommy
View Profile
Eternal Order
Devilís Island
16262 Posts

Profile of tommy
Of course there must be a cause. The total complexity that creates weather is something I do not profess to know or would have enough time to explain today if I did.
Now ask yourself why CO2 has received so much attention? Itís less than 4 percent of the greenhouse gases and a miniscule part of the total complexity that creates weather. Yet itís the sole focus of all climate and energy policy. Why?

Isnít the answer simple and obvious by now? That the reason they chose CO2 out of the multitude of all the stuff that creates weather in this old world of ours, is because itís the one that the elite quislings of world can control human activity with by rationing what we can do because what we do creates C02.

Itís the very fact that the total complexity of things that make the weather yet they pick on that minuscule one thing called C02 that should tell you itís a con.

What is a confidence trick based on? Confidence right? What do you believers base your belief on? Confidence in these scientist right? You admit you donít understand the science. They are con men. Get over it. Sorry I forgot they are out to save the planet! Just ike bankers and politicians are.

Look they are destroying the $ and bringing in carbon currency, that is their agenda. You can buy expert opinion and they are using your money to buy it. These guys behind this are the best con men in the world. You guys should read their books.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
Ray Tupper.
View Profile
Special user
NG16.
749 Posts

Profile of Ray Tupper.
Quote:
On 2010-08-15 23:54, MagicSanta wrote:
Green
Enviromental
Nations
Observing
Clean
Industries
Devoted to
Everyone

Very clever,and probably un-noticed.
Ray.
What do we want?
A cure for tourettes!
When do we want it?
C*nt!
landmark
View Profile
Inner circle
within a triangle
5024 Posts

Profile of landmark
Noticed here.


So far only Dannydoyle has addressed the issue that if there are significant changes to the climate, and it is not manmade, then he believes nothing should be done. So for him, the issue of man vs other forces is moot. We don't need to waste time on that argument for him.

What about others? Where do you stand? If it can be shown that significant climate change is occurring, not manmade, should action be taken?

I'll answer yes if:

a) it can be shown the climate change would be harmful to the prospects of humankind's survival;

b) The interventions were thought out in a way that would at worst not harm, and at best improve humankind's survival.

The argument that massive climate change has occurred before, to me, is only relevant as to what occurs within the lifespan of humankind. It arguably may only take a century or less for climate change to affect humankind's survival, though in geologic terms we are young.

As to possible interventions, given the way society is currently organized, it seems unlikely that appropriate interventions will be implemented. There is too much greed and denial (and I don't mean climate change denial so much as the death culture denial that we are steeped in).

So I think we are in real trouble. I don't know if we will make it to the next century, let alone the next millenium.

And if that doesn't cheer you up, don't blame me.
Magnus Eisengrim
View Profile
Inner circle
Sulla placed heads on
1064 Posts

Profile of Magnus Eisengrim
Quote:
On 2010-08-16 00:14, balducci wrote:
Quote:
On 2010-08-15 23:58, Magnus Eisengrim wrote:

Thanks. Do you have a link for this? I might as well see if I can learn something.

See the ongoing discussion in the comments here:

http://climateaudit.org/2010/08/14/mcshane-and-wyner-2010/

But it is pretty clear that most of the people there don't even know what the "lasso" is.

If you want to read something technical about the lasso, you can try:

http://www-stat.stanford.edu/~tibs/lasso.html


Thanks. I've got some time the next few days, so I'll see what I can understand.

John
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats
Dannydoyle
View Profile
Eternal Order
20614 Posts

Profile of Dannydoyle
If warming is happening (and there is indications it has not since 1990 but oh well) and it is NOT our fault I do not think we know enough about climate, and how climate systems work to be futzing about trying to change them. For all we know one of the things we change makes it worse in 20 years. What then? Do we ever think about downstream concequences?

For a group that cried so loud when we invaded a country without an 'exit strategy' it seems as if this is a worse idea.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus
<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
Payne
View Profile
Inner circle
Seattle
4572 Posts

Profile of Payne
Quote:
On 2010-08-16 02:05, MagicSanta wrote:
Payne, I've always credited you with a bit more than average sense. Are you stating that you believe that the overall average temp increase of the world is solely caused by humans and that there is no indication that the earth has ever gone through a warming or cooling period which can be attributed to natural effects such as tides, tilt, or just that's the way it goes when one deals with billions of years of history? You can keep asking why until you run out of answers, that is easy. Hurricanes originate from hot air in the Sahara. Why is that hot air causing hurricanes while others are not? Why is there hot air that is different? Eventually the answer is "%@$# happens".


I've never said that previous warming and cooling trends never occurred. They most certainly have and had naturally occurring causation. I do not believe that the current warming cycle is completely man made but that it has been augmented by our use of hydrocarbons in their various forms. At least that's what the evidence is suggesting.



Did the earth warm up over the period that accurate temps can be taken? Yes, by a bit more than 1 degree over the last 100 years or so. Of course this isn't a worldwide event now is it? Some regions are cooler, some dryer, some rainier, some warmer...rather than acknowledge that lets just point our boney fingers at Global Warming. So, being a rational person who can recognize fairly accurate measurements can admit the temp over the last century is, overall as an average, higher. The assumption is that any event during the last century that did not occur previously in history is the culprit.

[/quote]

As I told Tommy. Changes in temperature require causation. Has there been a shift in the earth's orbit, a change in the tilt of the axis? Has a new Isthmus risen somewhere that has changed the ocean's current?

Quote:
So it MUST be caused by the increase on pollutants during the first, say, almost 2/3rd of the century, brought on by the major changes in industry, transportation, and energy. There! It is easy!


Yes it is. You'd think someone of your vast intellect would see it. Smile
"America's Foremost Satirical Magician" -- Jeff McBride.
The Magic Cafe Forum Index Ľ Ľ Not very magical, still... Ľ Ľ The Real Climategate Scandal (0 Likes)
 Go to page [Previous]  1~2~3..7..11..15..19..20~21~22~23~24~25~26 [Next]
[ Top of Page ]
All content & postings Copyright © 2001-2021 Steve Brooks. All Rights Reserved.
This page was created in 0.2 seconds requiring 5 database queries.
The views and comments expressed on The Magic Café
are not necessarily those of The Magic Café, Steve Brooks, or Steve Brooks Magic.
> Privacy Statement <

ROTFL Billions and billions served! ROTFL