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The Magic Cafe Forum Index » » Not very magical, still... » » Of Concern (0 Likes) Printer Friendly Version

Woland
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Niall Ferguson writes:

Quote:
According to the United Nations, there are far more men than women on the planet. The gender gap is especially pronounced in Asia, where there are 100 million more guys than girls. This may come as a surprise to people in the Western world, where women outnumber men because—other things being equal—the mortality rate for women is lower than for men in all age groups. Nobel Prize-winning economist Amartya Sen calls it the mystery of Asia’s “missing women.”

In China today, according to American Enterprise Institute demographer Nicholas Eberstadt, there are about 123 male children for every 100 females up to the age of 4, a far higher imbalance than 50 years ago, when the figure was 106. In Jiangxi, Guangdong, Hainan, and Anhui provinces, baby boys outnumber baby girls by 30 percent or more. This means that by the time today’s Chinese newborns reach adulthood, there will be a chronic shortage of potential spouses. According to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, one in five young men will be brideless. Within the age group 20 to 39, there will be 22 million more men than women. Imagine 10 cities the size of Houston populated exclusively by young males.

The question left open by economists is what the consequences will be of such a large surplus of young men. History offers a disquieting answer. According to the German scholar Gunnar Heinsohn, European imperial expansion after 1500 was the result of a male “youth bulge.” Japan’s imperial expansion after 1914 was the result of a similar youth bulge, Heinsohn argues. During the Cold War, it was youth-bulge countries—Algeria, El Salvador, and Lebanon—that saw the worst civil wars and revolutions. Heinsohn has also linked the recent rise of Islamist extremism in countries like Afghanistan, Iraq, and Pakistan to an Islamic youth bulge. Political scientists Valerie Hudson and Andrea den Boer warn that China and India could be the next countries to overdose on testosterone.


This phenomenon has been known for some time. It's not only China, but the surplus of men is perhaps most apparent there. It's not going away. Read any Spengler, lately?

Woland
stoneunhinged
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It won't go away anytime soon, that's for sure.

The unstated problem is that the reason more boys are born than girls is not nature, but choice: ultrasound + abortion makes it easy to get rid of those unwanted girls before they are born.

It's not a "mystery" of missing women at all. I'm surprised someone with a Nobel prize would think that.
tommy
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Are they killing more girls than boys in these wars?
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
abc
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Quote:
On 2011-03-08 07:38, stoneunhinged wrote:
It won't go away anytime soon, that's for sure.

The unstated problem is that the reason more boys are born than girls is not nature, but choice: ultrasound + abortion makes it easy to get rid of those unwanted girls before they are born.

It's not a "mystery" of missing women at all. I'm surprised someone with a Nobel prize would think that.

Never thought you to be one who rated these awards highly. I for one don't.
Woland
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Stone,

That reason is actually stated in the article. I think Dr. Sen's reference to a mystery was rhetorical. But even though it isn't a mystery, it is a challenging demographic issue, and a challenging issue for the people involved. The one-child policy has drastically altered traditional family patterns in China in other ways. The young generation in China is made up almost exclusively of single children who were indulged, even doted on by their parents and two sets of grandparents. The next 50 years, if we survive 12/12/2012, are going to be very interesting.

Woland
abc
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Quote:
On 2011-03-08 10:05, Woland wrote:
The next 50 years, if we survive 12/12/2012, are going to be very interesting.

Woland


LOL. Very funny.
stoneunhinged
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Woland, I just saw that your first sentence was actually a link to the whole article. I missed that for some reason. Now I'll actually read the whole darn thing.
Woland
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It isn't very long, really, and hardly an in-depth analysis. The overall outline of the problem is well stated.

Woland
stoneunhinged
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Yeah, but in the original article they explicitly stated the points I made, so my post was redundant.

As often happens.
Magnus Eisengrim
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Don't worry about Amartya Sen. He's one of our time's great intellectuals despite winning the Nobel Prize Smile
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats
Woland
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Stone,

Not redundant, since I hadn't quote those parts. It just shows that you have the ability to zero in on the key points like a laser.

Woland
ed rhodes
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Quote:
On 2011-03-08 07:38, stoneunhinged wrote:
It won't go away anytime soon, that's for sure.

The unstated problem is that the reason more boys are born than girls is not nature, but choice: ultrasound + abortion makes it easy to get rid of those unwanted girls before they are born.

It's not a "mystery" of missing women at all. I'm surprised someone with a Nobel prize would think that.


Some times you don't need "ultrasound" or "abortion" to achieve these goals. It's amazing, in these cultures, how often female babies suddenly become "stillborn," because the families want sons.
"There's no time to lose," I heard her say.
"Catch your dreams before they slip away."
"Dying all the time, lose your dreams and you could lose your mind.
Ain't life unkind?"
MagicSanta
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Gee....more men than women in China? They said that was coming 20 years ago.
tommy
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The good news is the sperm count is down 80% in the USA since the government decided there were too many people.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
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