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tommy Eternal Order Devil's Island 16544 Posts |
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.
Tommy |
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ed rhodes Inner circle Rhode Island 2885 Posts |
I didn't care for the line about the Obama administration celebrating and rewarding someone who "emotionalizes" an issue.
After all, isn't that how we got into this mess in the Middle East from the Bush administration "emotionalizing" the issue in leu of any actual facts?
"...and if you're too afraid of goin' astray, you won't go anywhere." - Granny Weatherwax
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Magnus Eisengrim Inner circle Sulla placed heads on 1053 Posts |
In Delingpole's typical dishonest fashion, he selectively quoted from the source article. Somehow he missed the 2nd and 3rd paragraphs:
Quote:
The federal agency where he works told him he was on leave pending the results of an investigation into "integrity issues." A watchdog group believes it has to do with the 2006 journal article about the bear, but a source familiar with the investigation said late Thursday that placing Monnett on leave had nothing to with scientific integrity or the article. Hmm. I guess we'll have to wait for the FACTS before we can sort this one out. Delingpole ends with the bizarre nonsequitur: Quote:
Anyhoo, weep not for the polar bear. The polar bears are doing just fine. Well not according to independent Canadian research But what's the point of scientific facts when you've got right-wing bloggers who know everything? John Quote: In 2008, the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada (COSEWIC) assessed the Polar Bear as a single overall population in accordance with established criteria. In its report, COSEWIC also reported trends by subpopulation. Population models project that 4 of 13 subpopulations (27% of Canada's 15 500 polar bears) have a high risk of declining by 30% or more over the next three bear generations (36 years). Declines are partly attributed to climate change for western Hudson Bay (Nunavut and Manitoba) and the southern Beaufort Sea (Northwest Territories), but are mostly due to unsustainable harvesting in Kane Basin and Baffin Bay (Nunavut). Seven subpopulations (43% of the total population) are projected to be stable or increasing. Trends currently cannot be projected for two subpopulations (Davis Strait, Foxe Basin - Nunavut - 29% of the total population).
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats |
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tommy Eternal Order Devil's Island 16544 Posts |
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.
Tommy |
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LobowolfXXX Inner circle La Famiglia 1196 Posts |
Quote:
On 2011-07-30 13:54, ed rhodes wrote: There were a few facts floating around. Those relevant facts that were missing were missing in large part due to Hussein's unwillingness to adhere to the terms of the ceasefire.
"Torture doesn't work" lol
Guess they forgot to tell Bill Buckley. "...as we reason and love, we are able to hope. And hope enables us to resist those things that would enslave us." |
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LobowolfXXX Inner circle La Famiglia 1196 Posts |
Quote:
On 2011-07-30 13:59, Magnus Eisengrim wrote: Are population models making projections into the future "scientific facts"? This is not to suggest that their estimates are not a cause for concern, or an indifference as to the survival of the polar bear.
"Torture doesn't work" lol
Guess they forgot to tell Bill Buckley. "...as we reason and love, we are able to hope. And hope enables us to resist those things that would enslave us." |
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tommy Eternal Order Devil's Island 16544 Posts |
They have changed the name again now its population change.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.
Tommy |
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Magnus Eisengrim Inner circle Sulla placed heads on 1053 Posts |
Good models are informed by data. If you go out and count bears--as they regularly do in Canada--you have facts. Because you have samples and not a census (no one could ever take a census of the entire population) you have to rely on mathematical modeling.
No, of course models are not facts. But they are fact-based and use real world data. John
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats |
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LobowolfXXX Inner circle La Famiglia 1196 Posts |
How long is a bear generation, anyway? I'd be interested to see how they do.
"Torture doesn't work" lol
Guess they forgot to tell Bill Buckley. "...as we reason and love, we are able to hope. And hope enables us to resist those things that would enslave us." |
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Magnus Eisengrim Inner circle Sulla placed heads on 1053 Posts |
The link I provided indicates that 3 polar bear generations is 36 years for their models. Googling around, I see that a 2009 paper suggests that the generation number be is closer to 10 years in the southern Beaufort Sea, but I have no clue as to whether the research community has accepted this recommendation, or if they think that it can be generalized to other populations. And I don't think I know any polar bear researchers to ask.
John
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats |
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tommy Eternal Order Devil's Island 16544 Posts |
Thank you Rex Murphy
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.
Tommy |
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Magnus Eisengrim Inner circle Sulla placed heads on 1053 Posts |
Quote:
On 2011-07-30 16:50, tommy wrote: The right-wing Newfie on CBC?
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats |
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tommy Eternal Order Devil's Island 16544 Posts |
Political scientists principally measure polarization in two ways.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.
Tommy |
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rockwall Special user 762 Posts |
Magnus, I’m confused.
You quote the blogger saying that Polar Bears are doing just fine and poo poo that statement by pointing to a Canadian study that seems to me to say pretty much the same thing. It shows 27% of the population having a risk of declining while 43% have a risk of staying stable or increasing. They don’t know what will happen with the final 29%. It concludes that for most subpopulations have show a slight increase over the last 10 years. How does that study indicate that they’re not doing fine? |
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Magnus Eisengrim Inner circle Sulla placed heads on 1053 Posts |
Good questions, Rockwall. First it is important to note that the populations are generally quite low. That some subpopulations are declining is very bad news and that some are stable or slowly improving is pretty good news. They're not doing fine, but things could be worse.
Note that on the government site in the link they note Quote:
For most subpopulations, population counts over time suggest a slight increase in the last 10-25 years. At the same time, bears in some subpopulations show declining health and changes in habitat location linked to decreased sea ice. The Polar Bear cannot persist without seasonal sea ice. So declining health and habitat loss continue to be very serious concerns. As a side note, the Canadian government announced earlier this month that the polar bear will officially be placed on the Species at Risk list. In this article they note that some subpopulations are doing much better than others. Not surprisingly, Inuit groups that hunt the healthy subpopulations are not so keen to have the bears protected. John
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats |
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rockwall Special user 762 Posts |
Generally low as compared to when? When I look at this link, I see quite a few quotes from scientists who don't seem worried about polar bear populations at all. (Some of them even quoting the same study you link to.)
http://epw.senate.gov/public/index.cfm?F......31233026 "The U.S. Fish & Wildlife Service estimates that the polar bear population is currently at 20,000 to 25,000 bears, up from as low as 5,000-10,000 bears in the 1950s and 1960s. A 2002 U.S. Geological Survey of wildlife in the Arctic Refuge Coastal Plain noted that the polar bear populations “may now be near historic highs.” Are these the sort of scientific 'facts' that you're suggesting right wing bloggers ignore? |
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balducci Loyal user Canada 227 Posts |
Quote:
On 2011-07-30 23:46, rockwall wrote: My understanding is that scientific sampling of the polar bear populations only started in the mid-1980s. The estimates of populations from the 1950s and 1960s were based on ad hoc estimates given by hunters and the like. These ad hoc estimates seriously underestimated the true population sizes, so you cannot legitimately compare estimated population numbers now to those back then. http://www.polarbearsinternational.org/p....../numbers The link above also notes the following: At the 2009 meeting of the IUCN Polar Bear Specialist Group, scientists reported that of the 19 subpopulations* of polar bears: --- * 8 are declining * 3 are stable * 1 is increasing By comparison, in 2005: * 5 were declining * 5 were stable * 2 were increasing --- * The remaining populations could not be tracked. But those that could, were overall worse off in 2009 versus in 2005.
Make America Great Again! - Trump in 2020 ... "We're a capitalistic society. I go into business, I don't make it, I go bankrupt. They're not going to bail me out. I've been on welfare and food stamps. Did anyone help me? No." - Craig T. Nelson, actor.
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Magnus Eisengrim Inner circle Sulla placed heads on 1053 Posts |
As luck would have it, an Edmonton-based biologist has just published a book on polar bears.
Polar Bears: A Natural History of a Threatened Species The publisher's blurb is: [quote}Dr Ian Stirling, the best known polar bear scientist in the world, compresses the major new discoveries of the last 40 years of research on this iconic mammal into a new easily readable and scientifically comprehensive book about the ecology and natural history of polar bears. He explains how polar bears evolved, how they were researched, aspects of their behaviour and how the threat of global warming is jeopardizing the survival of this magnificent hunter.[/url] A reviewer at Polar Bears International wrote Quote:
“With this book—the best ever to be written about polar bears—we are blessed with the opportunity to benefit from Ian Stirling's extensive knowledge and life-long experience with this magnificent animal. He shows us that the Far North is not a barren and hostile environment, but unique and beautiful. The new knowledge presented in this book is crucial for conservation and management of Arctic nature and its polar bears. Read Ian Stirling's book, admire the pictures, and enjoy.” Thor S. Larsen, founding member of the IUCN Polar Bear Specialist Group, director of research at the Norwegian Polar Institute. So now, instead of relying on blogs or the Magic Café, you can find out right from the front lines of research. John
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats |
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tommy Eternal Order Devil's Island 16544 Posts |
Think of them poor Polarbears, they must be freezing to death.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.
Tommy |
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magicfish Inner circle 7006 Posts |
Polar bears are thriving here in Canada. In fact there are so many here I believe we lifted the hunting ban on them a few years ago. Whether it is reenacted I don't know.
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