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Louis Lu New user 58 Posts 
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Ekgdoc, great example to show Byrnes is wrong.
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Tosca New user Hettimorth Tentenchuihnn, RGA 91 Posts
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Quote:
On 2011-08-26 14:27, slyhand wrote: Similar here. He knows it's game over. 
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Louis Lu New user 58 Posts
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Quote:
On 2011-08-26 14:27, R.E. Byrnes wrote: Guessing the card isn't part of ACAAN. |
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Tosca New user Hettimorth Tentenchuihnn, RGA 91 Posts
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Quote:
On 2011-08-26 14:29, Louis Lu wrote: Louis - it is the same as my previous example (but he didn't get that either): Quote:
On 2011-08-26 13:10, Tosca wrote: |
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R.E. Byrnes Inner circle 1206 Posts
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"Guessing the card isn't part of ACAAN."
Choosing it is -- one of three in your example. Then another one of three when the number is selected. The are the ssame thing. There is no difference between how the card is selected and how the number is selected. Each depends on the other. Perhaps someone authoritative will weigh in on this and settle it. |
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j100taylor Inner circle 1198 Posts
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R.E. Byrnes - maybe you are a good magician - but you are a lousy mathematician...
Lakewood, Ohio
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TomasB Inner circle Sweden 1144 Posts
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The easiest way to describe it is that you need 2704 predictions which are all equally likely to be needed. A deck of cards is not a single prediction. It covers 52 predictions which is 1/52 of all possible 2704 outcomes.
/Tomas |
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slyhand Inner circle Good ole Virginia 1908 Posts
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Thought it was established that it's 1 in 52 each time. Guess not.
I am getting so tired of slitting the throats of people who say that I am a violent psychopath.
Alec |
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ekgdoc Regular user 110 Posts
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I should point out that using the JQK deck, there are 9 possible number/card combinations (1J, 1Q, 1K, 2J, 2Q, 2K, 3J, 3Q, 3K). But the magician only needs 3 decks to account for these 9 possible combinations.
Dsvid M. |
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R.E. Byrnes Inner circle 1206 Posts
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"The easiest way to describe it is that you need 2704 predictions which are all equally likely to be needed. A deck of cards is not a single prediction. It covers 52 predictions which is 1/52 of all possible 2704 outcomes."
if you were just asking them to pick a deck. but you're not. you're asking them, first, to pick a card. then, a number, effectively a second card from a second deck. |
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Tosca New user Hettimorth Tentenchuihnn, RGA 91 Posts
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Quote:
On 2011-08-26 14:33, TomasB wrote: Nice angle. |
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Louis Lu New user 58 Posts
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Quote:
On 2011-08-26 14:35, ekgdoc wrote: Make it easier. How about a two card deck? Red and black. Now is it obvious that 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4 is incorrect? The correct probability is 1/2. |
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Tosca New user Hettimorth Tentenchuihnn, RGA 91 Posts
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Again - I've already given that example:
Quote:
On 2011-08-26 12:35, Tosca wrote: |
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TomasB Inner circle Sweden 1144 Posts
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Burnes,
Picking a deck; that is a great idea to advance the plot: A red, green and blue deck is on the table. They pick a deck, a card and a number. We can claim to the spectators that the probability of succeeding is 1/8112 but of course it is still 1/52. /Tomas |
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magic.mind Loyal user 247 Posts
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Quote:
On 2011-08-26 14:33, TomasB wrote: check this version http://amirasacaan.blogspot.com/ |
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Claudio Inner circle Europe 1946 Posts
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Quote:
On 2011-08-26 14:41, Louis Lu wrote: I can't see any come back to that! |
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R.E. Byrnes Inner circle 1206 Posts
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"Make it easier. How about a two card deck? Red and black. Now is it obvious that 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4 is incorrect? The correct probability is 1/2."
No; that is in fact identical to flipping two coins, where two consecutive heads is 1/4, but the second one -- after the first one has already been determined to be heads -- is in fact 1/2. but that's not the whole event; it's just one of the two. we're just going to continue to talk in circles unless someone who we both regard as authoritative offers a conclusion. I've asked someone who I think would qualify, but have no idea if he will be willing. in any even, I consider the matter submitted. my view is that there are two independent probabilities. the alternate view is that the first selection is a given. here's hoping we'll get that closure. |
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R.E. Byrnes Inner circle 1206 Posts
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"Make it easier. How about a two card deck? Red and black. Now is it obvious that 1/2 * 1/2 = 1/4 is incorrect? The correct probability is 1/2.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------- I can't see any come back to that! " it's just like the erroneously structured three-deck example above. to get both the color and position, you have to make two, independent selections. red or black, 1 or 2. if you can't see how that is the same thing as flipping a coin twice, there are lots of websites that explain binary probatilities. |
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Tosca New user Hettimorth Tentenchuihnn, RGA 91 Posts
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We don't need to appeal to a third ('authoritative') person to resolve this. Maths itself is the authority.
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iceblade Loyal user 254 Posts
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Must... fight... it...
Quote:
On 2011-08-26 14:56, Tosca wrote: Actually, as you previously said, elementary school math
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Posted: Aug 26, 2011 06:29 pm 
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