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The Magic Cafe Forum Index » » Not very magical, still... » » We are out of time (0 Likes) Printer Friendly Version

tommy
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Eternal Order
Devil’s Island
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Well not quite....we have about a month left to build a shelter

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hzz0V2GwMvI
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
Bill Hilly
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Oh man! Look's like old Harold is correct about Oct. 21. Smile

Did you notice how many times she had to hold back laughing, and at the end she said, "... these are very interesting things. We appreciate your helping us make light of them."

"It's not what you say, it's what they hear."
Tom Jorgenson
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At least it will give the nutjobs something to think about besides politics.
We dance an invisible dance to music they cannot hear.
tommy
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Eternal Order
Devil’s Island
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What is nutty about it?
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
MobilityBundle
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Glad you asked. Here are some reactions to what he says in the link you provided. From here out, I'm quoting Agnew in the video, indicating the time at which he's making the statement.

Quote:
1:18: "There's a lot of missing data on this comet."

What data? There's arguably always "a lot" of missing data for just about anything astronomical... for example, we can't account for every atom in the comet. But he doesn't say what the missing data is, nor how it would improve any trajectory estimates.

Quote:
1:28: "Others [besides NASA] are saying that it doesn't look like a comet, it doesn't act like a comet, it's coming in from an area that comets don't normally originate from."

Who are these others? In what way does it not "look" or "act" like a comet? Regardless, unless it has its own independent source of thrust (which Agnew does not imply), its trajectory is still determined by its mass and the masses of the stuff around it. And that's what the NASA trajectory calculation is based on.

Quote:
1:45: "There are a lot of things about this comet that don't make sense."

Like what? Even taking at face value his assertion about the unusual place this comet originate from, it's a stretch to say it "doesn't make sense" for it to originate from any particular region of the universe. Statistically improbable? Maybe. Doesn't make sense? I think not.

Quote:
1:49: "Couple that with the arrival of a very large asteroid ... and the launch of the new emergency alert system on the same day ... and you have some very strange coincidences..."

Okay, coincidences...

Quote:
2:11 [Interviewer: So what are you trying to say?]

"It's a much bigger picture. As our solar system nears the galactic plane of our galaxy ... it seems there is a historical record that some very cataclysmic things happen at this time."


A few reactions:

1. It's not clear what these "very cataclysmic" things are.

2. Even taking at face value that very cataclysmic things do happen when we enter the galactic plane, there are tons of other times when very cataclysmic things happen. Thus, the ole' distinction between correlation and causation. And indeed, even the "correlation" part isn't that great with respect to certain "cataclysmic things" like ice ages. See http://iopscience.iop.org/1538-4357/705/2/L101/pdf/1538-4357_705_2_L101.pdf.

Quote:
2:58 "Those of us who have been watching the cosmological signs, the geological signs, the oceanographic signs have been showing that there is the trend that the ancients said would happen."

[Interviewer: What signs? Earthquakes, floods, hurricanes, natural disasters?]

3:17: "Yes, taken by themselves, they seem rather innocuous, but when you put them all together it fits a neat pattern of some other gravitational forces or some other higher frequencies entering our solar system that we haven't faced before."


Another few reactions:

1. Wait a sec. He started with "we're entering the galactic plane," which is a cosmological thing. And we're talking about asteroids and comets, which is also a cosmological thing. Now he's talking about geological signs and oceanographic signs? The physics governing geological and oceanographic developments have nothing to do with where we are with respect to the galactic plane.

2. Is there any evidence that the recent earthquake, hurricane, flood, etc. activity is abnormal? And even if it is, is there any causal link between geological / oceanographic activity and asteroids / comets? Perhaps, as to the first question... but certainly not, as to the second.

3. So he's endorsing "the ancients," and not pushing his own analysis. Noted.

4. With regard to the "neat pattern," this is where he reveals that he has absolutely no idea about science. The sources of "other gravitational forces" are super easy to detect. Gravity is the weakest known force in the universe. In some sense, it's about 10^36 times weaker than the electrostatic force. If these "other gravitational forces" are significant enough to effect flood, hurricane, or other such activity, then they're coming from a giant frickin' object. Consider the moon, for example. Pretty big object, pretty close to us. And its gravity only gives us tides -- a gentle eight foot peak-to-peak swing. Not a hurricane, flood, or other natural disaster.

Okay, so maybe he didn't mean gravity per se. That's why he covered himself with "other higher frequencies"? This phrase is literally nonsense. The term "frequency" means something. A wave can have a frequency. Periodic phenomena have a frequency. In that context, "higher frequency" just means more frequent. It's not a cause, it's an effect. He's talking about "higher frequencies" that are putatively causing something.

Quote:
3:48: "What we should be aware of is that the projections by JPL are highly estimated." (emphasis original)


Yeah? Let's look at the NASA / JPL report:

http://ssd.jpl.nasa.gov/sbdb.cgi?sstr=C/2010+X1;cad=1#cad

At the bottom, there's a section entitled "Close-Approach Data," which lists the minimum distance as 0.233845306432999 AU, which is over 21.7 million miles, about 90 times the mean Earth-Moon distance, and just a bit closer to us than Venus. Note, BTW, that this number is reported with fifteen -- count 'em, fifteen -- significant digits. It's based on 2219 observations made over 235 days going back to Dec. 2010. That's a staggering amount of precision. In more easily understandable terms, if you're measuring out a meter with that level of precision, then your error term is on the order of a few atomic radii. They don't give the uncertainty of those predictions, but in the "orbital elements" section up top, you can see the uncertainties of other salient aspects of the orbit, and you'll see that theme repeated.

Quote:
3:58: "There are a lot of forces working on this comet as it travels through our solar system at a very odd angle and not all of them have been calculated. So we're kind of making a guess as to where this thing's going to end up."


Oy. First, the odd angle has nothing to do with it. That's the nice thing about our current understanding of physics... we kind of know how gravity works from any angle. Yay!

Second, it's true that not all the forces have been calculated. I doubt that the net charge of the comet has been measured, for example. But the point is, we're really good at calculating astronomical trajectories, because it's actually a relatively simple problem. Gravity is the main force. If you want to get fancy -- and NASA certainly gets fancy -- there's also radiation pressure from the solar wind. There's probably ten or twenty other little tweaks that only start showing up in the eighth decimal place. But when Agnew says "we're kind of making a guess," it's not like there are three guys sitting around a chalkboard scratching their head. It's a "guess" based on 2219 observations.

Okay, that's all I have the patience for. I'm going to be charitable with the rest of the video (talking about more traditional government conspiracy stuff involving underground shelters). Oh, except this, which I found kind of funny:

Quote:
5:29: "NASA's little video warning that went out to all the family of NASA employees to [have an emergency plan]."


Okay, so this imminent comet impact is a big secret conspiracy, but the family of NASA employees are clued in on it? C'mon. In reality, I'm guessing "NASA's little video warning" is the same thing that you get at ANY big company, about general disaster preparedness.
tommy
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That's what Alex Jones said.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
irossall
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Chicken Little told me that 12-21-12 is the day we all will meet our maker.
Iven Smile
Give the gift of Life, Be an Organ Donor.
critter
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Spokane, WA
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I could go for a little chicken...
"The fool is one who doesn't know what you have just found out."
~Will Rogers
Payne
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Seattle
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Quote:
On 2011-09-09 12:26, irossall wrote:
Chicken Little told me that 12-21-12 is the day we all will meet our maker.
Iven Smile


My mother is coming over for the holidays? Thanks for the warning.
"America's Foremost Satirical Magician" -- Jeff McBride.
1tepa1
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Quote:
On 2011-09-09 13:18, Payne wrote:
Quote:
On 2011-09-09 12:26, irossall wrote:
Chicken Little told me that 12-21-12 is the day we all will meet our maker.
Iven Smile


My mother is coming over for the holidays? Thanks for the warning.


No you are silly, he meant the big bang.
tommy
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Eternal Order
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If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
Magnus Eisengrim
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Sulla placed heads on
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Quote:
On 2011-09-09 12:26, irossall wrote:
Chicken Little told me that 12-21-12 is the day we all will meet our maker.
Iven Smile


There is some belief that the basic chemicals necessary for life were deposited here by a comet. Perhaps we've come full ellipse on this one.

John
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats
Bill Hilly
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Quote:
On 2011-09-09 12:30, critter wrote:
I could go for a little chicken...

and some of them there mashed taters, umm hmm.
critter
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Some folk call it a sling chicken. I calls it a rubber chicken.
"The fool is one who doesn't know what you have just found out."
~Will Rogers
Bill Hilly
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Now that is funny.

I love it when a joke comes together.
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