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splice Inner circle Canada 1246 Posts 
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Quote:
On 2011-12-12 13:33, thelearner wrote: Fine, you want to make the claim, prove it. A bet on black is 47.37% to win and pays even money on a table with 0/00. This means that the EV of a $1 bet is: (0.4737 * $1) + (0.5263 * -$1) = -$0.0526 Now you get to blow our minds by showing us how multiplying -$0.0526 by different (positive) factors makes it transform into a positive number. Alternatively, the house edge is 5.26%, meaning each bets mathematically returns 94.74% of the bet. Show us how 94.74% of a certain number somehow equals to over 100% of that same number. |
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silverking Inner circle 4574 Posts
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It's always straight into the crapper right after the statement "I was playing Roulette, and..........."
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Zagam New user Silver Spring, Maryland 64 Posts
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The math is really easy. If the wheel was just red and black, the odds would be 50/50. So in the long run, you'd break even. But wheels have 0 and 00. So the odds are less than 50/50, in the long run you're down. There is no way to make money at this game. Unless you put it all on 41, I have a feeling about that number.
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mightydog Regular user Michigan now living in the Florida panha 156 Posts
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On 2011-11-27 13:52, silverking wrote: Can you really believe that NO ONE wins at the casinos? [/quote] Nowhere did I say that, or imply it. Quote:
How does that happen if one can NEVER beats the odds? People win at the casinos all the time. They are paid with the money that losers have lost. A winner plays and wins 10$. A loser plays and loses 12$ The House takes the 12$ from the loser gives it to the winner and pockets the remaining 2$. The 2$ representing the house advantage. Actual percentage may vary but the idea remains the same.
Illusion and magic is the same, if it was possible to achieve the impossible by genuine powers then it wouldn’t be impossible and therefore it wouldn’t be magic. That’s why magic is an art; the art of creating the illusion of the impossible.
Raphael Benatar mightydog David |
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silverking Inner circle 4574 Posts
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Oh the humanity.............
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Tony45 Veteran user 384 Posts
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On 2011-12-12 18:23, silverking wrote: I have been known to take an occasional shot at the wheel. :-( |
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silverking Inner circle 4574 Posts
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Tony, I read Scarne's big casino gambling book as a kid, and I guess that 5.26% he kept repeating over and over imprinted on me in such a way as to cause discomfort whenever I stand near a Roulette table.
Reading some posts in this thread though, you can certainly see why the casinos rake in billions of dollars in profits each year. Most folks really don't have a clue. |
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splice Inner circle Canada 1246 Posts
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And that's just the people who fancy themselves to be sharps. Just imagine how many people truly don't care and are just feeling it, tonight's going to be the night, for sure.
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Dannydoyle Eternal Order 21245 Posts
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My wife has a perfect system I am looking that I am looking for a name for.
We were in the Dominican Republic playing Blackjack and hit a streak that really was uncomfortable as it seemed the dealer could have hit a 20 and got an ace. But I pressed on just playing. Well while the dealer is in a shuffle of the decks she wanders over to the Roulette table. Every time she walks past one she says "I should play 14", the day of her birthday. Well she puts down $5 on 14 and comes back to the Blackjack table with something like $175 bucks or whatever it was. (I am not in the mood to figure the exact number and ask if she played anything else.) She NAILED it! One bet, one hit and WOW was she ahead! I am thinking of calling the system "Dumb Luck". Which is what I think you must depend upon if you wish to win at that game.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus <BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell |
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Dannydoyle Eternal Order 21245 Posts
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On 2011-12-12 13:33, thelearner wrote: I suggest a bit more "learning" on your part when it comes to math. Seriously dude the 0 and the 00 are irrelevant? SERIOUSLY? Let me put it like this, Reading may be fundimental, but comprehension is an advanced skill. Well let me ask this why does adding 2 numbers to the wheel and such NOT change the math?
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus <BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell |
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LobowolfXXX Inner circle La Famiglia 1196 Posts
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I think the comment about the zeros not nattering was purely theoretical. It's true that IF you had an unlimited amount of money AND there were no table limit, then a Martingale would work fine. You'd always show a profit, and the only way you'd lose would be if if you literally died at the table before your color hit. In fact, it would be the easiest way ever to become a billionaire; just make your initial bet a billion dollars, and start doubling from there.
In the real world, however...
"Torture doesn't work" lol
Guess they forgot to tell Bill Buckley. "...as we reason and love, we are able to hope. And hope enables us to resist those things that would enslave us." |
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silverking Inner circle 4574 Posts
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I guess the only response to partial purely theoretical logic is to note that casinos understood very early on what 50/50% looked like, and further realized that they couldn't make an obscene profit taking peoples money using those odds.
So they fixed it with things like 0 and 00, and then topped it off with table-limits.......which sort of set the stage for contemporary casino gambling concepts like "odds always in favor of the house", and table limits to effectively kill "cancellation betting systems". Viewing only the narrow portions of a gambling scenario (in this case, Roulette) such that your chosen observations are selected only because they support your argument (I realize it's not your argument Lobo) is not only pointless, it's a complete and total waste of time and energy. At the end of the day, the world is full of rakes like Mr. Mystoffelees, mightydog, and thelearner.........and the casino's love them!.......one or two of those guys may eventually wise-up, one or two won't.......and so it goes. |
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Cagliostro Inner circle 2478 Posts
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Ouch! All this theory is hurting my head.
If anyone on this board believes he can beat the roulette wheel with a progression system, then my suggestion is for him to take his money and all he can beg, borrow and steal and play the system in a casino for about 10,000 decisions. The reality of that “real world” experience should be a much more potent (and financially painful) lesson than an objective discussion of the math. Some people can only learn from experience. You can scientifically explain to someone that if he holds his hand in boiling water, he will suffer serious damage to his hand and experience considerable pain. Yet, there will always be someone who has to disagree with the theory and try it out for himself. This tongue in cheek example may be extreme, but the principle is the same. If anyone believes that a progression systems works again a negative expectation in Roulette, despite all the scientific evidence to the contrary, then he should put his money where his mouth is and see what happens. |
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NFS Regular user 186 Posts
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Progression to depression.
"A gambler without a system is as a ship without a compass."
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Tony45 Veteran user 384 Posts
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On 2011-12-13 08:53, silverking wrote: I read it also when I was young, lol. Truth is I will take a shot on the wheel but I play it my own way. I play a 7 number section and start a nickel a number and if I hit, the whole payoff goes back into the section, if I get lucky I got some money, and the third bet I stick it in again and it gets interesting or I walk away. I usually never go for more than $200 and I have made some very nice scores. But to sit there and play the game for any length of time, forget it, you get chewed up like theres no tomorrow. Do I think its a good game ? NO. But the payoff has been there for me on many occasions so I take my shot now and then. lol Hell, I deal the game, I see more people lose than anything else but the thing with 99% of wheel players is they never give themselves a chance to win, they never press anything and theyre scared stiff to bet, disgusting. |
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iamslow Inner circle Proffessional Slacker 2001 Posts
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There's a casino in mexico that offers three to one on the 2-12 for craps field bets... this cuts the edge to zero... maybe some of you martingales can go up there and play for a better chance at winning your first bet...
"Everyone has a plan till they get punched in the face" Mike Tyson
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NFS Regular user 186 Posts
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Traveling to Mexico these days is -EV.
"A gambler without a system is as a ship without a compass."
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silverking Inner circle 4574 Posts
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Quote:
On 2011-12-13 17:46, NFS wrote: I'd rather go to Somalia to gamble: http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/44282514/ns/......T85i6C18 |
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Posted: Dec 12, 2011 07:51 pm 
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