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tommy Eternal Order Devil’s Island 16249 Posts 
I know the US law well enough to know one can't seem to do anything without breaking it.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.
Tommy 

rockwall Special user 763 Posts 
24, Stone's comments pretty much match up with my experience. (Minus the German citizen parts)!


mastermindreader V.I.P. Seattle, WA 12589 Posts 
Quote:
On 20111211 05:19, balducci wrote: It doesn't matter since he only took the test once. By chance, the odds are that he would have gotten 7 or 8 answers correct. BUT the odds are actually against chance that he would get a chance level score on just a single run through. The law of large numbers applies. (For example, flip a coin just ten times. I will bet you that you DON'T get five heads and five tails.) Good thoughts, Bob 

balducci Loyal user Canada 230 Posts 
Yes BUT if critter was truly guessing randomly then the number correct was a binomial random variable with 30 trials and common probability of success on each trial equal to 0.25. The expected number correct was 7.5. The MOST LIKELY outcome (the mode) on his single play was 7 (with a probability of 0.1662357). That is all mathematically true, even for a single play of the game. If you can bet only on a single number, then 7 is the number to bet on.
Anyway, my earlier comment was obviously nontechnical. Besides which, the comment about the lottery was a joke.
Make America Great Again!  Trump in 2020 ... "We're a capitalistic society. I go into business, I don't make it, I go bankrupt. They're not going to bail me out. I've been on welfare and food stamps. Did anyone help me? No."  Craig T. Nelson, actor.


mastermindreader V.I.P. Seattle, WA 12589 Posts 
You're right, of course. But, like I said, the law of large numbers nonetheless applies. That is why I am likely to win if I bet that you do not get five heads and five tails on JUST ten tosses of a coin, even though the odds on each toss are 50/50.
I like discussions of probability, that's the only reason I posted my otherwise minor and somewhat offtopic comment. I would, however, agree with your suggestion that he play the lottery. After all, ya can't win if ya don't play! (Of course, you can't lose if you don't play either, but I've never let rational analysis get in my way when I'm on a lucky streak.) Good thoughts, Bob 

balducci Loyal user Canada 230 Posts 
It's all good. By the way ... critter said that he scored 17 out of 30 by randomly guessing (from his point of view, anyway) ... the probability that he would score 17 or more correct out of 30 (in the sense of 30 independent trials each with 0.25 chance of success) by guessing is only 0.000216 or 0.02 per cent. Like, 1 in 4626. (Unless I messed up the calculation, but I don't think so.)
I'll take critter's word that he guessed, but I suspect there was more to it (either he subconsciously ruled out some incorrect answers, or somehow tapped into some pattern that was in the correct answers (e.g., A, C, D, B, A, C, D, B,)).
Make America Great Again!  Trump in 2020 ... "We're a capitalistic society. I go into business, I don't make it, I go bankrupt. They're not going to bail me out. I've been on welfare and food stamps. Did anyone help me? No."  Craig T. Nelson, actor.


mastermindreader V.I.P. Seattle, WA 12589 Posts 
Odd trivia from my life:
Once, many years ago, I took college achievement test in Hebrew. I don't speak or read Hebrew, but be looking for similar word patterns in the questions and multiple choice answers I actually achieved a passing score on the test even though I couldn't read the questions or the answers. Before I took the bar exam (1978) I took a special preparatory course. We were advised that if we were unsure of a multiple choice answer to always select "C". It turns out that the way the test was scored, if a large percentage of those taking the test gave a particular answer to a question, even if it was wrong, that the answer would be scored as correct nonetheless. Don't know if it was true, but I did answer "C" quite a few times and managed to pass the exam on my first try. 

stoneunhinged Inner circle 3079 Posts 
Well Bob, maybe you're just a bit psychic.


thorndyke Regular user Canada 147 Posts 
23, didn't think I'd do that well.


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