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Slim King Eternal Order Orlando 18012 Posts |
Sorry for the delay .. I actually purchased Jerome Finely's manuscript and I'll be reading it very soon.
To answer your questions, I never read through the suggestions before the experiment. I hadn't picked up the book in a year. I simply asked them to think of three numbers AFTER envisioning me handing them cash or somehow winning a bet. They were instructed to think of the two teams ( In all honesty I didn't see either team play in the season...I never watched a game until the Super Bowl)... They then picked the numbers and I looked up the area of the book that gave the associative words and read it to them. Two people... Chris and John picked numbers that totaled the same. I think everyone else was different.
THE MAN THE SKEPTICS REFUSE TO TEST FOR ONE MILLION DOLLARS.. The Worlds Foremost Authority on Houdini's Life after Death.....
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TomasB Inner circle Sweden 1144 Posts |
So you don't know if _any_ of the nine words lists would have been associated by anyone with the 49ers?
The six lists you read to them were all associated with the Ravens. That leaves three lists, and these too _could_ perhaps be associated with the Ravens? Either way, we know for sure that 67% of the lists were associated with the Ravens in this case. The number could be larger. I estimate that this experiment would have succeeded with a probability of at least 25%. /Tomas |
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Slim King Eternal Order Orlando 18012 Posts |
Not sure, but with the 49 ers favored two out of three it would have made logical sense to have cheated towards that team rather than against it. If possible. But these pages were written over 50 years ago and I altered nothing.
It was written BEFORE THEY HAD SUPER BOWLS !!!!
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Slim King Eternal Order Orlando 18012 Posts |
There are 11ists I believe. 1-9 ,11,22. I think we selected from six of them. This was written before the 49ers and the Ravens existed I'm pretty sure!
It was all done BEFORE the game... No subtrafuge!
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0pus Inner circle New Jersey 1739 Posts |
So the six selected lists has "Ravens" in them?
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TomasB Inner circle Sweden 1144 Posts |
How do you reach 11 or 22? Don't you take the digital root (modulo 9) of the sum of the three named numbers, so you always end up on a number from 0 to 8 (or 1 to 9, if you want to define 9 mod 9 = 9).
Opus, I don't think any of the lists had the word Ravens in it. It's just lists of words and the person says if the list best associates with Ravens or 49ers. If a list has an animal in it or words associated with air, sky, flight, freedom, black, etc etc, I'd guess it's easier to feel that it indicates Ravens than 49ers. /Tomas |
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0pus Inner circle New Jersey 1739 Posts |
Quote:
On 2013-02-21 14:35, TomasB wrote: So 7 out of 7 people found the lists related more to a living thing (a Raven) than to a number (49). That's PARANORMAL!!! :dancing: |
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Slim King Eternal Order Orlando 18012 Posts |
Seven individuals came to the conclusion that the THOUGHT DIAL was selecting the Baltimore Ravens would win the Super Bowl .... ( despite their personal convictions about the game as some felt personally that the San Fransisco 49 ers would win) all this done and proclaimed BEFORE THE GAME !
Really amazing stuff. I would challenge the best Mentalist here to duplicate this 2186 to 1 feat TWICE !!!!
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Slim King Eternal Order Orlando 18012 Posts |
Quote: BTW. You are a bit out of sync. The 49 ers Are living creatures. HUMANS.
On 2013-02-21 15:03, 0pus wrote: LOL
THE MAN THE SKEPTICS REFUSE TO TEST FOR ONE MILLION DOLLARS.. The Worlds Foremost Authority on Houdini's Life after Death.....
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0pus Inner circle New Jersey 1739 Posts |
Quote:
On 2013-02-21 16:03, Slim King wrote: I am in violent AGREEMENT! |
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Michael Daniels Inner circle Isle of Man 1609 Posts |
Slim - if I understand this correctly, seven people sent you three numbers which YOU then used to determine whether the resulting number indicated the Ravens or the 49rs. It wasn't seven people themselves independently selecting the teams.
It is therefore possible that once YOU had interpreted the first person's number as indicating the Ravens rather than the 49rs, you may have been more likely to interpret the subsequent numbers as also indicating the Ravens - so it possibly became a self-perpetuating conclusion. It is impossible to calculate odds in this kind of situation, other than to suggest that the odds are 50:50 (i.e., you may have been inclined to interpret all seven readings as indicating the Ravens, or all readings as indicating the 49rs). Mike |
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owen.daniel Inner circle England 1048 Posts |
Hi Mike.
Slim did in fact allow the people to reach their own decision: he read out the words that are associated to each of the possible numbers, and then allowed them to make a decision. As we've noted already though, the types of words that are being given are somewhat emotive, and so it would seem highly probable to me that people would choose the Ravens over the 49ers... Here is the list that was read out to the first person (give or take a few errors from not hearing the audio properly...but no substantial changes): sun, independence, leader, origin, speculation, love, theatre, bell of the ball, ego, startling, fortunate, children, anything new, startling, sexy. Now I'm not a football fan (and Slim insists he isn't either), so I cannot possibly say whether the 49ers actually has a clear interpretation, but for me it is much easier to associate Ravens to that list of words. As a matter of fact if somebody pushed me I could come up with a link between ravens and all of those words... but probably would struggle to match even one of the words to the term 49 or 49ers. Slim, You mention that if you had wanted to cheat then you'd have gotten everybody to say 49ers as they were odds on favourites. I disagree. If I was wanting to do such an effect I would want everybody to vote on the underdog: that way if all 7 people say Ravens and they go on to win then one can claim that there is a paranormal link. On the other hand if they lose then its no big deal anyway. On the other hand if you just confirm that 7 people unanimously decided that the odds on favourite would win... well that's not so impressive is it. I'm not saying this is what you did, but I am saying that if I wanted to do this as a mentalist using trickery then that would be the effect I would go for. Owen |
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Slim King Eternal Order Orlando 18012 Posts |
Great thinking Owen. I'm glad you agree that it was even more amazing that the Ravens DID win! Please remember. ... Emotive or not, these words were written BEFORE. Either team existed and before any Super Bowl had been played. I simply read what Sydney OMARR had written decades ago.
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owen.daniel Inner circle England 1048 Posts |
Slim,
I'm not certain that you are quoting me correctly, though perhaps I misunderstood your reply: I have no knowledge as to how amazing the win was, as I said I do not follow American football (being British I am following the rugby 6 nations though...), so I do not know to what extent they were the underdogs, and what's more how improbable it was that they would win. What I do agree with however is that if we view this as a magic trick, then to create a good effect you would want everybody to vote for the underdogs, as this is seemingly less likely to happen. Of course if this were a magic trick then presumably you could actually have chosen which way you wanted this to play out, and you could equally as well have made it so that they all chose the 49ers. Just because the book was written decades ago does not absolve you from any role. For instance, had you wanted more people to say 49ers you could have given a description of what the name actually means (something I didn't know until a few minutes ago). If you described on air that the name comes from the gold rush, and you spoke about the history of the people who travelled there, and the death of the native americans... then you could have built a stronger emotional link to that team. Owen |
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TomasB Inner circle Sweden 1144 Posts |
Slim,
If you call it amazing that a team wins, that has more probability of winning than flipping two heads in a row, it doesn't take much to impress you, does it? /Tomas |
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Slim King Eternal Order Orlando 18012 Posts |
Quote: Are you saying that the Odds Makers were wrong and that Martin Gardner was also wrong?
On 2013-02-22 10:00, TomasB wrote: 3 to the power of 7 correct? That's 2187. Correct?
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TomasB Inner circle Sweden 1144 Posts |
The oddsmaker said that the probability of them winning was 0.33, right? Flipping two heads have a probability of 0.25, right? 0.33 is bigger than 0.25, right? You are amazed that the Ravens won, right? Something that has a larger probability of happening than throwing two heads amazes you.
Did I misunderstand something about what you thought was amazing? I trust the oddsmakers. Not sure what Gardner has said in the matter, so I don't know. Can you tell me? You are correct that 3^7=2187, but that has nothing to do with any matters here, which you know since you read Owen's posts. /Tomas |
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Slim King Eternal Order Orlando 18012 Posts |
That's not true. Seven out of seven is in itself quite amazing. ... But then to have the Underdog actually WIN when predicted using a Paranormal Divination Tool is totally amazing....
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owen.daniel Inner circle England 1048 Posts |
Slim,
Saying that this is totally amazing seems to somewhat belittle your belief in the process. If you believe in the power of the Thought Dial, then the probability that all of you thought of the Ravens, and that the Ravens went on to win would be 1... i.e. 100% likely to happen. So perhaps it could be amazing in the sense of how strange our universe is, but it is no longer amazing from a probabilistic point of view. If, however you don't believe that the Thought Dial has any particular power, but rather it is just an odd curiosity that 7 people happened to choose the same team, and that team went on to win (independently of the 7 people's guess), then we return to the fact that calculating these odds is not really doable, and from what I can see the number 2187 has nothing to do with even the most basic way of modeling this (the only model for which this would be valid is if one takes the hypothesis that with probability 1/3 somebody would choose the underdog). However, one thing to note is that in probabilistic terms, assuming that the people's predictions and the outcome were not correlated then it is true that the probability of both the Raven's winning and all 7 people saying the Ravens is somewhat low... independence allows you to multiply probabilities, and since the numbers are all less than 1 the more you multiply the lower the probability becomes... So assuming that the probability that the Raven's would win was around 1/3, then the probability that this happened and all 7 people chose the Ravens is 1/3 * Prob[ A given individual independently chose the Ravens]^7 Exactly how unlikely this is depends entirely on how random the selections were. This is where my issue comes in. I believe that you conducted the experiment fairly. I do not think you were in this to achieve a magic effect, but rather to conduct an experiment. But I do however think that the book is biased towards people saying the Ravens, as I explained in my previous post. To be at all quantitative here I have to now make a complete guess (so the following numbers are certainly not correct but serve to illustrate a point): personally I think that the lists were so suggestive of the Ravens that 95% of people would have said the ravens after hearing the lists. So working with these numbers we obtain 1/3 * 0.95^7 = 0.23... which is a little under 1/4. What is important to note here is that this number differs from 1/3 by around 0.1. Very loosely speaking this is saying that the actual effect of your experiment has a lower order of significance to the overall probability than the significance of the fact that the Ravens actually won. Owen |
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Slim King Eternal Order Orlando 18012 Posts |
Owen
Thanks for the interest. When this happened in 2010 Martin Gardner suggested I get someone familiar with the odds. I selected Mark Glickman, a professor at Boston University. I even flew to Boston and met with him. He is the one who did the calculations. I haven't made my decision as to exactly how Paranormal the Thought Dial is but it certainly looks amazing !!! 2013 was almost exactly the same! Again, part of its cosmsic craziness.
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