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The Magic Cafe Forum Index » » Not very magical, still... » » What climate change????? (0 Likes) Printer Friendly Version

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Kune
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Quote:
On 2013-02-08 15:02, Magnus Eisengrim wrote:
Quote:
On 2013-02-08 14:56, Kune wrote:
Quote:
On 2013-02-08 14:45, Magnus Eisengrim wrote:
Quote:
if you want to read more, I suggest http://wattsupwiththat.com/2012/07/18/wh......sts-say/




And here's the joke of it all. Many people--including you apparently--put more stock in the opinions of a retired TV weatherman than they do in the results of climate science.


I did a Google search to get the actual figures, and that was the first website to come up - if the figures are in anyway incorrect, let me know.
....you're right that you can't trust weather men though - they're all being paid off by big oil.


LOL I suspect that Anthony Watts is very sincere in his beliefs about weather, climate and climate change. I simply trust genuine climate experts more than I trust Anthony Watts.

The 97% figure is a red herring. What does the data say? What are the most coherent models telling us? That's what really counts.


Presently they're telling us that from 1997 to 2012, we've had 0.05c of warming
http://metofficenews.wordpress.com/2012/......er-2012/
Marlin1894
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....you're right that you can't trust weather men though - they're all being paid off by big oil.


Maybe. But then again, so is Al Gore.

Don't worry though, I'm sure he'll buy a bunch of carbon offset credits from himself.
Pop Haydn
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"A recent analysis of papers appearing in peer-reviewed science journals shows published scientists to be virtually unanimous in their agreement that human-produced carbon dioxide emissions are a significant cause of global warming. You are free to disagree with my characterization of the consensus as "virtually unanimous," if you feel 99.83 percent doesn't qualify. There are, after all, almost two-tenths of one percent who dissent from the majority assessment.

"Oberlin College geologist Dr. James L. Powell reviewed 13,950 papers published between January, 1991 and early November, 2012, and found that a mere 24 of them dissented. That's .17 percent. 1 out of every 581. Powell further makes the point that those 24 were, on average, the least cited of the papers, saying, "Of one thing we can be certain: had any of these articles presented the magic bullet that falsifies human-caused global warming, that article would be on its way to becoming one of the most-cited in the history of science."

"This kind of finding is not new, though. A smaller meta-study, conducted by Naomi Oreskes in 2005, reviewed 985 papers published between 1993 and 2003, and found that none disagreed with the consensus about man-made climate change.

"The Powell findings alone represent the work of 33,690 authors. But what kind of consensus would you find if you skipped reading thoroughly vetted research papers and just walked up to members of the climate science community to ask them their convictions? Not shockingly, the results are very similar. A 2010 survey in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences asked some questions of "1,372 climate researchers... most actively publishing in the field..." and found that 97-98 percent accepted the idea of anthropogenic climate change. Further, the University of Illinois conducted a very similar survey in 2009 and came away with -- you guessed it -- similar results. 97 percent agreed man was warming the planet.

"So what do these overwhelming statistics mean? Let me put it this way: Your odds of knowing someone who believes aliens walk amongst us disguised as humans are twenty times greater than finding a climate skeptic in a group of climate scientists. Seriously.

And I'll bet the aliens would agree with the climate consensus!"

-- http://www.huffingtonpost.com/neil-wagne......715.html
Jonathan Townsend
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Every time we get into showing off other people's arguments on this topic, even with some imagined intent to "spread some word" or "call to action" - we are adding to the problem.

Every post costs electricity which is generated by heat/fuel and resources needed to save and view that post.

If you have something useful to offer, please do. What have you found that works well for you and yours? What can others learn from your example?
...to all the coins I've dropped here
Al Angello
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How many storms of the century have we had in the past ten years?????

How many forest fires of the century have we had?????

How many 500 year floods, and droughts have we had?????

Are they all just a coincidence?????
Al Angello The Comic Juggler/Magician
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LobowolfXXX
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Trick question...the century isn't much more than 10 years old.
"Torture doesn't work" lol
Guess they forgot to tell Bill Buckley.

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mastermindreader
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Quote:
On 2013-02-08 16:47, Jonathan Townsend wrote:
Every time we get into showing off other people's arguments on this topic, even with some imagined intent to "spread some word" or "call to action" - we are adding to the problem.

Every post costs electricity which is generated by heat/fuel and resources needed to save and view that post.

If you have something useful to offer, please do. What have you found that works well for you and yours? What can others learn from your example?


Last I checked, my computer uses the same amount of electricity whether I'm posting and/or saving something or not.
Kune
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On 2013-02-08 16:40, Pop Haydn wrote:
"A recent analysis of papers appearing in peer-reviewed science journals shows published scientists to be virtually unanimous in their agreement that human-produced carbon dioxide emissions are a significant cause of global warming. You are free to disagree with my characterization of the consensus as "virtually unanimous," if you feel 99.83 percent doesn't qualify. There are, after all, almost two-tenths of one percent who dissent from the majority assessment.

I mentioned this is an earlier post - it turns out 99.83 percent of scientists is actually less than 0.8%. Out of interest, does anyone know what percentage of scientists thought we were going into another ice age 30 or 40 years ago?


Quote:
Last I checked, my computer uses the same amount of electricity whether I'm posting and/or saving something or not.

Using a computer generally does take more electricity than leaving it idle - how much more depends on a lot of factors.
balducci
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On 2013-02-08 23:00, Kune wrote:

Using a computer generally does take more electricity than leaving it idle - how much more depends on a lot of factors.

Does it? I am not an electrical engineer ... but ... if a computer that is plugged and actively "on" (versus say in hibernation mode) in draws, say, 60W of power while it is turned on, isn't that a constant regardless of whether it is being used or being left to idle?

I thought it was a constant in the cases I described, but I may well be mistaken.
Make America Great Again! - Trump in 2020 ... "We're a capitalistic society. I go into business, I don't make it, I go bankrupt. They're not going to bail me out. I've been on welfare and food stamps. Did anyone help me? No." - Craig T. Nelson, actor.
mastermindreader
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Does an always-on light bulb use more power at night than it does in the daytime when the sun is shining in?

:eek:
Magnus Eisengrim
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On 2013-02-08 23:00, Kune wrote:

I mentioned this is an earlier post - it turns out 99.83 percent of scientists is actually less than 0.8%.



Not so fast.

The claim in the Watts blog is that 10,256 surveys were sent out. 3146 people responded to the survey and 77 were considered "expert" because of their recent publication history in climate science. Doran (in the original paper) then noted that 75 out of the 77 (97%) experts agreed with some claim or other about anthropogenic global warming. This is fair and honest. There may be questions about methodology, but this is all accurate.

To get 0.8% you appear to have divided the 75 expert respondents who agreed into the entire mailout number of 10,256 surveys. Wait a minute! How in the world are you able to determine that all 3069 of the respondents who did not qualify as experts disagreed with the statement? Worse yet, how can you claim that all 7110 people who did not respond also disagree with the statement?

Kune, do you really expect anyone to take this seriously?
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats
w_s_anderson
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Something strange must be going on in the world if Slide is gracing us with his presence again..... Smile Welcome Back
Slide
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Na... I'm selling my magic library. So while I'm here I stop in. Once the books are all sold I'll be gone for good.
Slide
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I have some good deals going though so check out the books for sale section.
acesover
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Lest see now.

It is Winter. I predict snow.

If not much it is climate change.

If lots it is climate change.

Seems like a win win.
If I were to agree with you. Then we would both be wrong. As of Apr 5, 2015 10:26 pm I have 880 posts. Used to have over 1,000
Al Angello
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Don't worry be happy, we can just kick that environmental thinky further down the road, and let our children pay the price for our denial.

Lobo
Should we assume that since we are in a new century all things that happened in the past don't count, or are you smoking your socks?????
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NicholasD
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On 2013-02-09 10:55, Al Angello wrote:
Don't worry be happy, we can just kick that environmental thinky further down the road, and let our children pay the price for our denial.




Just like you kicked that economy thingy down the road?

Couldn't resist, you left it right out there.
Al Angello
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Yes Nicholas
I love those cheap shots too.
Al Angello The Comic Juggler/Magician
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"Footprints on your ceiling are almost gone"
Kevin Connolly
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While we're kicking things down the road, please add the tremendous growing deficit.

At least we can forget about Benghazi. That has quietly been swept under the rug.
Please visit my website.
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Always looking buy or trade for original Houdini, Hardeen and escape artist items. I'm interested in books, pitchbooks and ephemera. Email [email]hhoudini@optonline.net[/email]
Magnus Eisengrim
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Quote:
On 2013-02-08 14:14, LobowolfXXX wrote:
With all the available anecdotal evidence out there, why pay scientists, anyway?


You should be in politics, Lobo! Think of the money you could rebate to large corporations! Brilliant!
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats
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