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The Magic Cafe Forum Index » » Not very magical, still... » » New Report on Global Warming » » TOPIC IS LOCKED (153 Likes) Printer Friendly Version

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Magnus Eisengrim
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We have run into problems in the past, by waiting too long to act. That's how we hunted the passenger pigeon to extinction, and nearly eradicated the plains bison. (We got very lucky with the bison.)

Greed and politics often get in the way of wise action.
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats
tommy
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What is most astounding about you is that your experts have long proven to be arrant failures at making predictions and yet you still with a straight face invite us to believe them.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
Magnus Eisengrim
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You're so cute tommy.

Which experts were wrong about what, and how is it relevant to climate science?
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats
Dannydoyle
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Well to be fair many of the doomsday scenarios have not come to pass.

As for the Bison, we didn't wait too long so it is not an example of waiting too long is it?

Also something like 99% of all species that have existed now don't. So it is not always our fault.

Doomsday prophecy is mixed with science making it less respectable unfortunately.

It is never too late or too soon to act responsibly. Both sides of this idiotic debate should learn that.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus
<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
Magnus Eisengrim
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As I mentioned before, we got lucky. They were believed to be comp,etely extinct, but a couple of tiny herds were found. The main herd, in fact, had been captured in an attempt to farm them. I would not confuse good luck for good management.

But the topic here is the IPCC report. The experts have been extraordinarily accurate in their assessments so far.
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats
Jonathan Townsend
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Quote:
On Sep 23, 2017, Magnus Eisengrim wrote:
Greed and politics often get in the way of wise action.


Prudence? Perhaps it's the mirror of guile?

You ate the pigeon? Shot the buffalo? But what if the shepherd protected all the sheep? All of them. Mutton is sin and mint jelly a sign of depravity? What if the gardener saved every bloom? Would the bees be the chosen ones? No? Not nice you say...as usual. So it's all about you...and forest fires are bad for property values...

Still confusing narcissism for nature.
...to all the coins I've dropped here
tommy
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We agree that your experts who have long proven to be arrant failures at making predictions are irrelevant.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
Magnus Eisengrim
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Quote:
On Sep 23, 2017, tommy wrote:
We agree that your experts who have long proven to be arrant failures at making predictions are irrelevant.


No examples, eh, tommy?

Anybody can make empty generalizations. But it's simply a bluff.

But what about the experts who wrote the IPCC report? Where were they arrant failures in their predictions?
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats
Jonathan Townsend
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On Sep 23, 2017, Dannydoyle wrote:
... Both sides of this idiotic debate should learn that.



But if either side admits to learning the debate becomes less about brands and could become investigative... then some folks might be uncomfortable...
...to all the coins I've dropped here
tommy
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One of your experts who reported to the United Nations’ Intergovernmental Panel on climate change (IPCC) and was contributing author and Co-manager of the IPCC Data Distribution Centre said, within a few years children just aren’t going to know what snow is. Snowfall will be a very rare and exciting event. By sheer luck, he says, I had landed in a good place at a good time. I gained a huge amount of experience very quickly: giving major presentations to IPCC members and undertaking a lot of media work for the Unit and UEA, including many live TV and radio interviews. I presented Inside Out for BBC1 and have had profile pieces written about me in Sunday newspapers.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
Magnus Eisengrim
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Can you be a bit more specific, tommy. Who said what when, and why does it show (s)he is an "arrant failure at prediction"? Do you have a link to the quotation in context?
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats
tommy
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David Viner, 2000 then a scientist at the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, he said that snow was going to become a rare event in a few years but when it does come it will be heavy and catch everybody out. Now incidentally he is working for a company which is building multi-Billion $ airports.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
landmark
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Quote:
On Sep 23, 2017, Jonathan Townsend wrote:
Quote:
On Sep 23, 2017, Magnus Eisengrim wrote:
Greed and politics often get in the way of wise action.


Prudence? Perhaps it's the mirror of guile?

You ate the pigeon? Shot the buffalo? But what if the shepherd protected all the sheep? All of them. Mutton is sin and mint jelly a sign of depravity? What if the gardener saved every bloom? Would the bees be the chosen ones? No? Not nice you say...as usual. So it's all about you...and forest fires are bad for property values...

Still confusing narcissism for nature.


Yes, it's human decision and interference either way, Jon. But which humans get to the make the decisions? The unaccountable corporate polluters, frackers, bombers, hoarders, murderers? Or the institution of some mechanism (some call it democracy) whereby the earth's population gets to make a general decision about the general welfare.
Magnus Eisengrim
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Quote:
On Sep 24, 2017, tommy wrote:
David Viner, 2000 then a scientist at the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, he said that snow was going to become a rare event in a few years but when it does come it will be heavy and catch everybody out. Now incidentally he is working for a company which is building multi-Billion $ airports.


So now we've got hearsay. Do you have a place where we have his actual words? Did he write this? Was it part of serious work? Was it a casual conversation? I've seen the same fragment of a sentence pasted all over the blogosphere, but I can't find what he actually said.

He might have given that sentence fragment to someone, but I'd hardly call that a serious prediction.

And, seriously, this is you've got to back up your claim that all expert predictions are failures? If this sentence fragment is the best you've got, then I'd say that climate scientists are better at predicting than pretty much any other group on the planet.
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats
Dannydoyle
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Quote:
On Sep 24, 2017, landmark wrote:
Quote:
On Sep 23, 2017, Jonathan Townsend wrote:
Quote:
On Sep 23, 2017, Magnus Eisengrim wrote:
Greed and politics often get in the way of wise action.


Prudence? Perhaps it's the mirror of guile?

You ate the pigeon? Shot the buffalo? But what if the shepherd protected all the sheep? All of them. Mutton is sin and mint jelly a sign of depravity? What if the gardener saved every bloom? Would the bees be the chosen ones? No? Not nice you say...as usual. So it's all about you...and forest fires are bad for property values...

Still confusing narcissism for nature.


Yes, it's human decision and interference either way, Jon. But which humans get to the make the decisions? The unaccountable corporate polluters, frackers, bombers, hoarders, murderers? Or the institution of some mechanism (some call it democracy) whereby the earth's population gets to make a general decision about the general welfare.


Do you really think that people get to make general decisions? Trump won. How much of his agenda is being implemented?

All it is is a different group of corrupt people you want to put in charge of the decisions, and honestly they are controlled by the group you so despise.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus
<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
Dannydoyle
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Quote:
On Sep 24, 2017, Magnus Eisengrim wrote:
Quote:
On Sep 24, 2017, tommy wrote:
David Viner, 2000 then a scientist at the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia, he said that snow was going to become a rare event in a few years but when it does come it will be heavy and catch everybody out. Now incidentally he is working for a company which is building multi-Billion $ airports.


So now we've got hearsay. Do you have a place where we have his actual words? Did he write this? Was it part of serious work? Was it a casual conversation? I've seen the same fragment of a sentence pasted all over the blogosphere, but I can't find what he actually said.

He might have given that sentence fragment to someone, but I'd hardly call that a serious prediction.

And, seriously, this is you've got to back up your claim that all expert predictions are failures? If this sentence fragment is the best you've got, then I'd say that climate scientists are better at predicting than pretty much any other group on the planet.


I'm trying to understand your position John. Climate scientists have not missed predictions in the past?

Exactly what level of accuracy do you give to them?
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus
<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
Magnus Eisengrim
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Of course scientists are sometimes wrong. Sometimes it's a big deal and sometimes it's a few careless words in an interview. The Viner quote is a sentence fragment. Who knows what he was saying and in what context.

My position remains: genuine experts are imperfect, but the remain the best sources that we have.

Given a choice between an expert, a news outlet and a blog, I'll take the expert most seriously every time.

Sadly, many people (including some prominent politicians) are cashing in on the current tendency to believe anything that agrees with our politics and to attack anything that disagrees with it.

Again, I'll go with the experts.
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats
Dannydoyle
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Well not all experts. You tend to go with those who verify your position, as all of us do.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus
<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
Magnus Eisengrim
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No I agree with the experts. My opinion is informed by their work. As I've said repeatefly, if the expert consensus changes, so will my opinion. Hasn't happened yet. At least not with AGW.
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats
tommy
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So now we have got you admitting that the best IPCC experts you have got should not be taken seriously.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
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