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rockwall Special user 762 Posts |
I found an interesting study done back in 2014. As it relates to "expert consensus" and to Cooks original study that started this thread I found it entertaining.
"If 97% of Scientists Say Global Warming is Real, 100% Say It Has Nearly Stopped" https://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/11/18/i......stopped/ "Is it the “consensus of scientists” that this “hiatus” is real, or is it just a manifestation of the “skeptical” global warming naysayers as we have so often been told? So, we decided to use Cook’s own (debatable) methodology to find out. We identified papers published between 2009 and 2014 and currently cataloged in the Web of Science database that included either the term “pause” or “hiatus” or “slowdown” and subsequently, the terms “global” and “temperature.” We then read the abstracts of those papers (or the papers themselves if further investigation was required) and assigned them to one of the following three categories: “not applicable,” “acknowledging the existence of a slowdown or stoppage in global warming (as reflected in the earth average surface temperature) in recent years,” and “arguing that a slowdown or stoppage of global warming (as reflected in the earth average surface temperature) has not occurred in recent years.” Of the 100 papers we identified, 65 didn’t have anything to do with recent global temperature trends (these typified papers published prior to about 2010). Of the remaining 35 papers, every single one of them acknowledged in some way that a hiatus, pause, or slowdown in global warming was occurring. In other words, we didn’t find a single paper on the topic that argued the rate of global warming has not slowed (or even stopped) in recent years. This is in direct opposition to the IPCC’s contention that global warming is accelerating, and supports arguments that the amount of warming that will occur over the remainder of the 21st century as a result of human fossil fuel usage will be at the low end of the IPCC projections, or even lower. Low-end warming yields low-end impacts. We surely may have missed a few papers that were not cataloged in the database we used, or that weren’t captured by our search terms, but the evidence is overwhelming—virtually all (if not actually all) scientific papers that mention a hiatus or pause agree that it exists. So while 97% of scientists may agree that global warming is caused by humans, virtually 100% agree that global warming has stopped or slowed considerably during the 21st century." Now THERE's a scientific consensus John won't be willing to agree with! |
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landmark Inner circle within a triangle 5194 Posts |
Quote:
On Sep 24, 2017, Dannydoyle wrote: No, I don't want a different group of corrupt people put in charge. I don't want Republicans, I don't want Democrats. I want democracy. I want freedom from the money people that are making the real decisions. It's a very long battle, but not, I hope and pray, impossible.
Click here to get Gerald Deutsch's Perverse Magic: The First Sixteen Years
All proceeds to Open Heart Magic charity. |
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tommy Eternal Order Devil's Island 16544 Posts |
“snow is starting to disappear from our lives“
“Sledges, snowmen, snowballs…are all a rapidly diminishing part of Britain’s culture” “within a few years winter snowfall will become ‘a very rare and exciting event'” “Children just aren’t going to know what snow is” “Heavy snow will return occasionally…but when it does we will be unprepared…Snow will probably cause chaos in 20 years time“ “chances are certainly now stacked against the sort of heavy snowfall in cities that inspired Impressionist painters” Readers were assured the future could be accurately predicted because “Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia” said so. But don't take him seriously because the best IPCC experts we have got, do get it wrong sometimes, don't you know. All you have to do is keep listening to them and keep paying them Billions to tell you another story. What a deal!
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.
Tommy |
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Magnus Eisengrim Inner circle Sulla placed heads on 1053 Posts |
Quote:
On Sep 24, 2017, rockwall wrote: We've seen this blog post before. That's not quite how science is done. The methodology is (deliberately?) Comical. Every paper about the "hiatus" is in fact about "the hiatus"! Stop the presses!
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats |
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tommy Eternal Order Devil's Island 16544 Posts |
How often do your experts with their psychic abilities get it right?
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.
Tommy |
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Magnus Eisengrim Inner circle Sulla placed heads on 1053 Posts |
Quote:
On Sep 24, 2017, tommy wrote: Considerably more often than your conspiracy theorists do.
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats |
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tommy Eternal Order Devil's Island 16544 Posts |
That baseless assertion has never been scientifically confirmed.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.
Tommy |
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rockwall Special user 762 Posts |
Quote:
On Sep 24, 2017, Magnus Eisengrim wrote: Exactly! And I think that was the whole point of the post. |
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Magnus Eisengrim Inner circle Sulla placed heads on 1053 Posts |
The thread is about the IPCC report. It has been endlessly deflected by a few people who seem to think that their favorite bloggers know more than the authors of the report.
I suspect that at least half of the AGW denial in this thread is from a couple of trolls who get their thrills by annoying others.
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats |
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tommy Eternal Order Devil's Island 16544 Posts |
I suspect that Rockwal has just proven that Magnus Eisengrim is an idiot and that is why Magnus Eisengrim is now annoyed.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.
Tommy |
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RNK Inner circle 7491 Posts |
Quote:
On Sep 24, 2017, rockwall wrote: LOL!!!!
Check out Bafflingbob.com
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The Hermit Veteran user 301 Posts |
Quote:
On Sep 23, 2017, Magnus Eisengrim wrote: It's the politics of it all. The whole point of the hysteria is to do something now and spend now. There is the possibility that the earth can handle warming and accommodate it. Maybe that is why the timeline doesn't work. My point is that it's a belief system. If you're forecasting doom, you should get your deadlines correct. Not doing so means, you're wrong or there is more happening that you're not accounting for. |
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The Hermit Veteran user 301 Posts |
Quote:
On Sep 24, 2017, Magnus Eisengrim wrote: As my Dad used to say Expert - Ex as in has been, spert as in drip under pressure. You got 'experts' on all sides. The experts were wrong on the timeline, what else are they wrong on? I am happy that believers want to believe with so little evidence and understanding of the issue. It shows that scientism is as much a religion as any. |
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tommy Eternal Order Devil's Island 16544 Posts |
As my Dad used to say “repeatefly” said Magnus Eisengrim’s son.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.
Tommy |
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RNK Inner circle 7491 Posts |
People are so aligned with their political side that even if there is not 100% certainty that doesn't matter. Their side HAS to be correct. (And this goes for people on both sides). But, even though all these predictions coming from the left about AGW have been wrong, it just doesn't matter. They will always be correct that there is AGW.
Check out Bafflingbob.com
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The Hermit Veteran user 301 Posts |
Proper prediction assumes a timeline. If they are that wrong on the timing, what else are they wrong on. I can safely predict you will die. Stating the exact time is a different matter. Knowing when determines the action needed. AGW is all action now for a possible when. This goes for all weather prediction. We can predict hurricanes, but the path can only be determined in a short window. Look at IRMA. Thousands evacuated for no reason. The tracks were wrong up to 24 hours before. It's certainly better than no prediction, but when you talk trillions of dollars it helps to really know when.
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Magnus Eisengrim Inner circle Sulla placed heads on 1053 Posts |
No sensible person expects 100% accuracy.
If you're not an expert in the field, the rational choice is to listen to the experts. The political choice is to align yourself with a side and fight for it.
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats |
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Dannydoyle Eternal Order 21219 Posts |
Quote:
On Sep 26, 2017, Magnus Eisengrim wrote: Either side.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus <BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell |
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tommy Eternal Order Devil's Island 16544 Posts |
If you're not an expert in the field, you can't see the snow.
Well, not unless the experts tell you that you can and what color it is etcetera.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.
Tommy |
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Magnus Eisengrim Inner circle Sulla placed heads on 1053 Posts |
Quote:
On Sep 26, 2017, Dannydoyle wrote: Absolutely. BE and expert or side with the experts. Everything else is vanity.
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats |
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