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R.S.
Regular user
CT one day I'll have
184 Posts
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Posted: Nov 14, 2013 11:36 am
0
Quote: On 2013-11-13 21:27, Chessmann wrote:
Quote: On 2013-11-13 20:55, R.S. wrote:
Do you know what they call holistic medicine, or alternative medicine that works? They call it "medicine." Don't be taken in by holistic nonsense. GET YOUR FLU SHOT!
This is...right and wrong (like a lot of dogmatic statements). I know many people who have been helped and hurt by standard "medicine" and people who have been helped (yes, seriously and demonstrably helped) and hurt by "alternative health options". You'll find excellent people and quacks in both groups.
Not talking about flu, by the way.
On a different and personal note, I've never had a flu shot. Had flu in 1992. A couple of months ago I thought I was coming down with it, but it petered out after the first night.
There may be inept practitioners of standard medicine, but that doesn't invalidate the aims and methodology of evidence-based medicine. However, the whole premise of alternative medicine is flawed and without merit (I'm referring to the "energy" based practices in particular). And although most practitioners of alternative medicine may be well-intentioned, and some alternative medicine patients may be helped, there are a host of possibilities that could account for the improvements. Anything from placebo, to some actual medicine being incorporated in with the treatment, to the body's ability to heal on it's own, etc. Also, some people may disingenuously report improvement in order to bolster their pre-existing notions of the efficacy of alternative medicine.
But the bottom line is that if something can demonstrably be proven to work, then it becomes standard and reliable treatment for that particular condition. Nothing that works remains relegated to an "alternative" world for very long. Anyway, things like Reiki (my niece is a Reiki practitioner and I can tell you that it's utter nonsense), Touch Therapy (this was debunked by a 9 year old girl), acupuncture, chiropractic, homeopathy, etc. are based on ludicrous and unproven assertions.
Here is a great resource for quackery:
http://quackwatch.org/
Also, the book "Trick Or Treatment" takes a comprehensive look at how modern medicine evolved, alternative medicine, and the studies that have been done. Highly recommended.
Stay healthy,
Ron
:)
"It is error only, and not truth, that shrinks from inquiry." Thomas Paine
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Magnus Eisengrim
Inner circle
Sulla placed heads on
1053 Posts
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Posted: Nov 14, 2013 04:26 pm
0
For the interested, here is the full CDC public info page the Landmark excerpted from.
Quote: How effective is the flu vaccine?
How well the flu vaccine works (or its ability to prevent flu illness) can range widely from season to season. The vaccine’s effectiveness also can vary depending on who is being vaccinated. At least two factors play an important role in determining the likelihood that flu vaccine will protect a person from flu illness: 1) characteristics of the person being vaccinated (such as their age and health), and 2) the similarity or "match" between the flu viruses the flu vaccine is designed to protect against and the flu viruses spreading in the community. During years when the flu vaccine is not well matched to circulating viruses, it’s possible that no benefit from flu vaccination may be observed. During years when there is a good match between the flu vaccine and circulating viruses, it’s possible to measure substantial benefits from vaccination in terms of preventing flu illness. However, even during years when the vaccine match is very good, the benefits of vaccination will vary across the population, depending on characteristics of the person being vaccinated and even, potentially, which vaccine was used.
Each season researchers try to determine how well flu vaccines work to regularly assess and confirm the value of flu vaccination as a public health intervention. Study results about how well a flu vaccine works can vary based on study design, outcome(s) measured, population studied and the season in which the flu vaccine was studied. These differences can make it difficult to compare one study’s results with another’s.
While determining how well a flu vaccine works is challenging, in general, recent studies have supported the conclusion that flu vaccination benefits public health, especially when the flu vaccine is well matched to circulating flu viruses.
Is the flu vaccine effective against all types of flu and cold viruses?
Seasonal flu vaccines are designed to protect against infection and illness caused by the flu viruses research indicates will be most common during the flu season. “Trivalent” flu vaccines are formulated to protect against three flu viruses, and “quadrivalent” flu vaccines protect against four flu viruses. Flu vaccines do NOT protect against infection and illness caused by other viruses that can also cause flu-like symptoms. There are many other viruses besides flu viruses that can result in flu-like illness* (also known as influenza-like illness or “ILI”) that spread during the flu season.
Does the flu vaccine work the same for everyone?
No. While the flu vaccine is the single best way to prevent the flu, protection can vary widely depending on who is being vaccinated (in addition to how well matched the flu vaccine is with circulating viruses). In general, the flu vaccine works best among healthy adults and older children. Some older people and people with certain chronic illnesses might develop less immunity than healthy children and adults after vaccination. However, even for these people, the flu vaccine still may provide some protection.
How effective is the flu vaccine in the elderly?
Older people with weaker immune systems often have a lower protective immune response after flu vaccination compared to younger, healthier people. This can result in lower vaccine effectiveness in these people.
How effective is the flu vaccine in children?
In general, the flu vaccine works best among healthy adults and children older than 2 years of age. Reduced benefits of flu vaccine are often found in studies of young children (e.g., those younger than 2 years of age) and older adults (e.g., adults 65 years of age and older).
How are benefits of vaccination measured?
Public health researchers measure how well flu vaccines work through different kinds of studies. “Randomized studies,” in which people are randomly assigned to receive either vaccine or placebo (i.e., salt water solution), and then followed to see how many in each group get the flu, are the “gold standard” (best method) for determining how well a vaccine works. The effects of vaccination measured in these studies is called “efficacy.”
“Observational studies” are studies in which subjects who choose to be vaccinated are compared to those who chose not to be vaccinated. This means that vaccination of study subjects is not randomized. The measurement of vaccine effects in an observational study is referred to as “effectiveness.” Randomized studies are expensive and are not conducted after a recommendation for vaccination has been issued, as withholding vaccine from people recommended for vaccination would place them at risk for infection, illness and possibly serious complications. For that reason, most U.S. studies conducted to determine the benefits of flu vaccination in the elderly are observational studies.
How does CDC present data on flu vaccine effectiveness?
CDC typically presents vaccine effectiveness (VE) as a single point estimate: for example, 60%. This point estimate represents the reduction in risk provided by the flu vaccine. CDC vaccine effectiveness studies commonly measure laboratory confirmed flu illness that results in a doctor’s visit or urgent care visit as an outcome. For this outcome, a VE point estimate of 60% means that the flu vaccine reduces a person’s risk of developing flu illness that results in a visit to the doctor’s office or urgent care provider by 60%.
In addition to the VE point estimate, CDC also provides a “confidence interval” (CI) for this point estimate, for example, 60% (95% CI: 50%-70%). The confidence interval provides a lower boundary for the VE estimate (e.g., 50%) as well as an upper boundary (e.g., 70%). One way to interpret a 95% confidence interval is that if CDC were to repeat this study 100 times, 95 times out of 100, the VE point estimate would fall within the confidence interval (i.e., on or between 50% and 70%). There is still the possibility that five times out of 100 (a 5% chance) that CDC’s point estimate of VE could fall outside of the 50%-70% confidence interval.
Why are confidence intervals important for understanding flu vaccine effectiveness?
Confidence intervals are important because they provide context for understanding the precision or exactness of a VE point estimate. The wider the confidence interval, the less exact the point value estimate of vaccine effectiveness becomes. Take, for example, a VE point estimate of 60%. If the confidence interval of this point estimate is 50%-70%, then we can have greater certainty that the true protective effect of the flu vaccine is near 60% than if the confidence interval was 10-90%. Furthermore, if a confidence interval crosses zero, for example, (-20% to 60%), then the point value estimate of VE provided is “not statistically significant.” People should be cautious when interpreting VE estimates that are not statistically significant because such results cannot rule out the possibility of zero VE (i.e., no protective benefit). The width of a confidence interval is related in part to the number of participants in the study, and so studies that provide more precise estimates of VE (and consequently, have a tighter confidence interval) typically include a large number of participants.
Why are there so many different outcomes for vaccine effectiveness studies?
Results of studies that assess how well a flu vaccine works can vary based on study design, outcome(s) measured, population studied and the season in which the vaccine was studied. These differences can make it difficult to compare one study’s results with another’s. As there is interest in how well flu vaccines may prevent illness, hospitalization, and even death with influenza, many outcomes need to be considered.
How does CDC measure how well the vaccine works?
Scientists continue to work on better ways to design, conduct and evaluate non-randomized (i.e., observational) studies to assess how well flu vaccines work. CDC has been working with researchers at universities and hospitals since the 2003-2004 flu season to estimate how well flu vaccine works through observational studies using laboratory-confirmed flu as the outcome. These studies currently use a very accurate and sensitive laboratory test known as RT-PCR (reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction) to confirm medically-attended flu virus infections as a specific outcome. CDC’s studies are conducted in five sites across the United States to gather more representative data. To assess how well the vaccine works across different age groups, CDC’s studies of vaccine effects have included all people aged 6 months and older recommended at that time for an annual flu vaccination. Similar studies are being done in Australia, Canada and Europe.
What do recent vaccine effectiveness studies show?
CDC conducts studies each year to determine how well the flu vaccine protects against flu illness. These estimates provide more information about how well this season’s vaccine is working. Recent studies show vaccine can reduce the risk of flu illness by about 60% among the overall population during seasons when most circulating flu viruses are like the viruses the flu vaccine is designed to protect against.
Do recent vaccine effectiveness study results support flu vaccination?
The large numbers of flu-associated illnesses and deaths in the United States, combined with the evidence from many studies showing that flu vaccines help to provide protection, support the current U.S. flu vaccination recommendations. It’s important to note, however, that how well flu vaccines work will continue to vary each year, depending especially on the match between the flu vaccine and the flu viruses that are spreading and causing illness in the community, as well as the characteristics of the person being vaccinated.
Where can I get more information?
CDC has compiled a list of selected publications related to vaccine effectiveness.
Besides vaccination, how can people protect themselves against the flu?
Getting a flu vaccine each year is the best way to prevent the flu. Antiviral drugs are an important second line of defense against the flu. These drugs must be prescribed by a doctor. In addition, good health habits, such as covering your cough and frequently washing your hands with soap, can help prevent the spread of the flu and other respiratory illnesses.
The effect of reading the whole page is rather different from the effect of reading selected talking points.
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats
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tommy
Eternal Order
Devil's Island
16544 Posts
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Posted: Nov 14, 2013 04:39 pm
0
The Magic Café ought to be added to their list. Magicians prescribing drugs here are becoming common place: Line up! Line up! Don't forget your flu shots and pot! You can trust us, we have have a doctor in the family, don't you know! What a medicine show. eh. Free expert advice avaiable from the great medini.
I swear by Apollo Physician and Asclepius and Hygieia and Panacea and all the gods and goddesses, making them my witnesses, that I will fulfill according to my ability and judgment this oath and this covenant:
Do you know any senior citizens? Please warn them..about the magicians here.
:)
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.
Tommy
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Al Angello
Eternal Order
Collegeville, Pa. USA
11045 Posts
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Posted: Nov 14, 2013 05:24 pm
0
The Devil's (Island) advocate has scrambled the facts one more time to discourage us from immunizing.
Take a chance with YOUR life and listen to his nonsense advise.
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landmark
Inner circle
within a triangle
5194 Posts
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Posted: Nov 14, 2013 05:25 pm
0
Quote: On 2013-11-14 11:26, Magnus Eisengrim wrote:
For the interested, here is the full CDC public info page the Landmark excerpted from.
Quote: How effective is the flu vaccine?
How well the flu vaccine works (or its ability to prevent flu illness) can range widely from season to season. The vaccine’s effectiveness also can vary depending on who is being vaccinated. At least two factors play an important role in determining the likelihood that flu vaccine will protect a person from flu illness: 1) characteristics of the person being vaccinated (such as their age and health), and 2) the similarity or "match" between the flu viruses the flu vaccine is designed to protect against and the flu viruses spreading in the community. During years when the flu vaccine is not well matched to circulating viruses, it’s possible that no benefit from flu vaccination may be observed. During years when there is a good match between the flu vaccine and circulating viruses, it’s possible to measure substantial benefits from vaccination in terms of preventing flu illness. However, even during years when the vaccine match is very good, the benefits of vaccination will vary across the population, depending on characteristics of the person being vaccinated and even, potentially, which vaccine was used.
Each season researchers try to determine how well flu vaccines work to regularly assess and confirm the value of flu vaccination as a public health intervention. Study results about how well a flu vaccine works can vary based on study design, outcome(s) measured, population studied and the season in which the flu vaccine was studied. These differences can make it difficult to compare one study’s results with another’s.
While determining how well a flu vaccine works is challenging, in general, recent studies have supported the conclusion that flu vaccination benefits public health, especially when the flu vaccine is well matched to circulating flu viruses.
Is the flu vaccine effective against all types of flu and cold viruses?
Seasonal flu vaccines are designed to protect against infection and illness caused by the flu viruses research indicates will be most common during the flu season. “Trivalent” flu vaccines are formulated to protect against three flu viruses, and “quadrivalent” flu vaccines protect against four flu viruses. Flu vaccines do NOT protect against infection and illness caused by other viruses that can also cause flu-like symptoms. There are many other viruses besides flu viruses that can result in flu-like illness* (also known as influenza-like illness or “ILI”) that spread during the flu season.
Does the flu vaccine work the same for everyone?
No. While the flu vaccine is the single best way to prevent the flu, protection can vary widely depending on who is being vaccinated (in addition to how well matched the flu vaccine is with circulating viruses). In general, the flu vaccine works best among healthy adults and older children. Some older people and people with certain chronic illnesses might develop less immunity than healthy children and adults after vaccination. However, even for these people, the flu vaccine still may provide some protection.
How effective is the flu vaccine in the elderly?
Older people with weaker immune systems often have a lower protective immune response after flu vaccination compared to younger, healthier people. This can result in lower vaccine effectiveness in these people.
How effective is the flu vaccine in children?
In general, the flu vaccine works best among healthy adults and children older than 2 years of age. Reduced benefits of flu vaccine are often found in studies of young children (e.g., those younger than 2 years of age) and older adults (e.g., adults 65 years of age and older).
How are benefits of vaccination measured?
Public health researchers measure how well flu vaccines work through different kinds of studies. “Randomized studies,” in which people are randomly assigned to receive either vaccine or placebo (i.e., salt water solution), and then followed to see how many in each group get the flu, are the “gold standard” (best method) for determining how well a vaccine works. The effects of vaccination measured in these studies is called “efficacy.”
“Observational studies” are studies in which subjects who choose to be vaccinated are compared to those who chose not to be vaccinated. This means that vaccination of study subjects is not randomized. The measurement of vaccine effects in an observational study is referred to as “effectiveness.” Randomized studies are expensive and are not conducted after a recommendation for vaccination has been issued, as withholding vaccine from people recommended for vaccination would place them at risk for infection, illness and possibly serious complications. For that reason, most U.S. studies conducted to determine the benefits of flu vaccination in the elderly are observational studies.
How does CDC present data on flu vaccine effectiveness?
CDC typically presents vaccine effectiveness (VE) as a single point estimate: for example, 60%. This point estimate represents the reduction in risk provided by the flu vaccine. CDC vaccine effectiveness studies commonly measure laboratory confirmed flu illness that results in a doctor’s visit or urgent care visit as an outcome. For this outcome, a VE point estimate of 60% means that the flu vaccine reduces a person’s risk of developing flu illness that results in a visit to the doctor’s office or urgent care provider by 60%.
In addition to the VE point estimate, CDC also provides a “confidence interval” (CI) for this point estimate, for example, 60% (95% CI: 50%-70%). The confidence interval provides a lower boundary for the VE estimate (e.g., 50%) as well as an upper boundary (e.g., 70%). One way to interpret a 95% confidence interval is that if CDC were to repeat this study 100 times, 95 times out of 100, the VE point estimate would fall within the confidence interval (i.e., on or between 50% and 70%). There is still the possibility that five times out of 100 (a 5% chance) that CDC’s point estimate of VE could fall outside of the 50%-70% confidence interval.
Why are confidence intervals important for understanding flu vaccine effectiveness?
Confidence intervals are important because they provide context for understanding the precision or exactness of a VE point estimate. The wider the confidence interval, the less exact the point value estimate of vaccine effectiveness becomes. Take, for example, a VE point estimate of 60%. If the confidence interval of this point estimate is 50%-70%, then we can have greater certainty that the true protective effect of the flu vaccine is near 60% than if the confidence interval was 10-90%. Furthermore, if a confidence interval crosses zero, for example, (-20% to 60%), then the point value estimate of VE provided is “not statistically significant.” People should be cautious when interpreting VE estimates that are not statistically significant because such results cannot rule out the possibility of zero VE (i.e., no protective benefit). The width of a confidence interval is related in part to the number of participants in the study, and so studies that provide more precise estimates of VE (and consequently, have a tighter confidence interval) typically include a large number of participants.
Why are there so many different outcomes for vaccine effectiveness studies?
Results of studies that assess how well a flu vaccine works can vary based on study design, outcome(s) measured, population studied and the season in which the vaccine was studied. These differences can make it difficult to compare one study’s results with another’s. As there is interest in how well flu vaccines may prevent illness, hospitalization, and even death with influenza, many outcomes need to be considered.
How does CDC measure how well the vaccine works?
Scientists continue to work on better ways to design, conduct and evaluate non-randomized (i.e., observational) studies to assess how well flu vaccines work. CDC has been working with researchers at universities and hospitals since the 2003-2004 flu season to estimate how well flu vaccine works through observational studies using laboratory-confirmed flu as the outcome. These studies currently use a very accurate and sensitive laboratory test known as RT-PCR (reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction) to confirm medically-attended flu virus infections as a specific outcome. CDC’s studies are conducted in five sites across the United States to gather more representative data. To assess how well the vaccine works across different age groups, CDC’s studies of vaccine effects have included all people aged 6 months and older recommended at that time for an annual flu vaccination. Similar studies are being done in Australia, Canada and Europe.
What do recent vaccine effectiveness studies show?
CDC conducts studies each year to determine how well the flu vaccine protects against flu illness. These estimates provide more information about how well this season’s vaccine is working. Recent studies show vaccine can reduce the risk of flu illness by about 60% among the overall population during seasons when most circulating flu viruses are like the viruses the flu vaccine is designed to protect against.
Do recent vaccine effectiveness study results support flu vaccination?
The large numbers of flu-associated illnesses and deaths in the United States, combined with the evidence from many studies showing that flu vaccines help to provide protection, support the current U.S. flu vaccination recommendations. It’s important to note, however, that how well flu vaccines work will continue to vary each year, depending especially on the match between the flu vaccine and the flu viruses that are spreading and causing illness in the community, as well as the characteristics of the person being vaccinated.
Where can I get more information?
CDC has compiled a list of selected publications related to vaccine effectiveness.
Besides vaccination, how can people protect themselves against the flu?
Getting a flu vaccine each year is the best way to prevent the flu. Antiviral drugs are an important second line of defense against the flu. These drugs must be prescribed by a doctor. In addition, good health habits, such as covering your cough and frequently washing your hands with soap, can help prevent the spread of the flu and other respiratory illnesses.
The effect of reading the whole page is rather different from the effect of reading selected talking points.
Talking Points? I directly quoted the parts relevant to the OP and our discussion. In short, if the vaccine is the wrong strain it is useless. How often does that happen? No way to know from the CDC Page. So I then quoted from a 12 year study referenced in the CDC bibliography which states that for people over 65 with reference to hospitalization, the vaccine had a VE of only 8.5% . Whether you think that's worth the negatives of the vaccine is up to you, but I can't say that I am happy with the implication that I am taking info out of context. I am directly addressing the OP.
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balducci
Loyal user
Canada
227 Posts
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Posted: Nov 14, 2013 06:45 pm
0
Landmark, what you wrote "This large scale study of flu vaccination from 1998-2010 seems to suggest only a slight effectiveness in folks>65 [VE=8.5% with a 95%CI of 3.3 to 13.5], and that doesn't take into account adverse non-flu reactions." does seem to be at odds with what is reported in that study's abstract.
The study actually describes it as a "modest but significant effect on prevention of hospitalization for pneumonia and influenza in persons 50 years of age and older". That is not just the author's opinion, presumably the medical experts who refereed the paper also agree with that description. I don't know, maybe your "slight effectiveness" means the same as "modest but significant effect" but to me the former sounds like a phrase more appropriate to a weaker effect than that described in the study.
Also, it appears that the study DOES take into account at least some adverse non-flu reactions: "There was no significant effect on hospitalizations for ischemic heart disease (IHD), congestive heart failure (CHF), cerebrovascular disease (CVD), or trauma."
Make America Great Again! - Trump in 2020 ... "We're a capitalistic society. I go into business, I don't make it, I go bankrupt. They're not going to bail me out. I've been on welfare and food stamps. Did anyone help me? No." - Craig T. Nelson, actor.
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Pop Haydn
Inner circle
Los Angeles
3691 Posts
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Posted: Nov 14, 2013 07:11 pm
0
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landmark
Inner circle
within a triangle
5194 Posts
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Posted: Nov 14, 2013 08:43 pm
0
Quote: balducci wrote:
The study actually describes it as a "modest but significant effect on prevention of hospitalization for pneumonia and influenza in persons 50 years of age and older". That is not just the author's opinion, presumably the medical experts who refereed the paper also agree with that description. I don't know, maybe your "slight effectiveness" means the same as "modest but significant effect" but to me the former sounds like a phrase more appropriate to a weaker effect than that described in the study.
50 years and older is not 65 years and older. Again the study referenced by the CDC states that for those 65 and older the VE was 8.5%, and given the CI it could be as low as 3.3%. Can't get much clearer than that.
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