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rockwall Special user 762 Posts |
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On Nov 16, 2014, Magnus Eisengrim wrote: Well, you see, if you're trying to point out a standstill, it only makes sense to pick the point at which it started. Look at it this way. If you climbed to the top of a hill that then flattened out at the top. You could prove that the hill quit going up by pointing to the point a mile back when you reached the highest point and show that it hasn't gotten any higher since then. It would be a bit silly to point to the bottom of the hill to try and prove this point. Of course that doesn't prove that it won't start climbing again, but it does prove that it hasn't gone up for that last mile. |
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Dannydoyle Eternal Order 21219 Posts |
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On Nov 17, 2014, landmark wrote: I hope you will chastise people properly when they bring up Limbaugh when nobody else does.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus <BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell |
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The Hermit Veteran user 301 Posts |
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On Nov 17, 2014, rockwall wrote: Really??? |
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rockwall Special user 762 Posts |
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On Nov 18, 2014, The Hermit wrote: I know, it's so obvious that it almost seems silly to have to explain it. |
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Magnus Eisengrim Inner circle Sulla placed heads on 1053 Posts |
Or you could do what all scientists do in such cases, and use a smoothing technique such as moving averages.
http://www.climate4you.com/DataSmoothing.htm
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats |
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rockwall Special user 762 Posts |
Yes, you could, and you would probably get the same result. A stalling of the temperature increase from 1998 to now.
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Magnus Eisengrim Inner circle Sulla placed heads on 1053 Posts |
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On Nov 18, 2014, rockwall wrote: Instead of speculating, why not find out?
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats |
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rockwall Special user 762 Posts |
I'll leave that to you.
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Pop Haydn Inner circle Los Angeles 3691 Posts |
A key polar bear population fell nearly by half in the past decade, marked by a dramatic increase in deaths of young cubs, a new U.S.-Canada study says. Researchers chiefly blame shrinking sea ice from global warming. Scientists from the U.S. Geological Survey and Environment Canada tagged and released polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea off Alaska and northwestern Canada from 2001 to 2010. The bear population shrank to about 900 in 2010, down from about 1,600 in 2004.
Study lead author Jeff Bromaghin said only two of 80 polar bear cubs the team tracked between 2004 and 2007 survived. Normally about half of cubs live. He thinks the cubs starved because there was a lack of summer sea ice and they couldn't get to seals. The study is in the journal Ecological Applications. http://www.nbcnews.com/science/environme......-n250356 |
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The Hermit Veteran user 301 Posts |
Global population of polar bears has increased by 2,650-5,700 since 2001
http://polarbearscience.com/2013/07/15/g......ce-2001/ Pops,, do you read what you post? ' He thinks the cubs starved because there was a lack of summer sea ice and they couldn't get to seals. The study is in the journal Ecological Applications.' HE THINKS it's because of less ice. He doesn't know or have facts. Useless point. |
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RNK Inner circle 7493 Posts |
Quote:
On Nov 18, 2014, The Hermit wrote: Pops, how can the polar bear population be increasing if we are in a global warming period?
Check out Bafflingbob.com
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rockwall Special user 762 Posts |
Here's the study in its entirety. (At least as far as I can tell.) Not a ton of detail.
http://www.esajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1890/14-1129.1 "In the southern Beaufort Sea of the U.S. and Canada, prior investigations have linked declines in summer sea ice to reduced physical condition, growth, and survival of polar bears. Combined with projections of population decline due to continued climate warming and the ensuing loss of sea ice habitat, those findings contributed to the 2008 decision to list the species as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Here, we used mark-recapture models to investigate the population dynamics of polar bears in the southern Beaufort Sea from 2001 to 2010, years during which the spatial and temporal extent of summer sea ice generally declined. Low survival from 2004 through 2006 led to a 25-50% decline in abundance. We hypothesize that low survival during this period resulted from 1) unfavorable ice conditions that limited access to prey during multiple seasons; and possibly 2) low prey abundance. For reasons that are not clear, survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and abundance was comparatively stable from 2008 to 2010 with approximately 900 bears in 2010 (90% C.I. 606-1,212). However, survival of subadult bears declined throughout the entire period. Reduced spatial and temporal availability of sea ice is expected to increasingly force population dynamics of polar bears as the climate continues to warm. However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival. A refined understanding of the ecological mechanisms underlying polar bear population dynamics is necessary to improve projections of their future status and facilitate development of management strategies." Notice that while they 'hypothesize' that low survival from 2004 to 2006 was due to unfavorable ice conditions, they have no clue why survival of adults and cubs began to improve in 2007 and then stayed stable from 2008 to 2010. Also note their final conclusion: "However, in the short term, our findings suggest that factors other than sea ice can influence survival." |
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Pop Haydn Inner circle Los Angeles 3691 Posts |
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On Nov 18, 2014, RNK wrote: Arctic polar bears may be adjusting their eating habits as their sea ice habitat melts and the furry white predators stand to lose the floating platform they depend on to hunt seals, their primary food. According to researchers, however, the bears are displaying flexible eating habits as their world changes around them. Indeed, scientific studies indicate polar bear populations are falling as the sea ice disappears earlier each spring and forms later in the fall. But a series of papers based on analysis of polar bear poop released over the past several months indicate that at least some of the bears are finding food to eat when they come ashore, ranging from bird eggs and caribou to grass seeds and berries. "What our results suggest is that polar bears have flexible foraging strategies," Linda Gormezano, a biologist at the American Museum of Natural History in New York and a co-author of several of the papers, told NBC News. http://www.nbcnews.com/science/environme......y-n15991 |
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Pop Haydn Inner circle Los Angeles 3691 Posts |
The 35,000 walruses recently spotted jammed onto an Alaskan beach were a very visual sign of what wildlife scientists know and worry about: From the Arctic to Antarctica, some species are having to adapt, or die, in the face of the long-term threat of a warming planet and more immediate danger like habitat destruction.
"It's got conservation groups scrambling for solutions," says Lee Hannah, a climate change biology researcher at the nonprofit Conservation International. "We’re really seeing this across the board." In the Arctic, walruses are spending more time on land since the sea ice they like to feed from has shrunk across the region in recent years. Polar bears also use sea ice to hunt from and their means of adapting to food availability include making bird eggs a bigger part of their diet. http://www.nbcnews.com/science/environme......-n217226 |
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Dannydoyle Eternal Order 21219 Posts |
Adapt or die. I thought evolution was a good thing?
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus <BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell |
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Magnus Eisengrim Inner circle Sulla placed heads on 1053 Posts |
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On Nov 18, 2014, The Hermit wrote: Oh look, a blog from a scientist who receives $750/month from the Heartland Institute. They're Everywhere, They're Everywhere!
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats |
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Dannydoyle Eternal Order 21219 Posts |
I forget is this the time it is ok to attack a source or is it a sign of a weak argument? I can't keep track because it changes so regularly.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus <BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell |
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rockwall Special user 762 Posts |
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On Nov 18, 2014, Magnus Eisengrim wrote: Quote:
On Nov 15, 2014, Magnus Eisengrim wrote: |
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Magnus Eisengrim Inner circle Sulla placed heads on 1053 Posts |
I have no comment on her substance. Her position is not supported by the article abstract Rockwall posted, though.
At the end of the day, you have to ask yourself why you would believe something somebody posted on a blog. Anybody can post any old garbage and there it is. At least peer-reviewed science gives you some protection. "Adjunct Professor" sounds like a great title (heck, I have that title, too) but it doesn't buy you a whole lot of credibility. And it doesn't give you much responsibility either. FWIW, Susan Crockford's area of expertise is canine evolution.
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats |
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Magnus Eisengrim Inner circle Sulla placed heads on 1053 Posts |
Quote: On Nov 18, 2014, Magnus Eisengrim wrote:
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats |
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