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S2000magician Inner circle Yorba Linda, CA 3465 Posts 
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On Jan 21, 2015, insight wrote: I notice that there is one CFA charterholder on your team; that's somewhat reassuring. (Note for your website: charterholder is one word, not two.) I'd love to hear his analysis of this phenomenon. |
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balducci Loyal user Canada 227 Posts
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On Jan 23, 2015, S2000magician wrote: I do not see the details of his fund, its performance, or members of his team when I go to the link. Does one need a motifinvesting account to see the details?
Make America Great Again! - Trump in 2020 ... "We're a capitalistic society. I go into business, I don't make it, I go bankrupt. They're not going to bail me out. I've been on welfare and food stamps. Did anyone help me? No." - Craig T. Nelson, actor.
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S2000magician Inner circle Yorba Linda, CA 3465 Posts
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On Jan 23, 2015, balducci wrote: Evidently not: Leadership Team, Board and Advisors. |
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balducci Loyal user Canada 227 Posts
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On Jan 23, 2015, S2000magician wrote: Oh, I see what you are looking at. I may be mistaken, but that is not HIS website or HIS team. That is the team of motifinvesting. Insights's "motif" page is like a user page on that site. You know, like my profile page is on The Magic Café. Users there can create their own "motifs" (like a stock portfolio) to invest according to and invite others to copy and use the same. The advantage is that if you do it through the Motif Investing site, it is supposed to be more cost effective and it allows small and maybe even a fractional number of shares to be bought. So someone with a very small amount of money to invest can still invest in a portfolio made of a large number of stocks. Motif Investing was in the news quite a bit earlier this year. There was one article in particular about how this was an investment mode that appealed to millenials. I'm not 100% sure now, but I suspect this was it: http://www.forbes.com/sites/samanthashar......forever/ So back to my question, I still do not see details of insight's own fund (i.e. "motif"), its performance, (or members of any team of his) when I go to the link. I suspect I do need to create an account to see any of that.
Make America Great Again! - Trump in 2020 ... "We're a capitalistic society. I go into business, I don't make it, I go bankrupt. They're not going to bail me out. I've been on welfare and food stamps. Did anyone help me? No." - Craig T. Nelson, actor.
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imgic Inner circle Moved back to Midwest to see 1339 Posts
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When I was learning statistics as an undergrad, our professor showed us the Superbowl-Stock market correlation. At the time 100% of the time and NFC team won the Superbowl, the stock market increased for the years (currently it's at 80%),
The lesson learned was correlation does not indicate causation.
"Imagination is more important than knowledge."
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landmark Inner circle within a triangle 5194 Posts
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Plastics.
Click here to get Gerald Deutsch's Perverse Magic: The First Sixteen Years
All proceeds to Open Heart Magic charity. |
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insight Inner circle 3095 Posts
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Friends,
I have run a multivariate regression, and this strategy works! I will provide some more info on analysis in my next post that may surprise you. Regarding bob cassidy'S POST, I am quantifying the sunshine, and I confirm that black friday did not meet the threshold for inclusion as an entry date in my portfolio. Regards, Mike |
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mastermindreader 1949 - 2017 Seattle, WA 12586 Posts
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Black Friday is the day after Thanksgiving and isn't what I was referring to.
But why didn't Black Thurday or Black Tuesday meet your threshold? The are, after all, extremely significant dates in the history of the stock market. That said, a previous poster summed it up pretty well, I think. Correlation does not imply causation. |
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insight Inner circle 3095 Posts
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Bob,
To clarify, those dates also would have been excluded, per the threshold. To reiterate, I am talking about a regression (thus, implying causation) with high statistical significance. Again, for those interested, I will share the analysis soon. Finally, I am not claiming this strategy is bulletproof. But, it seems to work so far. Regards, Mike Quote:
On Jan 23, 2015, mastermindreader wrote: |
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Magnus Eisengrim Inner circle Sulla placed heads on 1053 Posts
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On Jan 23, 2015, insight wrote: Did you really mean to type this?
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats |
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S2000magician Inner circle Yorba Linda, CA 3465 Posts
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On Jan 23, 2015, insight wrote: Regression doesn't remotely imply causation. |
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mastermindreader 1949 - 2017 Seattle, WA 12586 Posts
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No, it doesn't.
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insight Inner circle 3095 Posts
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Right. I meant to write that in the analytical write-up, a causality is established between sunshine and stock market performance. It may not make sense now, but I will share the academic paper when I regain access to my laptop.
Regards, Mike Quote:
On Jan 23, 2015, S2000magician wrote: |
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Magnus Eisengrim Inner circle Sulla placed heads on 1053 Posts
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On Jan 23, 2015, insight wrote: I don't think you've clarified your position. Are you claiming that your regression establishes causality? Or are you stating that you will make a causal argument in your paper, but we haven't seen it yet?
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned; The best lack all conviction, while the worst Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats |
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mastermindreader 1949 - 2017 Seattle, WA 12586 Posts
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If there was a causal relationship, I'd think that all of the millionaire investors in the Seattle area would cause the market to tank regularly.
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imgic Inner circle Moved back to Midwest to see 1339 Posts
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On Jan 23, 2015, insight wrote: Not sure I'd invest money with somebody who can't access their laptop.
"Imagination is more important than knowledge."
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Salguod Nairb Room 101 0 Posts
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We shall meet in the place where there is no darkness...
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Salguod Nairb Room 101 0 Posts
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Quote:
On Jan 23, 2015, ZachDavenport wrote: I'm down to 35 posts this morning.... 
We shall meet in the place where there is no darkness...
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| The Magic Cafe Forum Index » » Not very magical, still... » » The Sunshine Effect (7 Likes) | ||||||||||
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Posted: Jan 23, 2015 06:06 am 
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