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AlexanderG Veteran user No more and no less than 367 Posts |
I recently released "Flip and Tell," a fun, impromptu piece of close-up mentalism, that uses no gimmicks or sleights: you demonstrate clairvoyance (or mind-reading), then your participant does - and then you finally show that you had predicted everything!
The effect: You and your participant each have a collection of coins before you. (They can be borrowed.) You and she take turns secretly flipping over your own coins until she is completely satisfied that neither of you could possibly know the heads-tails orientation of the other's coins. You now cover a coin of yours and she covers one of hers. Yet you are able to tell the orientation of her covered coin - and then she is able to do the same for yours. Finally, you reveal that you had predicted both results ahead of time! Here's a trailer I shot in HD on Fifth Avenue, NYC: https://vimeo.com/136972193 Available (for $6, the price of popcorn at the movies!) exclusively at: http://www.lybrary.com/flip-and-tell-p-811928.html I hope you enjoy it. (And thanks again to Mr. Mindbender and Richard Osterlind for encouragement and suggestions.) |
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Marc O Special user The Netherlands 755 Posts |
Congratulations with your release!
First of all great video, looks very nice, and makes me want to go back to NYC again Good to see that after your quest for different coin routines you have managed to come up with your own. |
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kinesis Inner circle Scotland, surrounded by 2708 Posts |
I bought it - I like it - I'll definitely use it.
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BeThePlunk Special user West of Boston, East of Eden 887 Posts |
Just bought it. Good fun and I'll use it. Thanks.
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AlexanderG Veteran user No more and no less than 367 Posts |
Thanks - I'm very glad you all have enjoyed it!
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twistedace Inner circle philadelphia 3772 Posts |
The video looks like you have a bunch of coins and one prediction. Am I missing something? It seems like a 50/50 effect, but not as strong as a which hand. I'm not knocking it. I'm just wondering how this effect plays for spectators. Do you find it strong?
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AlexanderG Veteran user No more and no less than 367 Posts |
Hi, twistedace. Thanks for checking it out. In fact the video shows *three* predictions (or however you want to spin it): you divine the orientation of your spectator's coin; she then divines the orientation of your coin; and then you show that you predicted both results ahead of time. The probability of getting those three predictions correct is 1/2*1/2*1/4 = 1/16. So quite a bit more impressive than "which hand." Even more impressive than "which hand and which foot"!
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Tony Iacoviello Eternal Order 13151 Posts |
Alexander, you are counting the orientation of the coins twice, and the written prediction is confirming the orientation match, it is a 50/50.
But you also have the additional match that occurs 25% of the time when the coins also match. This match seems greater because of the number of the coins though. Good job! |
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AlexanderG Veteran user No more and no less than 367 Posts |
I'm glad you like it, Tony. Thank you for your encouragement.
(But I'm still going to stick with my assessment. Assume I randomly guess my partner's coin's orientation (probability 1/2 of being correct). Assume she randomly guesses my coin's orientation (probability 1/2 of being correct). And assume I randomly write down a prediction about whose guesses will be correct (probability 1/4 of being correct). Then the probability of my guess being correct and her guess being correct and of my prediction being correct is indeed 1/16.) |
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Sean Giles Inner circle Cambridge/ UK 3517 Posts |
This is an old effect. I think they did it on scam school too at one point.
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SolidSnake Special user 534 Posts |
The chances of you getting the orientation of 2 coins correct is actually 1/4. There are only 4 possibilities TT, TH, HT or HH.
There is no holy grail!
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Tony Iacoviello Eternal Order 13151 Posts |
Quote:
On Feb 8, 2016, SolidSnake wrote: But that is not what is really happening, the odds of a person selecting heads or tails is 1 in 2 (50/50). You are predicting what the person selected, it makes no difference if you say heads, or display a coin with head's up, or (and) show it written, it is still 50/50. You are not predicting the orientation of your own coin, your coin is the prediction. |
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AlexanderG Veteran user No more and no less than 367 Posts |
Tony, maybe we're talking at cross purposes. But if the question is: what are the odds of my guessing correctly a spectator's coin's orientation, her guessing correctly my coin's orientation, and my predicting correctly those guesses, then the answer is 1/16.
The odds of my guessing correctly a spectator's coin's orientation is 1/2. The odds of her guessing correctly my coin's orientation correctly is 1/2. And the odds of my predicting correctly who would be correct in their guesses is 1/4. Those are all independent events and so the probability of their all occurring is arrived at by taking their product. (All these guesses/predictions are random - you can imagine they were arrived at by flipping a coin.) I'm not sure what you mean by "that is not what is really happening." In the effect "Flip and Tell," it is not what is happening of course! The method guarantees 100% success. But if the question is, What would be the odds of all three guesses coming out correct if nothing were rigged?, then the answer is 1/16. SolidSnake, you're right. But there is a third phase to the routine, which involves predicting who would be correct in their guesses. Sean, credits (to the best of my knowledge) are given in the instructions. Different methods are combined. Perhaps the one you're thinking of has been known (I expect) for millennia - but in the routine, it's been given a better concealment than I've encountered. Thanks again, everyone. Alexander |
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AlexanderG Veteran user No more and no less than 367 Posts |
One last bit on the mathematics of this...
In the video, the third phase's prediction is of the form "Both tails." If the prediction is of the orientation of my covered coin and of my participant's coin, then of course - since I can choose which coin to cover - the probability of getting the prediction right is just 1/2 (I won't ever be wrong about the orientation of my own coin). Thanks to those who pointed this out. But if (as I've stressed above) the prediction is rather of who guessed correctly, then the probability of that prediction being correct is 1/4. It doesn't matter that I know my own coin's orientation. (This is a simple tweak in the formulation of your prediction, and I will update the instructions to reflect it.) To illustrate the point, suppose that I like to guess whether the red Powerball will be odd or even. Each night, ahead of the drawing, I predict whether I'll be correct in my guess, and then I guess whether it will be odd or even. If I do this again and again, I will end up making two correct predictions only 1/4 of the time. Thanks again, everyone, for your interest. |
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Tom Cutts Staff Northern CA 5925 Posts |
Then the prediction would be more clear, "we will both be right."
I'm more at odds with a mind reading routine which ends in a kicker prediction. If you knew the outcome in advance, there was no mind reading. But really I'm more concerned that you can get popcorn for $6 in a NYC theater! It's like $8 or $9 in SF. |
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NeilS Inner circle 3225 Posts |
I enjoyed watching the video and it was well produced. However I do feel the wording of the prediction could have far greater impact and also it would have been better written on, say, a business card.
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AlexanderG Veteran user No more and no less than 367 Posts |
Thanks, Tom. You make an important point: about keeping consistent the powers one's routine suggests one has. (Though I'd be interested to know whether mentalists worry about this consistency more than spectators do.) In performing "Flip and Tell," I often stop after the first two phases, which aren't in any tension with one another.
And yes, instead of "popcorn," I should have said "bottle of water"! |
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twistedace Inner circle philadelphia 3772 Posts |
To me it would be stronger if everything was predicted and the prediction was laid out before the effect began. An example:
We will both choose the Penny They will both be tails There will be x number of heads up coins THAT would be a strong routine. I watched this routine from a spectator's point of view. To mme it looks like a 50/50. You both had the coin oriented the same way. |
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twistedace Inner circle philadelphia 3772 Posts |
I just don't see this as a strong routine. No offense to the creator. I just don't see spectators as reacting strongly. There are many possible solutions. One of the simplest is "you have one coin heads up and one tails side up under your hand and you move one." If spectators can latch onto any explanation I don't feel like it's a strong effect.
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AlexanderG Veteran user No more and no less than 367 Posts |
No offense taken, twistedace! I appreciate your feedback.
I'm not sure what you mean by the possible solution: "you have one coin heads up and one tails side up under your hand and you move one." After your participant calls the orientation of your coin, you very slowly, cleanly, clearly remove your hand from your coin (showing your entire hand if you wish) and reveal that your participant was correct. Your hand covering your coin is in view the entire time, the reveal is as slow and clean as you wish, and so I don't see how anyone could think you had several coins under your hand. |
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