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Cliffg37
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So I am a high school Physics teacher by profession. TV science does not elude me, and sci-fi science is either workable or not. I don't bother myself with worries over whether TV science could be or is pure fantasy. However I was watching the TV show Dark Matter last week and the team gets thrown back in time 600 years to modern day Earth.

600 years? Is that enough?

Is it possible that in 600 years technology will advance to levels such as presented on this Sci-fi based show? Well, I always point out to my students that my grandfather was born in 1903, five months before the Wright Brothers famous first flight. He passed away in 1979 at age 76 as a world traveler. Amazing technology advances in one man's ordinary lifetime. in 1950 he did not think we'd ever get to the moon. He lived to watch Neil Armstrong's famous first step. He saw the birth of the SST airplane. etc. So if 600 years is 18 generations, then I think that could be enough time to establish the technology of most sci-fi shows.

But my question is not about science, it is about sociology. I am wondering how long it would take humans, with appropriate future technology to spread out to form established societies on a multitude of other planets? This is where I am thinking time will run out. Where was Earth 600 years ago? Well, Europe was likely the strongest point of civilization, and we lived in a society where most people did not travel, at least not far, due to the dangers of it. We had a few hardy explorers. "Columbus sailed the ocean blue etc."

Any thoughts on this?
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Both are fun if you do it right!
Josh Riel
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I've read, and don't quote me on the specifics, that something like 1000+ years ago technology doubled every 100 years, now it doubles every 6 month, and there might come a time where it doubles sooner.

I do know that when I was a kid, in poverty, I had a black and white TV and phones had the round ringer, and what we have today would literally have been magic.
Someone, somewhere said at a certain level technology would become indistinguishable from magic.

Having said that: I really don't know, but I can hardly believe anything is impossible.

Having said THAT: I think humanity, while becoming more technologically advanced is also becoming dumber, or perhaps better consumers, and I think we will, one way or another, bring about a Armageddon level event to bring us back to 1000+ years ago long before we can colonize any other planet.
I'm an American though, I see and hear the end of the world every day.
Magic is doing improbable things with odd items that, under normal circumstances, would be unnessecary and quite often undesirable.
landmark
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Quote:
I think we will, one way or another, bring about a Armageddon level event to bring us back to 1000+ years ago long before we can colonize any other planet.


The future will hold, in the words of Rosa Luxemburg, socialism or barbarism. I would say at the present time, the latter has by far the upper hand. I am not optimistic either, Josh.
LobowolfXXX
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On Aug 1, 2017, landmark wrote:
Quote:
I think we will, one way or another, bring about a Armageddon level event to bring us back to 1000+ years ago long before we can colonize any other planet.


The future will hold, in the words of Rosa Luxemburg, socialism or barbarism.


I trust that's the "inclusive 'or.'"

Two children playing can almost always get along. Add a third, and the potential for problems goes way up. Two of the three will get along better, or have more in common, or whatever. The more people there are, the more likely it is that the answer to Rodney King is simply "No."
"Torture doesn't work" lol
Guess they forgot to tell Bill Buckley.

"...as we reason and love, we are able to hope. And hope enables us to resist those things that would enslave us."
NYCTwister
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Quote:
On Jul 31, 2017, Josh Riel wrote:
I've read, and don't quote me on the specifics, that something like 1000+ years ago technology doubled every 100 years, now it doubles every 6 month, and there might come a time where it doubles sooner.

I do know that when I was a kid, in poverty, I had a black and white TV and phones had the round ringer, and what we have today would literally have been magic.
Someone, somewhere said at a certain level technology would become indistinguishable from magic.

Having said that: I really don't know, but I can hardly believe anything is impossible.

Having said THAT: I think humanity, while becoming more technologically advanced is also becoming dumber, or perhaps better consumers, and I think we will, one way or another, bring about a Armageddon level event to bring us back to 1000+ years ago long before we can colonize any other planet.
I'm an American though, I see and hear the end of the world every day.


I think it's because our technological capability has FAR out-paced our moral maturity. As a result children possess nuclear missiles. And, like spoiled children, they can never get enough toys.

And what good are toys if you don't play with them?

It's all soooo stupid.
If you need fear to enforce your beliefs, then your beliefs are worthless.
Magnus Eisengrim
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Quote:
On Aug 1, 2017, LobowolfXXX wrote:
Quote:
On Aug 1, 2017, landmark wrote:
Quote:
I think we will, one way or another, bring about a Armageddon level event to bring us back to 1000+ years ago long before we can colonize any other planet.


The future will hold, in the words of Rosa Luxemburg, socialism or barbarism.


I trust that's the "inclusive 'or.'"



Excellent!
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.--Yeats
Cliffg37
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Hmmm.... Interesting points, a bit fatalistic, but really not what I was asking.

Any clue how long it will take for a small landing party on an uninhabited planet, capable of supporting life, and with material and technology... To build up a viable society. By small landing party I am thinking realistically of 2 or 3 hundred people. Most will be very healthy and genetically strong as they would have to be to be chosen for such a mission. Most will be smart and resourceful etc.
Magic is like Science,
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landmark
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Quote:
On Aug 1, 2017, LobowolfXXX wrote:
Quote:
On Aug 1, 2017, landmark wrote:
Quote:
I think we will, one way or another, bring about a Armageddon level event to bring us back to 1000+ years ago long before we can colonize any other planet.


The future will hold, in the words of Rosa Luxemburg, socialism or barbarism.


I trust that's the "inclusive 'or.'"


No. Socialism means people democratically sharing economic and political power. There is no other hope.
tommy
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15 years.
If there is a single truth about Magic, it is that nothing on earth so efficiently evades it.

Tommy
Tim Snyder
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Quote:
On Aug 1, 2017, Cliffg37 wrote:
Any clue how long it will take for a small landing party on an uninhabited planet, capable of supporting life, and with material and technology... To build up a viable society. By small landing party I am thinking realistically of 2 or 3 hundred people. Most will be very healthy and genetically strong as they would have to be to be chosen for such a mission. Most will be smart and resourceful etc.


15 years until there is a permanent base on Mars; but I think 100 years before what Cliffg37 is proposing happens. There are three necessary things that must occur first: The speed of space travel must increase. The effects of long term space travel on the human body must be minimized. A planet capable of supporting life must be found. It is the last one that will prove the most difficult. I don't see the Mormons leaving Utah to create a Martian utopia; but if a planet even remotely similar to Earth were found, a number of groups would be willing to travel there to make a world of their liking.

Regarding the sociological aspect of your question, the groups colonizing these planets will already have a strong social order before they arrive. Like you wrote, it will be similar to the colonization on Earth. Minority groups, like the Puritans of old, will pool their resources to travel to a world they can make into their utopian image. Scientific societies, similar to the Mars Society, will with the help of eccentric billionaires fly off to a planet of their liking. It is also probable that some of the first groups to leave Earth will be those "encouraged" to leave by the Earth government. One person's utopia is another persons dystopia. Outspoken and problematic groups within Earth society will be given the choice to conform or get on the ship. Not exactly prison colonies; but still a good way to remove large groups of non-conformers from the "just" society created by our benevolent leaders.

I don't understand why so many intelligent individuals are excited about colonizing Mars. I would love for someone to explain to me how Mars is going to be anything other than a Military Dictatorship. The number one reason for Earth conflicts is the lack of resources. There are much fewer resources on Mars. Every aspect of life will be dictated by a protocol. What are the odds of us ever finding a planet as welcoming as Earth. I believe we should spend all our efforts trying to get our act together here. Let the robots colonize the distant worlds.
LobowolfXXX
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Quote:
On Aug 1, 2017, landmark wrote:
Quote:
On Aug 1, 2017, LobowolfXXX wrote:
Quote:
On Aug 1, 2017, landmark wrote:
Quote:
I think we will, one way or another, bring about a Armageddon level event to bring us back to 1000+ years ago long before we can colonize any other planet.


The future will hold, in the words of Rosa Luxemburg, socialism or barbarism.


I trust that's the "inclusive 'or.'"


No. Socialism means people democratically sharing economic and political power. There is no other hope.


But barbarism doesn't mean a lack of democratically shared economic and political power.
"Torture doesn't work" lol
Guess they forgot to tell Bill Buckley.

"...as we reason and love, we are able to hope. And hope enables us to resist those things that would enslave us."
landmark
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Your definition of barbarism and mine differ.
landmark
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It is also probable that some of the first groups to leave Earth will be those "encouraged" to leave by the Earth government.

Doubtful. Too expensive. It's easier to kill them or let them starve.
landmark
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Here's an interview I did with Buzz Aldrin. He talks about going to Mars. You might be surprised about what he thinks the greatest danger for astronauts is:

https://jackshalom.net/2015/09/25/to-inf......terview/
LobowolfXXX
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Quote:
On Aug 2, 2017, landmark wrote:
Your definition...and mine differ.


I get that a lot.
"Torture doesn't work" lol
Guess they forgot to tell Bill Buckley.

"...as we reason and love, we are able to hope. And hope enables us to resist those things that would enslave us."
LobowolfXXX
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Quote:
On Aug 2, 2017, landmark wrote:
Your definition of barbarism and mine differ.


Of course, on your definitions, Luxembourg' dichotomy applies to the past and present as well, and lacks all profundity.

But I do agree that the future will either bring socialism or it won't.
"Torture doesn't work" lol
Guess they forgot to tell Bill Buckley.

"...as we reason and love, we are able to hope. And hope enables us to resist those things that would enslave us."
Cliffg37
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Thank you Tim, Very insightful and possibly true as well.
Magic is like Science,
Both are fun if you do it right!
Theodore Lawton
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I don't know about a multitude of other planets. If that ever happens, it's a really long way in the future. There seems to be too much going on here holding us back from even getting close to touching the necessities mentioned in Tim's opening paragraph.

I see space opening up first kind of the way it's portrayed in the movie Outland with Sean Connery. Corporations willing and able to invest the money will start mining outposts within our solar system if the right minerals or ores are found. The tech will be mixed- just good enough to get them there and bring home the dollars while the law enforcement will still have shotguns- no blasters or light sabers for a while yet.
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