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Ken Northridge
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I hope this is not a breech of ethics but I copied this from a facebook post. This person obviously wants to help the magic community so I didn't think he'd mind.

"I�m located in the Seattle area, the epicenter for the coronavirus in the U.S. Over the past week I�ve had 10 days worth of shows (assemblies and birthday parties) cancel or postpone indefinitely, and I anticipate more will be happening. I also teach after-school magic classes at local schools, and 2 of the districts have now cancelled after-school activities, affecting 3 of my schools. One of the private schools I teach at had only 4 out of the 21 children in my classes in attendance yesterday (not because they were sick, but parents kept them home). I anticipate they will close next week, as the teachers were in a seminar today about using google classroom.

One local district of 24 schools has closed for at least 2 weeks, others (so far) are staying open but are not doing large events. And this is when no children have been reported being sick.

The reason I�m posting this is to ready everyone else here. I�ll bet that this will touch everyone in the country at some point, if not this spring, then summer library shows, fairs, etc. Make sure you have a savings cushion that you can live off of for awhile.

There isn�t much I can do about the shows right now, but I am going to offer my magic classes via video conference, so I can at least continue that part of my business. Hang on, it�s going to be a rough ride!"
"Love is the real magic." -Doug Henning
www.KenNorthridge.com
Decomposed
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Thanks Ken for posting that. I think this is a wake up call for the entire world. Everyone needs to come together to get through this. It will get better but currently I am afraid it will worsen. I feel for those who have the virus and my prayers go out to them.

It is way overblown in my opinion both in my world and all over. I went through this before like everyone else. It was never this overblown. Sure it will get worse, absolutely. There will more then just 500 deaths. The regular flu does a lot more. It is only temporary. Most of the public do not see that. Take precautions and move on.




Decomposing Nonsense
Decomposed
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The reason you see regular flu mortality rates higher is:

1) The figures for dying from regular flu are one half percent.

2) Covid 19 the figures are one percent.

Therefore Corona is ten times deadlier then the regular flu.

However those are just figures based on S Korea and China. Our number of cases will of course will keep going up as test kits are made available. Prevention is the key, not panic. Just need to ride it out and be ready to take the big bump in the road.

Decomposing panic
Dannydoyle
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Long term it will recover. It always does
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus
<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
Decomposed
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Just to be clear. If one wants to fear, ride a bike. Just driving to the store to buy and hoard toilet paper you are 100 times (minimum) more likely to get killed then the Covid 19. Vehicle fatalities in USA alone average about 37000 a year or 102 a day. Worldwide. 1.2 million a year. Think if Corona was killing 102 a day in the US. What you are seeing may be justified I would think. But I have not seen too many people worried about driving, at least in my neck of the woods. The only reason they would not be is self isolation.

BTW: OJ Simpson wore a mask to buy tons of water at COSTCO the other day.

Whether the media is to blame or not, huge corporations are keeping their employees close to home and big events are cancelling.

CDC is telling anyone over 60 to stay home. Heck I am a runner and plenty of over 60 year olds whip my butt and I am not that slow.

Decomposing Communication Smile Smile
Dannydoyle
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The shocking part is the amount of people to whom it seems hand washing is a new thing.

THAT will be the downfall of society!
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus
<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
Vandecarr
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I've been a germaphobe for as long as I can remember. I hate getting anything on my hands and wash them constantly. I'm glad the new trend of good hygiene is starting to catch on! Smile
Decomposed
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Agree, if everyone pays attention to hygiene, perhaps we will get through this a lot quicker and back to the old normal.
Dannydoyle
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Well I guess our point was if the old normal is not knowing to wash your hands then getting back to that might not be a good idea.

Mike you don't have to he a germaphobe to know being clean is a good idea.

On an unrelated note if we were once Facebook friends and then you started to post a bunch of stuff about hand washing as if you just discovered plutonium and then I unfriended you, the series of events is probably related. Just sayin.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus
<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
Dannydoyle
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2000: Y2K is going to kill us all (remember this one?)
2001: Anthrax is going to kill us all
2002: West Nile is going to kill us all
2003: SARS is going to kill us all
2005: BIRD flu is going to kill us all (Scary for Bird acts huh?)
2006: ECOLI is going to kill us all
2008: The bad economy is going to kill us all (Showing both political parties are not above being opportunists.)
2009: SWINE flu is going to kill us all
2010: BP oil is going to kill us all
2012: The Mayan calendar is going to kill us all (THIS was my personal favorite)
2013: North Korea is going to kill us all
2014: Ebola virus is going to kill us all
2015: Disney measles and ISIS are going to kill us all
2016: Zika virus is going to kill us all
2020: Corona Virus is going to kill us all

Stop buying in to the madness!

The STORY is the thing! That is what media of all stripes and flavors HAS to sell. It is all they have to sell.

This is a short list, and does not include things like the way they report hurricanes and natural disasters. (Even Global Climate Change is overblown on purpose. I am NOT saying it doesn't happen or isn't happening, I am saying they REPORT it to incite people. Always have.)

All we need to really do is quit listening to the nonsense.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus
<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
Dannydoyle
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Https://www.diamandis.com/blog/coronavirus-fear-vs-reality

I just wish the people who have committed this CRIME of misrepresenting this into panic could be held accountable.

I totally left that out sorry. HOW STUPID of me! LOL.

Here is a takeaway from the article.

"Over the past week, our amygdalas (the fear centers of our brain) have been in overdrive.

As Coronavirus (and anxiety) spread, I�m concerned by the level of pandemic fear circulating through our news and social media.

The goal of this blog is to give you a thoughtful alternative to fear� to contextualize what you are hearing�

Let�s talk about death rates� While this is no apples-to-apples comparison, how we react to death is primal. And when we hear about Coronavirus-induced deaths, we go on red alert. But allow me to contextualize the numbers for you.

(Disclaimer: The below compared populations are different (China vs. world), and infectious diseases do not maintain a consistent daily average. But the point still stands�)

On one of the worst days for Coronavirus in China (February 10, 2020), 108 people died. But on a given day, globally:

26,283 people die of cancer;
49,041 people die of cardiovascular diseases;
4,383 people die of diabetes.
Meanwhile, suicide takes on average 2,191 lives�.

Mosquitoes take the lives of over 2,740 people, and�.

And HUMANS kill an average of 1,287 fellow people, every single day."

The other point to make is that not NEARLY everyone who gets it dies. Many get it, stay home and recover. The people who possess other immunodeficiency problems are the ones who are fatal. Healthy people GENERALLY recover. AND we have NO CLUE what the number of those who recover is.

Living in fear is just stupid.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus
<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
Pete Legend
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Quote:
On Mar 11, 2020, Dannydoyle wrote:
2000: Y2K is going to kill us all (remember this one?)
2001: Anthrax is going to kill us all
2002: West Nile is going to kill us all
2003: SARS is going to kill us all
2005: BIRD flu is going to kill us all (Scary for Bird acts huh?)
2006: ECOLI is going to kill us all
2008: The bad economy is going to kill us all (Showing both political parties are not above being opportunists.)
2009: SWINE flu is going to kill us all
2010: BP oil is going to kill us all
2012: The Mayan calendar is going to kill us all (THIS was my personal favorite)
2013: North Korea is going to kill us all
2014: Ebola virus is going to kill us all
2015: Disney measles and ISIS are going to kill us all
2016: Zika virus is going to kill us all
2020: Corona Virus is going to kill us all

Stop buying in to the madness!

The STORY is the thing! That is what media of all stripes and flavors HAS to sell. It is all they have to sell.

This is a short list, and does not include things like the way they report hurricanes and natural disasters. (Even Global Climate Change is overblown on purpose. I am NOT saying it doesn't happen or isn't happening, I am saying they REPORT it to incite people. Always have.)

All we need to really do is quit listening to the nonsense.


Absolutely spot on!
Keith Raygor
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For those laying copious amounts of blame on the media:

* I wonder if the travel bans from Europe are a response to media's misrepresentations, or a response to the medical issue at hand?
* I also wonder if the NBA's suspension of games is their response to the media's overhype, or if they're trying to curb the spread of this disease that has shown to be 10 times more lethal than the common flu?
* Regarding the clients that are cancelling shows, are they overreacting to this media bias you're pointing out? Or are they trying to protect their employees and attendees by reacting to the speed at which the virus is spreading?

In 1976, I was compelled by the US government to get a vaccine against swine flu. So I've seen plenty more than those various viruses listed from the last 20 years (none of which I heard was going to "kill us all". That may be dramatic license.). But I can safely say that this one is different than ALL of those. Proof lies in the existence of this thread.
Dannydoyle
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So you believe that the media is acting responsibly? Ok that is a position to take.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus
<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
Keith Raygor
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No, and I haven't inferred that in any of my sentences. It also misses my point.
Dannydoyle
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The "panic" is real. Is it warranted? Hard to say as I AM NOT qualified to make that decision.

I DO KNOW that media only cares about people who pay attention to them. I DO KNOW they are irresponsible in every way imaginable and more.

That may or may not directly relate to the virus. It DIRECTLY relates to the perception of it.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus
<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
The Mysterious One
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Well, the projection from the Director of the CDC is not good. Best case scenario - .1% of the US population gets ill with a potential of 325 deaths. Worse case scenario - 50% of the population becomes ill with 1.6M deaths. No one knows how pervasive this pandemic will be. I have had a few cancelled gigs,and it is not going to alleviate anytime soon. Any live entertainment is going to take it in the shorts (including theaters and us). I know one thing for sure, a new normal is here that will hurt our bottom lines as entertainment businesses for at least the next few months, maybe longer. The virus is beyond scary to those of us that may have compromised immune systems, are over 60 and have underlying health issues, or have friends and families that fall into those categories.

Wishing for everyone to stay healthy. The panic is real, and hopefully Coronavirus is not as serious as projected. Even the best case scenario makes me sad. Being a person that had a coworker a floor above me exposed to Coronavirus (forcing everyone on that person's floor in self quarantine), a sister that work shutdown immediately today after her coworker contracted coronavirus (everyone is now in self quarantine), and a sister that saw Thailand, Vietnam, and Cambodia light years ahead of the US in terms of preparedness and prevention from her 10 week trip, we are definitely for a rough ride...financially, physically, and mentally.

Good magic and health to all...
The Mysterious One
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Correction - The CDC Ex-Director made those projections on Coronavirus

Also, I agree with David's assessments about the media. I have spent time looking at the CDC site and looking at several sources. It is important to look at facts from reputable sources (CDC). However, keep in mind that the CDC always estimate best case and worst case scenarios. Its worst case scenario in 2014 for Ebola was 1.4M dead. Thank God that didn't happen.

On a different note, I received an email from Cinemark's CEO talking about cleaning their theaters, training their employees (yes those teenagers that serve you popcorn) how to spot symptoms, clean thoroughly, etc. I had to roll my eyes. No matter what assurances are given, no one is going to movie theaters... A tough time is ahead for movie theaters as well...
Mindpro
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Long Post Warning! (If you don't like long posts, don't read this


I have been talking to many performers, entertainers, and entertainment business owners this past week. Everyone is on heightened emotions and concerns, ranging from wondering what�s happening, how long it will last, the expected ramifications of this, and what I think is going to happen? What will the other side of this be like?

So I will offer my thoughts and prediction on all of this. I thought I�d share it here so more people can hear it, perhaps create some perspective, and perhaps learn from it, and that their business can respond accordingly.

First, let�s separate a few things. Namely �react� and �respond" and "media" and social media" as both of these are at the heart of what is affecting you and your business. I should say this is directed at your business and operations, not you personally or your family.

How we respond anytime something like this is thrown at our business or industry, we have an initial decision to make - to react or respond. Reaction is usually emotion-based and can often be a reflex reaction. It is often your first reaction without much thought or knowledge behind it. Without a better understanding and the separating of facts from perceptions and opinions.

Responding are the actions we take once we understand to the best of our ability and have gathered facts and information to allow us to intelligently and strategically create a determination of how we �choose� to respond, carry on, prepare, and proceed.

I encourage everyone to understand these differences and to prevail by responding smartly and in the best interests of your business.

Next, I�ll address media vs. social media. The difference is credibility, facts, and sources. A great deal of the problem is due to reacting to social media. Unlike mainstream media, social media is based on opinions, theories, distorted views, fake, misperceived and/or completely taken out of context (or just completely made up) information. It is a �social" platform that anyone at any level of knowledge or intelligence (including lack thereof) can post information to the world. This must be remembered at all time. This is why there is panic and a frenzy in stores trying to find toilet paper, wipes, sanitizer, etc. This is really the first major pandemic in the mass social media era, and you can see the results. While social media is relatively new to situations like this, personal reactions have been around before this as well even with mainstream media (remember War of The Worlds?).

While mainstream media isn't always perfectly accurate, they are known for using legitimate sources such as the Center For Disease Control and others. They have protocol the use and follow and it often includes fact-checking, verifying, multiple sources, and direct contacts. It is not opinion-based or based on personal perceptions (leaving politics out of this), but rather legitimate sources and real-world, in the field resources. No, it may not be perfect, but it remains our best source for factual information being released.

Also understand how others are responding must be taken in the proper context. Business, large corporations and such must decide how they respond intelligently and strategically - IN THE BEST INTERESTS OF THEIR BUSINESS AND INDUSTRY. Also in the best interest of the clients and customers. So when someone cancels this or ceases their production, season, or events, yes, it is in part due to a safety and precautionary element, but it is also greatly in part due to perception, positioning, image, and strategy.

So, what do I think is going to happen?
First things are going to get weird, then they will get worse, then, yes, they will get better. For this initial period, it will be very strange and concerning. We must deal with what is in front of us. However, we must also think and plan how we will respond, our role in this, and strategize how we will want to deal and position our businesses as we come out of this whether it�s in two weeks, two months, or whenever. I don�t expect it to many months or two years as others are �predicting. However, the aftermath may have lingering effects.

What most people are going to do?
Most people will continue to panic until they see others lax�and then they'll stop.

They'll initially panic for two reasons:

First, because this is a new virus and potentially scary, and they are seeing how others are reacting.

Second, because of the media ...specifically social media - light on facts, heaving on opinion and here-say. As a society, we love to gossip and be involved, to share our thoughts, beliefs, and opinions. All �me-based� mentalities with an insatiable need to want to be heard. When so many people are trying to be heard the result is noise. Passing opinionated information on without fact or verification (sound familiar?).

The CDC and the World Health Organization is probably the best place to get your info about this situation

What does this mean for business?
Well, it depends? It depends on several things, but most of all HOW ARE YOU GOING TO RESPOND WITH YOUR BUSINESS? And Why?
Are you going to spend your time reading, listening to, and engaging in social media? Watching the news all day? And talking about it with people who know about the same as you do�or less?

Or are you going to take control and focus on your business?

Yes, of course, wash your hands, be aware, avoid crowded areas and situations, sanitize when you can, and stay at home if you can. Get tested if it gives you peace of mind, and check on the elderly - all good sound advice.

However, with that said�

Are you going to spend your time browsing social media, watching the news all day, and talking back and forth with people about this situation? Or are you going to FOCUS on business?

I recommend focusing on your business. Yes, your business may be affected by this and yes there may be some loss or changes (cancellations, postponements, rescheduling, etc.) but first, you need to decide how you want your business to respond to this with your clients, customers, and even new prospects. I suggest avoiding spreading misinformation or anything that leads to panic situations and positions. Context is important - both the context which you offer, but more importantly the context in which they receive your offered information.

As I�ve stated before view this as an opportunity. An opportunity to reach out to your clients and customers with concern, professionalism, helpfulness, and authority. Opportunity to shine on the other side of this and further your relationship. Opportunity to understand their positions and perspectives. An opportunity to educate and inform. To deal in real-world facts, solutions, and outcomes.

Also an opportunity to reconsider your business model. Those working gig to gig always going after your next booking are going to get hit the most. Those whose business model includes venues or events that are dependent on entertainment will likely rebound the quickest and be less affected in the greater picture.

Remember, most others, including your competition, will be following the herd with conventional thinking, reactions, and concern. Some may become paralyzed not doing what to think or do, while still browsing social media, getting caught up in the hype and fear, and reading everything (real, factual, or misinformation) about the coronavirus and focusing on the negatives - closings, increased numbers being reported, stores with empty shelves, what their neighbors are saying/doing, ...while simultaneously trying to separate fact from fiction, and of course watching the news for updates on everything coronavirus.�

That means they're NOT conducting business, promoting, generating business, and serving their clients, customers, and accounts. Not responding. Many will stop advertising and marketing, and continue generating business, relationships, and bookings. They simply easily decide the easiest path - �I�ll just have to wait and see what happens.�

The truth is your market is experiencing the same thing everyone else is. Uncertainty, concern, worry, and disruption. Your market needs a leader. Someone to lead, offer comfort, reiterate common business sense. Take advantage of this - stand up, lead, be the authority to others. You are the professional - serve your customers, their concerns, interests, and needs - just as good business should be doing on a regular and continual basis. The difference is in this current situation you will stand out and be recognized. Your efforts will be noticed and your efforts can make a difference in their mindset and level of comfort. Disarm the alarm.

Use this knowledge, behaviors, and how others are reacting and responding to your business advantage. This is a much better use of your time and energy. This will have beneficial results.

Now here is my greatest concern to our businesses�
Depending on how long this goes on, things may never be the same as before. Many working professionals performing for 20 years or more remember 9/11. Before 9/11 we had many bookings for companies, events, corporations, and such that regularly had guest audiences/attendees of 500, 800, or 1200 or more at every event or Grand Ballroom holiday party. As 9/11 and the aftermath occurred, many canceled their holiday events, trade shows, and other events for the near and foreseeable future. That holiday season many performers took a huge hit from holiday parties. Many thought that might be expected but thought it would bounce back for the following year.

It didn�t. Parties and events never got back to the numbers and attendance as pre-9/11. Instead smaller, departmental events prevailed. Company-wide events have never been the same. There became a new norm. Some performers died and couldn�t sustain. Others adapted, followed industry trends and information on the new re-established norm, and adapted their business to these new norms.

So regardless of what happens, there will be the other side of this. If this goes on more than 6-8 weeks or a few months or more, I suspect there will be a new norm for many.

We're going to get through this. Put your time, effort and energy into your business, serving your customers and clients, and strategizing moves that are best for your clients, performance markets, and your own business. Be proactive. Waiting to see will only put you behind the 8-ball and others being more aggressive towards their business.

Information Update: Restaurants and bars will be closing starting tomorrow.

Many here know I am on several regional and national school advisory boards and have been meeting almost daily recently. Those working the school market will learn of a major announcement on Tuesday. While many schools are currently closing for a couple to several weeks over an around Spring Break, the CDC is suggesting longer closures of 8 - 20 weeks to have the desired, greater impact needed.

I have been getting many requests for (entertainment business) coaching/consulting during this difficult period. I am not planning on taking on any more students at this time. Many are asking for a temporary 90-day coaching as I did back in 2016. I will monitor this and if there is enough interest will likely post any related information in the Coaching thread here in Tricky Business.

Those asking about my own business, I am currently on my annual Spring Tour. I have had one gig cancel for next Friday (2 shows). I have two other tours that we produce that have been suspended (5 remaining shows) with full pay to everyone as part of them. These will likely be rescheduled later this Summer if possible. That�s all as of today.

On the other hand, bookings are still coming in and while not 100% as strong as normal I�d say still coming in at about 80% capacity, with booking still every day through Saturday of this week. Many are asking about �what-ifs� regarding the events and contracts which is of course to be expected.

I will post more updates as received. Stay strong!
imgic
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Washington state just announced closing of all restaurants, bars, and entertainment venues. Restaurants may offer carry-out and delivery, but no seated service. Gatherings larger than 50 people are forbidden.

Have heard other states announcing similar restrictions
"Imagination is more important than knowledge."
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