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Decomposed
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Eternal Order
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China no new cases...

All bars and restaurants closed here for 7 days. Can be extended,
Dannydoyle
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Getting on the other side of the slope is the important part. It looks and feels bleak because it came out of nowhere.

I have heard we are a couple weeks behind China in this thing. Now we acted much quicker and had them to look to as a warning. No new cases there seems meaningful.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus
<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
Brainbu$ter
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Quote:
On Mar 19, 2020, Dannydoyle wrote:
But the more who yet it AND RECOVER with no hospital skews the projection drastically. Wouldn't you agree? The more testing will show WAY more cases and when that number comes in I think some panic will subsidie a bit. Right now it the unknown everyone is running from.


Yes, I agree. Once everyone has it and has either recovered or died, then I think it won't be a problem anymore.
But the rate this is going, too many are gonna catch it at the same time.
When that happens (and it will happen abruptly) the hospitals won't be ready for the influx of new faces.

Quote:
And your 3% figure is way high because of what I mentioned.


Recovered people don't transmit it anymore, which is good, but the CDC probably put that in their projections.
Let's say the average lethality across all ages is 1%.
That average is distorted because nobody (fingers crossed) dies from it under age 40.
So lots more young people catch it and live. Ages 0-49 = 0% fatality

Lethality of coronavirus for age 70-80 is 12%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coron......atistics

Since the virus focuses its fatality on a small age segment,
if you take the average lethality percentage of all ages, you'll end up with near 0%.

The virus kills 12% of all infected, for ages 70-80.
0% deaths ages 0-60.

If you average the lethality across all ages, that equals 1.5% lethality.

But despite that 1.5% figure, if you're 70, it's 12% lethality.

Look at the people telling us the information--the doctors, politicians, germ experts--they are mostly 70+ years old.
So this may be more scary to them and their friends.

Note: It may have been worse in Italy than it will be in USA (and in the near future, as a magician, I predict the same for Mexico for the same reason...mark my words). Because, in Italy (and in Mexico), they hug and kiss strangers as much as we (in USA) shake hands.

Quote:
For perspective 60,000,000 were infected with Swine Flu. 16,000 died in 10 months IN AMERICA for both those numbers.

It seems as if ther RO is lower for this than Swine Flu. I'm confused and nobody is clearing it up.


Well, as a magician, let me tell you about the Swine Flu.
I don't know anything about it.
Maybe it's because Swine Flu kills instantly, or they don't need ventilators, so less hospital burden.
Or maybe because 16,000 across the USA spread out over 10 months was tolerable,
and they project this bug has more potential (for disruption).

Quote:
BUT I agree 100% with following protocols and guidelines in place! My lack of understanding does not need to be dangerous. I don't understand a 10 PM curfew, but I don't go out.


As a magician, my understanding of the curfew is that only young people go out after 10 p.m.
Young people plus infectious disease is a nasty combination.

Young people tend to:

feel invincible
be more reckless
more mobile
adventurous
less responsible
they play spin the bottle
god knows what these days

In short, someone out after 10 p.m. is likely a young person going out to meet 10 other young people.

You started with one carrier at 11 p.m., next morning you've got 10 carriers.
Next night, same thing. But now start with 10 carriers, next morning 100 carriers.
Donald Dunphy
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It's my understanding that they closed schools in China about 6 to 7 weeks ago. So, we aren't really 2 weeks behind them.

- Donald
Donald Dunphy is a Victoria Magician, British Columbia, Canada.
Dannydoyle
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Eternal Order
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Quote:
On Mar 19, 2020, Donald Dunphy wrote:
It's my understanding that they closed schools in China about 6 to 7 weeks ago. So, we aren't really 2 weeks behind them.

- Donald


We are reacting differently. That is the point.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus
<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
Dannydoyle
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Quote:
On Mar 19, 2020, Brainbu$ter wrote:
Quote:
On Mar 19, 2020, Dannydoyle wrote:
But the more who yet it AND RECOVER with no hospital skews the projection drastically. Wouldn't you agree? The more testing will show WAY more cases and when that number comes in I think some panic will subsidie a bit. Right now it the unknown everyone is running from.


Yes, I agree. Once everyone has it and has either recovered or died, then I think it won't be a problem anymore.
But the rate this is going, too many are gonna catch it at the same time.
When that happens (and it will happen abruptly) the hospitals won't be ready for the influx of new faces.

Quote:
And your 3% figure is way high because of what I mentioned.


Recovered people don't transmit it anymore, which is good, but the CDC probably put that in their projections.
Let's say the average lethality across all ages is 1%.
That average is distorted because nobody (fingers crossed) dies from it under age 40.
So lots more young people catch it and live. Ages 0-49 = 0% fatality

Lethality of coronavirus for age 70-80 is 12%.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coron......atistics

Since the virus focuses its fatality on a small age segment,
if you take the average lethality percentage of all ages, you'll end up with near 0%.

The virus kills 12% of all infected, for ages 70-80.
0% deaths ages 0-60.

If you average the lethality across all ages, that equals 1.5% lethality.

But despite that 1.5% figure, if you're 70, it's 12% lethality.

Look at the people telling us the information--the doctors, politicians, germ experts--they are mostly 70+ years old.
So this may be more scary to them and their friends.

Note: It may have been worse in Italy than it will be in USA (and in the near future, as a magician, I predict the same for Mexico for the same reason...mark my words). Because, in Italy (and in Mexico), they hug and kiss strangers as much as we (in USA) shake hands.

Quote:
For perspective 60,000,000 were infected with Swine Flu. 16,000 died in 10 months IN AMERICA for both those numbers.

It seems as if ther RO is lower for this than Swine Flu. I'm confused and nobody is clearing it up.


Well, as a magician, let me tell you about the Swine Flu.
I don't know anything about it.
Maybe it's because Swine Flu kills instantly, or they don't need ventilators, so less hospital burden.
Or maybe because 16,000 across the USA spread out over 10 months was tolerable,
and they project this bug has more potential (for disruption).

Quote:
BUT I agree 100% with following protocols and guidelines in place! My lack of understanding does not need to be dangerous. I don't understand a 10 PM curfew, but I don't go out.


As a magician, my understanding of the curfew is that only young people go out after 10 p.m.
Young people plus infectious disease is a nasty combination.

Young people tend to:

feel invincible
be more reckless
more mobile
adventurous
less responsible
they play spin the bottle
god knows what these days

In short, someone out after 10 p.m. is likely a young person going out to meet 10 other young people.

You started with one carrier at 11 p.m., next morning you've got 10 carriers.
Next night, same thing. But now start with 10 carriers, next morning 100 carriers.


Not everyone who gets it NEEDS a hospital to recover. That is the reality important number here. The people getting it are more likely to die with underlying ailments from ANYTHING.

None of what you pose counters anything I've said sorry. And the idea that everyone will get it is ridiculous. You can't assume across the board that it is lethal or even noticeable to everyone the same way.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus
<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
Brainbu$ter
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Quote:
On Mar 18, 2020, Donald Dunphy wrote:
Some might find this video helpful, in understanding what's going on.

I saw it on the PBS page on Facebook, but here is a YouTube link.



- Donald


Thanks for that video! I learned a lot.

Here is a similar video from a channel called "In a Nutshell"
(it makes cartoons to explain stuff clearly to people like me).

Quote from the video:
"To do it properly, wash your hands as if you've just cut up some jalepenos and want to put in your contacts next."

Dannydoyle
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Eternal Order
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I am just amazed by how many people think hand washing is a new concept.

I'm much more worried for society because of THAT than this virus.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus
<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
Brainbu$ter
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Quote:
On Mar 19, 2020, Dannydoyle wrote:
I am just amazed by how many people think hand washing is a new concept.

I'm much more worried for society because of THAT than this virus.


Well, worry no more, because now everyone's probably washing their hands.

Since more are washing their hands now (and washing them more thoroughly),
maybe we'll see a reduction in other illnesses as well.
Blaze Magic
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So far the coronavirus has been playing out pretty close to how I feared it would, and just some things which I think people should take into account:
1. At a 1% death rate, it could easily kill around 2 million Americans. That 1% assumes proper medical treatment though, and the hospitals could fill up very fast, so 7% could easily become the new figure if it isn�t contained.
2. While it certainly has a bigger effect on older people, that doesn�t mean it can�t also have a big impact on younger people. I see a 14 year old died of it, but death rates aside, so who live often end up with permanent lung scarring for the rest of their lives.
3. If you already have a medical issue like asthma, your chances of dying (and being denied treatment at all if the hospitals are too over run) so way up.

I know there have been a lot of scares in the past like sars which ended up vanishing, but a lot of the reason it vanished is it was taken seriously to begin with. Almost every world leader has not taken the coronavirus seriously until very recently, and a lot of people are going to suffer because of it.
Dannydoyle
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Wow just wrong.

First off your 2 million figure ASSUMES 100% infection in the first place. A ridicules assumption. Also it is killing a very specific demographic. NOT across ther board.

We have no idea how many get it and recover without going to a hospital.

You really are scared and that is because you don't understand and are letting that lack of understanding scare you.

So nobody should take the things you mention into account. They spread panic and this is not what is needed.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus
<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
Blaze Magic
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I said 2 million if it wasn�t contained, which assumes roughly a 60% infection rate of the US with a 1% death rate.
As it is, measures are being taken to contain it, otherwise realistically 80% if the population would be more realistic, and at least a 5% death rate as very few people could get medical treatment, which would bring us to over 13 million deaths. As it is, it is likely to only kill thousands of all goes well, but there is a reason the Spanish Flu killed more people than World War 1
Dannydoyle
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It is fear mongering and just not helpful.

We HAVE taken measures, it is NOT 1918 and a HUGE percentage who are infected recover.

Spreading fear is not helpful.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus
<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
Dannydoyle
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Again simply concentrating on the bad and overlooking what is actually happening is not good it is fear mongering. Period.

You are an infectious disease expert? If not then really your Monday morning quarterback version of when things should and should not be done is as bad as mine is. We can't deal in alternate realities, we can only deal with the world as it is. The world is it is quite honestly is difficult enough for me.

It doesn't matter how many would recover from pneumonia untreated. How many would recover from the common cold untreated? How many would recover from an ingrown toenail untreated? Who cares? The main point is your numbers are just skewed to show something bad.

See there is no "my version" of events. There is only the version of events playing out in front of us right now. THAT is the "version of events" that I prefer to deal with. Not some made up scenario that I put together out of fear.

Again please state your credentials as an expert in infectious disease and I will take that into consideration. Until then it is fear based opinion and less than helpful. The PANIC is worse than the disease.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus
<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
Blaze Magic
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I have said twice now that measures have been taken. I personally think they should have been taken far sooner and most countries have been doing a terrible job overall, but I have no argument against the fact they have been taken.

What percentage are going to recover from pneumonia when they don't have access to treatment?
In your version of events, what do you believe the death rate would be if everyone just treated it like the flu? (which already has a pretty sizeable death rate itself).

Edit: Actually I don't think I said measures had been taken in my very first post. I thought that was obvious though, at least for people in Western countries.
Dannydoyle
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The number that nobody knows, and it is probably THE most important number, is how many recover WITHOUT treatment or even knowing they had it in the first place? In other words exhibit MILD symptoms and simply don't know they have it at all. The HIGHER this number is, the BETTER it is for the world. It means "heard immunity" takes hold pretty quickly. This is the number that matters a lot to this. Can you see that? It changes the "death rate" you are so scared of. If 90,000,000 people get it, and 3,000 die that is a much different "death rate" (Scary term huh?) than if 100,000 people get it and 3,000 die. That is how numbers work. You don't get to fill in all your own to make the worst case scenario and sell the fear. (Oh wait that IS what happens.)

What would happen if just the flu hit Africa? Or if smallpox or common cold even? It would be devastating. So your point, while valid, is meaningless.

Being cautious is wonderful and needs to be done. Actions need to be taken. Drastic in some cases it seems but they know better than I. BUT FEAR is just not the way to approach this.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus
<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
Blaze Magic
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Ignoring the incredibly tragedy that is likely to befall those African countries and sticking just with America:
1. Just how many people do you think the US is currently capable of treating for pneumonia currently?
2. Why will things be different in American in a few weeks than they are in Italy right now? I know America has a number of advantages, but they also have some very big disadvantages.
Dannydoyle
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My lord not EVERY case needs a pneumonia treatment. You just ignore my points to put forth fear. Is this the reason you joined the Magic Caf�?

Italy did not take the measures the US did when it was at this level now did they?

Start a corona virus fear or treatment thread if you want to continue. None of this is helpful.
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus
<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
Mindpro
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Yeah, now we're getting into opinions, theories, and personal fears, yet nothing about how this is affecting your business or the cancellations of bookings due to current circumstances. Even in the proper context of this thread, spreading fear isn't really beneficial. How is this helping anyone?
Dannydoyle
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All I know for certain is America can save the world by sitting in front of the TV doing nothing. I hope we don't screw it up.

I have been training for this MY WHOLE LIFE!
Danny Doyle
<BR>Semper Occultus
<BR>In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth is a revolutionary act....George Orwell
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