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trenchant New user 54 Posts |
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On 2004-07-08 13:03, snilsson wrote: Well, it is certainly true that Blackjack games in almost all European casinos cannot be beat by counting. The rules are atrocious, and the cards are reshuffled into an eight-card shoe after each hand, making counting pointless. However, there are still beatable games in Las Vegas, and there are some people who can play successfully. I've financed quite a few lovely holidays with blackjack play. In fact, all the money I now play with used to belong to some casino. You are right: there are a lot of people who think they can count successfully who are simply deluding themselves. I'm reasonably sure I am not one of the delusional, since I keep meticulous records, and my win-rate is consistent with mathematical expectations. I've been doing it for about 15 years without being backed off by very many casinos (and those happened when I was green and didn't know how to cover well). |
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snilsson Regular user Stockholm, Sweden 186 Posts |
Trenchant,
I have no reason to disbelieve your story. What you claim is clearly possible. I just want to add that my decision to avoid the game is based on thorough research on Blackjack as played in Las Vegas. With a PhD in theoretical computer science and an avid interest in magic, I guess this was unavoidable. I checked all the standard sources on card counting (including the Internet discussion groups) and also did extensive computer simulations of different playing conditions and strategies, obviously including factors such as house rules, bet spread, penetration, dealer and player error rates, etc. Shuffle tracking and tells are of course more difficult to simulate. The most surprising thing to me was that the variance of the game is extremely high. This is something which is not clearly described in most texts on card counting. This was one of the main reasons I decided to stay away from the game. The bad working conditions ware another one. |
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mattH Veteran user 324 Posts |
Bringing Down the House is an excellent book.
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trenchant New user 54 Posts |
Snilsson, the reputable books are clear about variance, although they often don't call it that.
"Blackjack for Blood", for instance, dedicates a lot of time to discussing how much of a bankroll is prudent to ride out the variance. Arnold Snyder is also very clear in his books that you will probably lose, even if you count well. Zender, a former casino executive, used to appear in the Usenet fora to invite counters to his casino because he realized that most of us would fail. Griffin was also pretty clear in his book, as I recall (and, as a "numbers-sort-of-guy/gal, you might enjoy it). You are right. Even the best of us can't expect much more than a win-rate of a little over one average bet per hour over the long run (and any smart player knows that anything can happen over the short run). If you are putting down average bets that make playing worthwhile (unless you are playing with a team), you tend to draw too much attention. There are a lot better ways to make more money, and make it faster. It's a grind. It's boring; you reek of cigarette smoke after an morning in a casino; and you have to put up with lot of drunks and other annoyances. And, you must be emotionally and financially prepared for the emotional downs of the inevitable "losing streaks." If someone does this to get rich, they are misguided. I did it for the challenge. I'd never consider doing it for a living. We all have hobbies. P.S. 1) You may want to check out the site I listed above for a pretty good shuffle tracking program. The author of the programs is a nice guy. With your background, I imagine the two of you could have some great discussion about the futility of blackjack play. 2) Dealer tells have become irrelevant in most Las Vegas casinos since the hole card is checked electronically only for a ten-value or Ace, leaving nothing for the dealer to "tell." |
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snilsson Regular user Stockholm, Sweden 186 Posts |
Great post. That's exactly what I suspected. Unfortunately few people are as clear-sighted as you. When reading the card-counting forums, you get the impression that most wannabe card counters are just as deluded as most wannabe magicians.
Sorry, I couldn't resist. |
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erniep33 New user Marysville, WA 72 Posts |
If you're looking for a way to make money playing cards, learn how to play poker. Not that it's any easier (to be a good player at least), but IMO it's a lot more fun and you can make quite a bit of money doing it.
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magicmanchris Regular user 113 Posts |
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On 2004-07-08 20:15, Ryan 101 wrote: Quote:
I am not tring to incorporate this into an effect. I just want to know how to do it for personal satisfaction. I would like to learn center counts, and I know how to second deal. P.S. Thank you all for your input. I have a ton of material to look into now. .
your magic is only real when you believe it's real.
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Mike Walton Special user Chicago 984 Posts |
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On 2004-07-08 12:23, skillz wrote: I have that same book. It's pure rubbish. The pitboss was a lout. |
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CamelotFX Special user Minnesota 596 Posts |
Edward Thorpe (with an "e") published "Beat the Dealer" in 1962. In "The Odds Against Me," John Scarne makes Thorpe sound larger-than-life as his arch-nemesis in the Havana casinos.
I knew several pros back in the 70's who swore by Thorpe's method but outside of "Rain Man," I think anyone who can count through a multi-deck shoe would have constant migraines. There must be easier ways to make a living. |
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ASW Inner circle 1879 Posts |
Ah... nothing.
Whenever I find myself gripping anything too tightly I just ask myself "How would Guy Hollingworth hold this?"
A magician on the Genii Forum "I would respect VIPs if they respect history." Hideo Kato |
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